[CL7] Premier Division (1. LHDD - MVPs: Donche64, Samdemars)

[IcePack]

Thanks again for the update

[uckuki]

Open for signups:

[1v1]
viewtopic.php?f=438&t=217437#p4794645

[POLY]
viewtopic.php?f=438&t=217570#p4797755

[IcePack]

Mod Edit / Deleted.

Followed up with personal pm, appeal and situation under review.

IcePack

[IcePack]

Premier Division thread is being unlocked. PD related discussions may resume. Please refrain from non-PD topics, and enjoy the remainder of the event.
Thanks,
IcePack

Note: Second Division thread will be a bit longer while the situation gets worked out.

[rockfist]

I'll post something...

It looks to be Fallen 28-32 points headed into the last round.

TOFU 29-30 points.

LHDD 27-31 points.

Some of the LHDD home games have started with us but they are in the 12 hour time so no shots have been fired. I don't know about Fallen's last round games...and probably won't look for a while, as we need to perform well in our games or its a moot point.

Best case heading into the final round from our standpoint would be Ret beating LHDD in one match, RET & S&M tieing Fallen in their remaining match in doubt and LHDD beating Fallen 4-0 in their two matches, with us scoring 30...

of those events the most likely is us scoring 30 going into the finals...the away games against GoN are looking better than they were earlier. A RET tie with Fallen is probably not happening. RET beating LHDD looks to be 50-50. Fallen and LHDD will probably be 1-3. An S&M tie looks unlikely but not impossible.

I see Fallen having 31, us 30, and LHDD 29.5. I don't think its impossible for Fallen to lose points in the last matches so either LHDD or TOFU winning out has a decent shot...Fallen will not win a tiebreaker with LHDD or it would be unlikely to win a tiebreaker vs us (we'll have a lead of about 10 in GD going into the last round and for a tiebreaker to come up with us it would require us winning both against LHDD and a Fallen tie in one match so Fallen would net at most a gain of 4).

[IcePack]

Interesting. Looking into my crystal ball (accuracy questionable ) I see....

After 10 Rounds:
FALL 30 Game Diff (approx) +34
TOFU 30 Game Diff (approx) +28
LHDD 28-29 Game Diff (approx) +41 (28-29 depending on Third Crusade Result and getting zero or one point from RET away)

Round 11:
FALL vs OLE
LHDD vs TOFU

If FALL sweeps OLE, we would end up 34 pts
If LHDD sweeps TOFU, they would be 32-33 pts
If TOFU sweeps LHDD, they would be 34 pts

Clearly all 3 clans are still in it, if LHDD sweeps and FALL fails, they would still be able to get the crown.
With a TOFU/LHDD split, it would likely go to FALL.
If it goes 3-1 or 1-3, it could very possibly end up as a tie breaker.

Cheers
IcePack

[rockfist]

I briefly re looked at the GD headed into the last round since we differ a lot there. It's closer than I thought but I have it at 36-32 us ahead of Fallen, based on my best guess (a crap shoot at best) of games still in progress. The only way we'd beat LHDD in GD is by winning our match which we need to do anyway to win CL.

[Donelladan]

Interesting. Looking into my crystal ball (accuracy questionable ) I see....

After 10 Rounds:
FALL 30 Game Diff (approx) +34
TOFU 30 Game Diff (approx) +28
LHDD 28-29 Game Diff (approx) +41 (28-29 depending on Third Crusade Result and getting zero or one point from RET away)

Do you have information I don't have on the WWII Europe and the Eurasia games ?
As far as I know it could still be 2-0 for us, 1-1 or 0-2 for you on your away games round 9 against us.
Meaning we could start round 10 with 30 and you with 28.
Not likely but possible atm.

But my main concern is ofc our last set against TOFU, we know we need to make a 4-0 to keep serious chance, if we don't beat TOFU 4-0 our destiny will be in OLE hands, hoping they can make you lose some points.
And beating TOFU 4-0 isn't gonna be smthg easy...

[rockfist]

3-1 is the most likely outcome from LHDD-Fallen. That's what I put it at. Of course 4-0 or 2-2 is more likely to happen in that match than either us or LHDD winning 4-0 in the last round. But we'll see what happens.

[Momo33]

3-1 is the most likely outcome from LHDD-Fallen. That's what I put it at. Of course 4-0 or 2-2 is more likely to happen in that match than either us or LHDD winning 4-0 in the last round. But we'll see what happens.

Honestly, I really don't know how you (or anyone lol) can predict the outcome of our duel against FALL. WWII Europe and Eurasia are as even as it can be. Personally I am on the Eurasia game and every move seems to be a decisive one on both sides! And for WWII Europe, I am not part of it, but even if I consider this game pretty tied, if I had to put it on one side, I would put it on ours before than theirs (on the way it looks from the outside).

