Day 1 Lynch vs No Lynch

[DirtyDishSoap]

I wanted to bring this up and not make a huge ridiculous post in a game where it would just clutter it up. It's pretty evident that this site demands a Day 1 lynch, for x amount of reasons, and while I support my own, and I know some people have brought their own reasoning's, I wanted to use some outside sources to help support the argument for both sides, and it'll save me a lot of leg work.

Also, I got sick of debating this in-game when it should be more for discussion.

http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/36913-Day-1-Lynch-Policy-Analysed
(It stands to reason that these same statistics provided would be similar to CC's, but for the sake of the argument, I'll take 20 games with a lynch and a no lynch (40 games in total) to validate the claim. I'm at work at the time of this post so my time is limited, getting all this info every other hour has been hard enough. Give me time. ).
https://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthread.php/526350-NO-Lynch-Strategy

A post on the statistical considerations of first-day lynchings:

(TL;DR version: Don't lynch on day 1 if you can avoid it.)


The exact numbers involved in this will vary highly depending on the number of players and the number of mafia members. However, in general, it is a benefit to the village to not lynch on the first day (if the rules make it possible), as I will try to show here.

First of all, in almost all cases, the first day lynch will be completely random; there simply is not anything solid to go by in the first day. This means that first-day lynches can therefore be looked at from a purely statistical perspective. One important consideration to keep in mind which stems from this: There will almost always be one less villager the second day (because of the mafia's kill) than the first day, and this improves your chances of randomly guessing a mafia member. For example, in a game featuring 6 players with 1 mafia member, each villager's chance of guessing the mafia correctly on the first night is only 1-in-5, or 20% (remember, any villager guessing would be discounting themselves), whereas waiting a night and letting the mafia kill someone improves that chance to 1-in-4, or 25%.

Secondly, if there are an even number of players, then it is possible for the village to gain an extra day in a worst-case scenario (repeatedly lynching villagers) if they refrain from lynching on the first day. As an example, using a game starting off with 10 players, two of whom are mafia members:



Day Lynch on Day 1 No lynch on Day 1
1 10 10
2 8 9
3 6 7
4 4 5
5 2 (loss) 3
6 --- 1 (loss)






Keep in mind that, so long as the village is able to control the lynch vote, there is a chance of victory... so, that extra day means that there is still a hope of victory after the point when the first-day lynch would have led to a village loss.

Putting off a first-day lynch improves the chances of the village winning (though with closer victories) in almost all cases, but delaying past that tends to hurt the village. To illustrate how large of an effect this can have, I'll provide some probabilities from three hypothetical games. While the actual math is a bit too space-consuming to put here, the odds of victory (given purely random lynching each day) for these games are as follows:

In a 6-person match with one mafia member:

First lynch on day 1: 38% chance of village win, 63% chance of mafia win. Average of 3.89 villagers left if the village wins.
First lynch on day 2: 47% chance of village win, 53% chance of mafia win. Average of 2.86 villagers left if the village wins.
First lynch on day 3: 50% chance of village win, 50% chance of mafia win. Average of 3.0 villagers left if the village wins.

In a 10-person match with two mafia members:

First lynch on day 1: 22% chance of village win, 78% chance of mafia win. Average of 4.04 villagers left if village wins.
First lynch on day 2: 30% chance of village win, 70% chance of mafia win. Average of 2.98 villagers left if village wins.
First lynch on day 3: 16% chance of village win, 84% chance of mafia win. Average of 3.53 villagers left if village wins.

In a 12-person match with three mafia members:

First lynch on day 1: 11% chance of a village win, 89% chance of a mafia win. Average of 3.71 villagers left if the village wins.
First lynch on day 2: 16% chance of a village win, 84% chance of a mafia win. Average of 2.65 villagers left if the village wins.
First lynch on day 3: 7% chance of a village win, 93% chance of a mafia win. Average of 3.36 villagers left if the village wins.



