jmyork82 wrote:I like escalating trench. It is definitely a different type of strategy but it can be won. You just cant be afraid to hit the attack button. Lots of players are afraid to hit the attack button.
It is not a matter of being afraid to attack. It is the matter of being afraid to advance a huge stack against your enemy’s huge stack.
And once one of these game moves to round 200 and each player has over 2 million troops. It becomes the issue that if player A starts attacking player B, player C will usually win the game. If player A starts attacking both B and C, he will definitely lose.
The other issue is the changing dice odds with huge stacks. Way back when, I created an Excel spreadsheet to define the odds for 3 vs 2 attacks, here are the results I got.
I used the Excel formula =INT(RAND()*6)+1 to create the random dice rolls, then sorted the rolls so I could compare largest vs largest and second vs second to see how much each player would win on each roll. I then ran the odds for 10, 100, and 1000 rolls of 3 vs 2 to create the total wins and losses and the percentages. I then ran each setting 50 times to get an average of the averages.
The bottom 3 lines of the table show how the odds for say 13 attacking 12 where there will be only 10 3 vs 2 rolls are all over the place. You might win 80% or you might only win 30%. The odds get more consistent at 100 rolls and even more consistent at 1000.
Bottom line here is what happens with HUGE stacks. The attacker will take 54 troops for every 46 they lose. If I advance 100,000 troops against my opponents 95,000 troop position, he then attacks me the next round, after about 92,600 auto 3 vs 2 attacks, my entire 100,000 troop stack will be gone and he will have about 9,800 remaining on his region after advancing 1 to mine. You lose a lot more troops as the aggressor than those lost by the defender.
Let me say that another way: 2 troops are lost every 3 vs 2 attack, 92,600 attacks results in 185,200 troops being lost, 54% of 185,200 troops is 100,008 which kills my 100,000 stack while 46% of 185,200 troops is 85,192 which does not kill his 95,000!