So I think it is pretty hard to make any prediction on the winner until these 2 games are decided. But obviously the TOFU/LHDD matchup is a big one and any of the two sweepng the matchup would have a great chance of winning it all!

[rockfist]

I put it at tied 4-4 for that match based on both of those games being even. If we assume a coin flip, it's 50% to be 1 each.

[IcePack]

I put it at tied 4-4 for that match based on both of those games being even. If we assume a coin flip, it's 50% to be 1 each.

Yeah, thats exactly what I did for my estimates. It was 3-3 and both the other 2 were even, so I "split" them and estimated a 1 point for each.

[betiko]

if we beat fall home & away we still have options.
If not, tofu needs to beat us home and away to stand a chance against fallen... seriously this is going to be an even tighter finish that last year's first division between fall tofu and ace.
All 3 clans still with very reasonable chances to win.

OSA will probably finish 4th in front of foed and S&M.

ACE re doing surprisingly bad this season with very inconsistent results.

OLE, you guys must give all you have against Fallen to avoid relegation!!

[rockfist]

Betiko, either you or us winning both Home and Away seems doubtful as it did before the games started.

Its really tough if we could have some of those early matches back where we screwed up it wouldn't be. Our goal each season of CC or CL is to compete for the championship. We want to win, but if we aren't part of the conversation we are doing it wrong. Fallen is starting to find out what that is all about and if LHDD wins this league they will also.

[betiko]

Betiko, either you or us winning both Home and Away seems doubtful as it did before the games started.

Its really tough if we could have some of those early matches back where we screwed up it wouldn't be. Our goal each season of CC or CL is to compete for the championship. We want to win, but if we aren't part of the conversation we are doing it wrong. Fallen is starting to find out what that is all about and if LHDD wins this league they will also.

well last season we were in second division and won the title; we played the random cup and won the title (too bad it isn't played anymore... like the CC cup but only random map) and we lost in semi-finals against the team that won the CC5; passing various rounds being the clear underdog... going from 24th place up to 2nd (then back to third...).
I'm pretty happy to see that we're playing for the title against both FALL and TOFU again... which just confirms that we are top 3 with you two, and that it's always diceroll cllose between the three of us.
Too bad that ACE isn't what it used to be anymore. FOED and OSA are back on a roll though; not all old clans are going down.

[rockfist]

I've personally never quite understood why Random Cup and Random League are considered less than CC and CL, but I just accept that they are.

[betiko]

I've personally never quite understood why Random Cup and Random League are considered less than CC and CL, but I just accept that they are.

I don't think it's a question of format... being good at random is better than being good at some map/settings i guess... but to win you also need to win aways in a team's best map/settings in none random...
I think the biggest difference is that the best CC clans only play CC or/and CL. It's already a lot to focus on. So winning the random league or random cup is winning a great format, but not with all the best competition possible.
In last year's random cup we got to beat teams like GON, TNC, RET and FOED in 61 games, and all 4 are in first division (I think FOED beat OSA in the other semi final). So it's a very good level, but clans like tofu, fallen, tsm, ace, kort were not in it.

for example... this year we are in the random league but no one is really following our own results, even less what other clans are doing, and we are mostly putting new guys. Too bad it costs us rank in the F400 though, otherwise it's a great way to integrate new people.

[IcePack]

I'm pretty sure we participated in RL since RL3? Though it's not something we push / focus on, more for fun. It's usually run by volunteers bcuz I don't have the time to focus on CC, CL & RL

[rockfist]

Both helpful answers.

[benga]

foed won over low

but this years RL is stronger then CL and it lasts longer, it's just under the radar and that's fine

[betiko]

foed won over low

but this years RL is stronger then CL and it lasts longer, it's just under the radar and that's fine

huh... I was going to refute but... you're actually right. There are 12 clans in the CL premier division and 17 in the random league, and the only clans from premier league missing there are TOFU, MMM and OLE.
the clans added are FISO, MD, HH, ATL, LOW, PHO, AFOS, FAD.

Ice seems to be on the same page as us though... we're not playing the RL too seriously, tofu not playing it at all... but I guess that's our problem, we don't have enough structure to play all 3 competitions seriously and have a chance to win in all of them. Probably better results in the CL made us lose interest to be perfectly honnest.

[benga]

even worse (or better) RL has better scoring taking home and away as one

CL has to step up

and go back to roots, where every win was a point, that makes perfect sense
in RL you can't control maps, here it's base for planning

[betiko]

even worse (or better) RL has better scoring taking home and away as one

CL has to step up

and go back to roots, where every win was a point, that makes perfect sense
in RL you can't control maps, here it's base for planning

if it was counted as home+away we'd have only 1 defeat 9-7 against foed, the rest would be all victories.
tofu would have defeats against fallen, foed, possibly OSA
fallen would actually have no loss... just possibly against us and s&m