Appendix: Chances of you randomly guessing a mafia member, by number of remaining players (chances are per remaining mafia member; multiply by the number of mafia members left to get actual chances)



Players (including you) Chance
3 50%
4 33.3%
5 25%
6 20%
7 16.7%
8 14.3%
9 12.5%
10 11.1%
11 10
12 9.1%
13 8.3%
14 7.7%
15 7.1%
17 6.7%
18 6.3%
19 5.6%
20 5.3%
Mainly used this one to help support the no lynch in statistical terms.

As for my own brief stance, that I'm sure, by now, everyone is well aware of, I don't agree with the lynch policy on Days 1.

1. You have a joke phase that lasts for several pages and then it becomes an awkward accusations phase afterwards. I tend to look at it as if it's a meet and greet.

2. Accusations are mostly baseless. Nothing concrete to follow up on, no roles to confirm or deny claims. The argument of "feeling" for a players reaction to bandwagons or pressure from others is, while a decent tool, I don't believe it serves any purpose later. It's almost as if it's like town hunting instead of scum hunting. You may have someone reveal as cop or doc and that just hurts.

3. "Its for the benefit of the town!". I disagree. Look at it strategically. Is 2 dead town better than 1 dead town? In some cases I believe luck plays a bigger part of it than anything. For example, the game currently running at the time of this post (Lion King) a Vig killed a scum. While I applaud a job well done, I whole heartedly believe that it was 100% luck with no other factual evidence being in play.

4. Lynching is the towns most powerful tool. I agree with this statement to a fault. There's been many a time when the town simply gets lynch happy and just suicides to death. It's a minor double edged sword, by minor I mean that it can sway in scum's favor if there is enough misinformation or abuse of the vote. Remember, scum can also vote and with enough persuasion, can get others lynched. I think Day 1 can apply to this more heavily than the others when there are no roles to oust a scum.

5. Town can take the hit over scum. I agree and disagree. On one hand, if the lynchee turns out to be a useless role such as a miller or something similar with no night ability, on another, people can't seem to grasp the concept that losing a jail, doc, cop or another power role is simply devastating. Even backing people into a corner may have them be revealed and killed outright. However, I realize that scum are way more pressured if they were to lose one, and therefor, have to be careful. This is why I notice a lot of lurkers/submariners during the Day 1 phase after the joking subsides. No one wants to be a target and no one wants to be killed Day 1, regardless if it's for "The Greater Good".

6. Cons. Con's are pretty obvious but I believe it wouldn't have any impact on the outcome of the game. No one will feel pressure during the Day 1 phase if everyone plays the "No Lynch" card. There wouldn't be much of a day phase outside of just the typical "whats up lolz". Some argue that scum get a free pass. I'd like to think that it's Town erring on the side of caution rather than risking ousting power roles and or lynching them by accident. Statics are honestly a horrible reference to use in a game where gathering information is key, however, it stands to reason that even a game such as this, patterns do develop in a grander scale, basically, I can see both sides of the spectrum but I'm choosing one over the other, which is apparently wrong.


I am by no means saying "HEY CC! CHANGE YOUR PLAYSTYLE AND POLICY!" I am merely advocating my stance and what others (Apparently across the web as well) the pro's and con's to a no lynch. I'm also, again, making this post so we don't have to have another debate the merits of lynching vs not lynching on Days 1.

I whole heartedly respect people's playstyles and approach on their game. Chu, Ragian (You poor f*ck lol), Mandy, and Hotshot to name a few. If it suits your style, it suits your style.

Let's try and keep this discussion here rather than in-game from now on, I feel like it'll be one of those that would be re-occurring.

Disclaimer: I am by no means attempting to take an in-game topic outside to here, nor am I attempting to relieve myself of pressure inside of Lion King. I simply wanted to avoid a 3rd or 4th or infinite amount of discussion of the pros and cons of a no lynch.

[IcePack]

I lean more towards no lunch then lynch. But there are also times I do feel like compelling arguments can be made and might have a feeling in my gut that tells me a specific person might be mafia.

Now, statistically the odds aren't great but while I admit it's totally a gut call, sometimes I'm willing to join up on a lynch day 1 if it's the right target.

While the odds aren't great, I guess I see the odds getting better based mostly on incomplete data and my gut. I trust my gut. My gut says pizza tastes good, and it does

[Fircoal]

I still do believe it's best to almost always lynch if you can, and Day 1 is no exception. That said it really does depend on the game.

For example if Benga hadn't made it clear he was lynch material in Civ Mafia, that would have been a game that no lynching would have been good. In general the more power roles that town has the safer it is for town to no lynch because their other powers might be more useful. However the less power roles there are, the stupider it is to no lynch. No lynching in a game of townies and mafia seems terrible imo unless it's to make the numbers odd.

Which speaking of exceptions here's one:

If you have 8 players, and 2 mafia, and this is known then town should always no lunch. The reason is increasing odds it's beter to get the town to an odd size so that town will always have better odds. Both 6-2 and 5-2 are lylo choices at that point. Even with a doc it's not a safe bet at all.

However this relies on there being only one kill a night, if you do not know that's true, it's not worth it.

I also feel like to get good day 2 info you need some day 1 bickering and lynching, except for if power roles come through.

[Samlen]

That's just it, there are almost always multiple power roles and those are arguably the town's strongest tools, not lynching. The information gathering by said power roles is what helps significantly improve the odds of town lynching a non-town member. On day 1, when town power roles have no information, it's pretty much purely statistical. The only reason why scum would be lynched day 1 is a) We get lucky or b) Scum doesn't play like town. Maybe that's why lynching on day 1 is so common here: because people aren't good enough at playing scum the same way they play town (I haven't played enough here to know but I'd like the vets here to weigh in on this idea). Either that or the abnormal setups aren't balanced in scum's favor (I'm looking at the civ game where lack of knowledge that town knew lead to multiple scum lynches. The whole point is that scum knows more than town and it was practically flipped/even in terms of knowledge). It's a complicated issue and it can vary depending on the setup but logically speaking, there is very little reason to lynch day 1.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I still do believe it's best to almost always lynch if you can, and Day 1 is no exception. That said it really does depend on the game.

For example if Benga hadn't made it clear he was lynch material in Civ Mafia, that would have been a game that no lynching would have been good. In general the more power roles that town has the safer it is for town to no lynch because their other powers might be more useful. However the less power roles there are, the stupider it is to no lynch. No lynching in a game of townies and mafia seems terrible imo unless it's to make the numbers odd.

Which speaking of exceptions here's one:

If you have 8 players, and 2 mafia, and this is known then town should always no lunch. The reason is increasing odds it's beter to get the town to an odd size so that town will always have better odds. Both 6-2 and 5-2 are lylo choices at that point. Even with a doc it's not a safe bet at all.

However this relies on there being only one kill a night, if you do not know that's true, it's not worth it.

I also feel like to get good day 2 info you need some day 1 bickering and lynching, except for if power roles come through.

You could also switch that argument with preferring 2 dead over 3 dead, and so on and so forth. The amount of night kills increasing doesn't support the argument anymore than mine supports a 1 over 2 and so on.

[Fircoal]

I still do believe it's best to almost always lynch if you can, and Day 1 is no exception. That said it really does depend on the game.

For example if Benga hadn't made it clear he was lynch material in Civ Mafia, that would have been a game that no lynching would have been good. In general the more power roles that town has the safer it is for town to no lynch because their other powers might be more useful. However the less power roles there are, the stupider it is to no lynch. No lynching in a game of townies and mafia seems terrible imo unless it's to make the numbers odd.

Which speaking of exceptions here's one:

If you have 8 players, and 2 mafia, and this is known then town should always no lunch. The reason is increasing odds it's beter to get the town to an odd size so that town will always have better odds. Both 6-2 and 5-2 are lylo choices at that point. Even with a doc it's not a safe bet at all.

However this relies on there being only one kill a night, if you do not know that's true, it's not worth it.

I also feel like to get good day 2 info you need some day 1 bickering and lynching, except for if power roles come through.

You could also switch that argument with preferring 2 dead over 3 dead, and so on and so forth. The amount of night kills increasing doesn't support the argument anymore than mine supports a 1 over 2 and so on.

huh? Increasing night kills COMPLETELY changes the argument.

The reason why you need to be sure of 1 night kill is because having too much variability changes the math so there is no longer a way to gauntee that town will be at the best odds at lylo. That's pretty much the only reason town'd want to no lynch. It'd be either to set up the best lylo and odds as soon as possible or to use overwhelming power roles to their advantage.

[nagerous]

Care to make a poll? No lynching makes no sense in my eyes, you are just giving the advantage to the mafia. The town's strongest power is the vote and by waiving that right the whole day one is just completely wasted.

[Samlen]

I'd argue the town power roles are more important. Their actions can confirm/deny whether people should be lynched and provide actual solid info for lynching someone. In a game without town powerroles or only one/two then it depends on how many people there are. No-lynching with an even number of players gives the town one more day before lylo and with a smaller pool of people to choose to lynch by day 2 it's a slightly higher chance of lynching a mafia on subsequent days without loosing a day by lynching day 1. If there are more than 2 town power roles, i'd argue them carrying out their actions would give us more info than a lynch day 1 since a day 1 lynch could be over anything and gives us no info even with a dead person.

tl;dr Should always no-lynch day 1 if even amount of people and no-lynch with odd number of people if town power roles are more than 1/2

[DirtyDishSoap]

Care to make a poll? No lynching makes no sense in my eyes, you are just giving the advantage to the mafia. The town's strongest power is the vote and by waiving that right the whole day one is just completely wasted.

The poll would be favored to lynch on a Day 1, on this site. I pointed that out earlier when I made this post. This is mostly to debate about the logistics behind a no lynch vs lynch.

@Fircoal
The only way I'd concede that argument is if there was an increase in night kills but no increase in players in game IE: A 12 player game where there is two hostile night kill abilities.
Otherwise, if the player count increases to say 20 in game and there was two night kill abilities, then I'd prefer two dead over three. And even then, we're under the assumption that there would be two night kill abilities, not just one.

Otherwise, the argument is still valid for one dead town over two dead town.


-I'm still making a list of the 50 games to weigh in the w/l rate for town when there is and isn't a day 1 lynch present.

[strike wolf]

The idea of going for a lynch no lynch in itself is not the only reason to have the lynch. It's also to give the impression that one is actually going to be lynched when the votes start piling. People react differently when they feel they are actually under pressure to be lynched versus discussion. People who are under pressure tend to react more impulsively and less calmly and more slips can be inferred and if we're lucky the slips can be clear enough that one can make a good guess at whether it is an actual scum slip or just an innocent slip. It's not 100% accurate but it does help. Forming wagons also helps pull out how people attack and defend with those wagons. Benga in Civ isn't actually the worst example. Even though we caught him for lack of town knowledge after Nag's doc typo, he had first gotten my attention from being an overly zealous on defending Dakky (town especially early don't tend to be as zealous in their defenses because doubt gets in the way of fully pushing through their beliefs). Most simply though, going for the lynch creates more discussion. A consensus early for a no lynch leads to people not really talking about much. you'd have to find an alternative to discuss to get the game going and opinions on people can be more easily verified or denied if there is a sample lynch to go on at the end of the day. For these reasons, town should almost always go into Day 1 with the intention to lynch even when actually lynching scum is statistically against them. There are points where town can get enough info from Day 1 where a lynch is no longer necessary but lynching or at least the threat of lynching is the tool by which we get enough info to judge when is a good time to go into night.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I get your argument that its psychological and people are determining what is scummy vs not scummy. The name of the game is information gathering, but what exactly does this accomplish later in day 2? Can you think of a game where in day 1 there was something incredibly crucial that was overlooked that could implicate someone to be scum? Like, an actual lead. Something that makes a good case into the next day. Because what I usually see out of personal experience is that nothing from days 1 is of any use. Nothing of actual substance carries over. Days 1, again to me, is a meet and greet. It wouldn't have any substantial impact if there was a lynch vs a no lynch. I see one side being slightly more beneficial over the other however.

[strike wolf]

I've played and forgotten too many games to be specific on all accounts but yeah. Civ mafia two scum slipped day 1 (you could argue all three did but the third was less definitive) and the only reason it didn't lead to only one scum left day 3 is that people figuredon't hotshot to be "too scummy to be scum". Firefly mafia, I had gathered enough of a feeling to be suspicious of Commander to investigate and found out he was SK. Ragian in Pokémon beach mafia was lynched day 2 pretty much entirely based on how he had acted day 1. There was another game, I forget which where analysis of day 1 voting patterns i made revealed a scum. Pokémon cult game, we lynched scum day 1 and killed a scum over night 1 based on what transpired during day 1.

[benga]

in short:
It's simple mafia with day 1 without lynch should not have day 1, but start with night and NK
and that's absurd
even with wrong lynch it still gives some info

[DirtyDishSoap]

in short:
It's simple mafia with day 1 without lynch should not have day 1, but start with night and NK
and that's absurd
even with wrong lynch it still gives some info

I've played games where it worked exactly like that.

Roles did their thing, outcome of the game was unaffected by Days 1 being entirely skipped and going into Days 2.
Sure, mislynches can provide some info, but at what cost are folks willing to pay for it? And again, this also benefits scum as much as it "benefits" us. I'm not sure if people are understanding this yet, but losing a major power role such as a cop or jail before they can do anything at all is more absurd to me than a no lynch.

[benga]

in short:
It's simple mafia with day 1 without lynch should not have day 1, but start with night and NK
and that's absurd
even with wrong lynch it still gives some info

I've played games where it worked exactly like that.

Roles did their thing, outcome of the game was unaffected by Days 1 being entirely skipped and going into Days 2.
Sure, mislynches can provide some info, but at what cost are folks willing to pay for it? And again, this also benefits scum as much as it "benefits" us. I'm not sure if people are understanding this yet, but losing a major power role such as a cop or jail before they can do anything at all is more absurd to me than a no lynch.

But this is also what you gain from no lynch, minus the no info part.
What is incentive for players to drop a single word then if we are waiting for the kill?

[DirtyDishSoap]

As I've said before, I've always viewed Days 1 as a meet and greet.

Let's say this community is much larger. Between 100-200 active members. Chances are, you're more than likely not going to be able to read them as scum or not because everyone has their own spiel. Poor example in this case since we have like...20 members roughly? Think I'm being generous with that number.

Another thing that I can't agree with SW on is that there isn't much information provided on Days 1 whereas on Days 2 we have roles that give us leads. These types of roles can help us draw up conclusions, set up plans and to determine who exactly is what. Now, in the case of Aliens where we aren't sure if we have a power role or an investigative role, then I'm likely going to change my stance on it, it's one of those cases where I do believe a no lynch does more harm than good.

TL:DR I can't see anything beneficial to Days 1 outside of it being a meet and greet unless it's a vanilla style mafia game where there are no roles to oust scum.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Days 1 Lynch.

1. Indigo - Day 1 Lynch Fircoal Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=220072&start=1050
Town Victory

2. Valkyria - Day 1 Lynch edocsil Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=198684&start=200
Town Victory

3. WoT - Day 1 Lynch Dakky Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=219612&start=250
Town Victory

4. PKMN Beach - Day 1 Lynch BuJaber Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=219243
Cult Win

5. Ult Werewolf R2 - Day 1 Lynch Ragian Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=218261&start=125
Town Win

6. Random Hist Mafia - Day 1 Lynch Ptlowe Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=218523&start=225
Town Win

7. Board Game - Day 1 Lynch TimWood Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=216821
Town Win

8. Suprise Mafia - Day 1 Lynch HotShot 3rd Party Survivor
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4769951#p4769951

Scum Win

9. Werewolf R1 - Day (1?) Lynch DoomYoshi Minion
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=217199&start=125

Cult/Werewolf Win

10. Intermediate - Day 1 LynchWhatSausage Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=215450&start=175

Scum Win

11. CYOC - Day 1 Lynch Benga Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=214776&start=375

Town Win

12. Adventure Time - Day 1 Lynch Dakky Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=215070

Mafia Win

13. Straight Mafia - Day 1 Lynch Soldier4Christ Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=215288&start=150

Town Win

14. Stacked Mafia - Day 1 Lynch White Rose Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=215356

Scum Win

15. Choose your Own Mafia - Day 1 Lynch Ptlowe Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=214119

Town win

16. Streaker Mafia - Day 1 Lynch Aage Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=214947

Scum Win

17. Foundation - Day 1 Lynch Wing Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=213671

Scum Win

18. Family Frenzy (Live Chat 18:28:17) - Day 1 Lynch CD Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=214417

Scum Win

19. Wheel of Time - Day 1 Lynch Streaker Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=212836&start=550

Town Win

20. Silver Bullet - Day 1 Lynch Dakky Scum
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=213610&start=100

Scum Win

21. Harry Potter - Day 1 Lynch Sectumsempra Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=212083&start=1000

Scum Win

22. Matrix 6 - Day 1 Lynch Dakky Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=213079&start=150

Scum Win

23. NoS Matrix 6 - Day 1 Lynch Endgame Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=212618

Scum Win

24. Double Fannuci - Day 1 Lynch HotShot Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=211535&start=625

Town Win

25. Meme Mafia - Day 1 Lynch ckyrias Town
https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=610&t=146976

Scum Win

In the first 25 games, there's been a total of 8 scum day 1 lynches, with 1 neut survivor. There's been 11 wins with Town and 14 for scum (including cult). This list ranges from now to 2015. It'll be more difficult to pull up a non day 1 lynch because every game I have pulled up, even the ones not completed, there has been a day 1 lynch. But at least this provides everyone here a rough draft on how Days 1 lynch has turned out, with a higher win rate for scum and a higher chance of lynching a town. A nearly 70% (68%) chance of town being lynched over the 32% of scum being lynched. There's a 56% win rate with scum, 44% win rate for town. Damn near 60% of the games being won by scum, that's rather high for a game like this if you think about it.

When I have time...I'll try and scour through every game (gross...) to see if there's been any games where there hasn't been a Day 1 lynch...Seeing as how the meta hasn't changed in 2 years, it'll be a bitch to find.

If this list is inconsistent with any wins or Day 1 Lynch alignment, please let me know and I'll update it.

[StorrZerg]

game balance is a bigger factor than day 1 lynches... (majority of games here are flavor based and unique on cc)


but.. people have to believe a lynch will happen. If the community agrees with a no lynch before discussion, how can there be any accountability. Believing in a lynch, and pushing for a lynch helps generate content for the game, helps town figure out who is town and who is pretending.

Push for a lynch, if a no lynch happens thats ok. Sometimes its the best call.

[DirtyDishSoap]

game balance is a bigger factor than day 1 lynches... (majority of games here are flavor based and unique on cc)

Agreed. Settings are dependent, I can adjust if need be.

but.. people have to believe a lynch will happen. If the community agrees with a no lynch before discussion, how can there be any accountability. Believing in a lynch, and pushing for a lynch helps generate content for the game, helps town figure out who is town and who is pretending.

Then what's the point of confirming?

Again, I fail to see the point of Day 1 being anything other than a meet and greet/joke phase. Is it too far fetched to believe that you can shorten Day 1 to roughly about a day or two and go into night actions? That's enough time, in my opinion, to get accountability assuming people log in at least once a day and check briefly. You're more likely to generate discussion about what had transpired over the night than wildly accusing others over typos/playstyles/lurking/submarining/breathing on Days 1.

Sure, but sometimes more harm comes from it. You're giving scum the ability to see who is who early on, either lynching them or just giving them (whoever happens to be the victim of circumstance), a death warrant straight into N1. Also, there is no factual way of checking who is bullshitting on Days 1 without counter claiming, given that mods apparently hand out fake claims instead of using your wits, I'm pushed further away of attempting to pressure people on Days 1. Scum tells would be another great argument, but given that there's a near 70% lynch rate of pro-town in the past 25 games, I'd find the scum tells on Days 1 dubious.

Anyways. I'm having a hard time finding any games with a no lynch on Days 1. I've made it almost to page 3 and that's 2012 territory. I could try from the last page and see if it's always been a common theme around here to lynch on Days 1 but apparently it's been meta for quite awhile. Just an update on my end.

[Fircoal]

show

Hold on, you're saying that on Day 1, the day with the least information that the rate of lynching scum is 8/25? If so that's actually pretty good.

Remember the chances of finding scum aren't 50%, it's the percentage of scum over the amount of players in the game. The most common of which is around 1:4. 8/25 is .32, while 1/4 is .25. That means the town is lynching a scumster .07 percent points more often than if they did it at random. That may not be much but for a day 1 lynch that seems pretty good to me. And considering the extra information, I think that's a good choice.

Also remember that lynching a scum does much more damage to the scum than lynching a town does to the town. The town can withhold some loses. GEtting early kills on scum, nerfs them hard. So having a rate higher than random means it's a net benefit to town.

[DirtyDishSoap]

So from this we can see:
64% of games are D1 lynch games
On a D1 Lynch, A town member is killed 69% of the time
On a D1 Lynch, Town wins the game 50% of the time
On a D1 No Lynch, Town wins 64% of the time

If only this site mimics the amount of a no lynch would I be able to get some actual statistical evidence.

I don't believe the 68% here vs the 69% there is merely a coincidence, I think there is a real pattern that is being followed across the board for everyone. The only difference is, at the time of making that list, the win rate for Town was a lot lower. Now I think it might have been raised by maybe 1 or 2%.

Yes, I get that scum have more to lose than town, but given how low it's been, the chances are unlikely. Further, you're pressuring other players into revealing roles, mapping it out for scum, and giving info freely. The town can withhold some losses, but lets say you pressure a cop into revealing and you lynch a vig out of the "Gotta lynch the scummiest looking guy here!" That's two really useful roles that town will likely lose out on, depending if scum can correctly guess a doc. There's a lot of variables but revealing can hurt significantly.

Point is, we can go back and forth with this all day, it's the same repeated argument over and over.

[lord voldemort]

you could look at epic mafia's stats to get a good idea of the no lynch. seeing as a vast majority of their games begin with night phase. might help

[HotShot53]

I know I have been part of games in the last few years where there have been no lynches day 1... but they have all been because of a deadline being reached, and in those games no majority at deadline = no lynch. Have you been looking for games like that? I don't think I've ever seen a day 1 no-lynch even close to being voted on, because as you've seen the majority of people on this site support a day 1 lynch and would never vote for a no-lynch.

Oh, and you should remove the two werewolf games from your list... they are one day games, must lynch day one and you win/lose based on that lynch, so not at all like the other mafia games.

[DirtyDishSoap]

If you can link them id appreciate it. It's harder to actually look up the games on my cell, hence why I'm taking forever.

Also, I'll edit the list out and fit two more generic games

[Sirius Kase]

This was an interesting discussion, even if inconclusive. It really depends on how much information you can get that first day.