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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby degaston on Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:17 am

MudPuppy wrote:
degaston wrote:I looked at the messages during the downtime, and find pretty good reasons to ID everyone except Mookie as town.
Vote mookiemcgee

Well, those off the Zivel vote (mookie, legionnare, & H8) are the top suspects. What is it about mookie that put him as the front-runner for you?

IB, as the veteran, can you confirm the possible reasons for a no kill last night? My guess is it was either a roleblock or a choice by scum not to shoot... which makes little sense at this point, I would think. Am I missing another option? If there is a roleblocker in this game, should they announce their N1 action at this point???

I won't discount the possibility that the remaining scum could have voted for Zivel to draw attention away from himself, but with IB as a reasonable alternative, and no one knowing which way I was going to vote, It doesn't seem like the likely thing to do, so yes, H8, mookie and legionnare are at the top of my list to start.

Mudpuppy gathered the suspicious zivel quotes that showed him trying too hard to look town, and then Legionnare, charm, and I voted for zivel, which caused him to claim, so I have the four of us as town. Joak was part of the final lynch team, so I'll include him as town, and IB probably wouldn't have discouraged another claim if both he and zivel were mafia, so I have him as town, too.

That leaves H8 and mookie. Zivel tried to turn the focus on H8 twice, he and mookie never targeted each other, and twice they made consecutive votes for IB. Unless someone was very clever with their votes, then mookie seems like the obvious choice to me.

Iron Butterfly wrote:
MudPuppy wrote:If there is a roleblocker in this game, should they announce their N1 action at this point???

It could be several scenarios. The only game scenario we can eliminate is number two. The only people who would have a better understanding of our set-up are those with a PR.

A doc could have prevented the kill.
Mafia could have targeted one shot bullet proof.
Jail Keeper blocked/jailed mafia target
Jail Keeper jailed/blocked mafia.

That's nice to know, but do you have an answer to his question?
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby Iron Butterfly on Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:33 am

1#Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Jailkeeper
2#Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town Cop. We can eleiminate this scenario.
3#Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town Tracker, Town Doctor

4#Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town Jailkeeper
5#Mafia Goon, Mafia Roleblocker, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town Doctor, Town Cop
6#Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Vanilla Townie, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Tracker

If we are in Scenario 1 we wont know unless someone comes forward. Do not come forward unless forced to claim.
If we are in scenario 3 or 6 the tracker is more or less a cop. All they need to do is track someone each night and if they move they are definitely mafia in scenario 6 and would either be the doc or mafia in 3.

If we are in scenario 4 jail keeper SHOULD NOT come forward.

You guys can figure out what I missed in so far as playing smart and logically.

Two thoughts. This is why lynching day 1 is better then no lynch. By lynching mafia, mafia can not even false claim as a strategy if they get boxed in and are forced to claim.

I am fairly certain Mud Puppy is Town as he got a good read on Zivel and presented it. Its what swayed me.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby charm on Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:17 am

Excellent analysis. My two top suspects I'm watching are Mookie and Legion.
I also believe that there is always information to gain from a lynch - so I'm very happy we went this route.
This game is supposedly basic, so I would guess we have the Doc scenario in play - it would be really stupid for the mafia not to send out a kill order and I would guess the mafia boys are not a bunch of idiots.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby degaston on Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:45 am

charm wrote:Excellent analysis. My two top suspects I'm watching are Mookie and Legion.
I also believe that there is always information to gain from a lynch - so I'm very happy we went this route.
This game is supposedly basic, so I would guess we have the Doc scenario in play - it would be really stupid for the mafia not to send out a kill order and I would guess the mafia boys are not a bunch of idiots.

I thought that the setup was selected randomly from a few possible choices?

Legionnare voted for zivel on three separate occasions before changing to IB at the end, and zivel voted for him once. That might be a good strategy to expect from experienced players, but is it less likely from noobs? I guess it's mostly gut feeling, but I get a scummier vibe from mookie's voting and posts than from legion's.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:53 pm

I don't have much to add. I honestly didn't think either IB or Zivel were Mafia, which is why i was leaning toward a no lynch. Clearly I was wrong, both about no lynch and about Z... I cant really explain away the accusation from Dega that Zivel and I didnt finger each other (eww gross) at any point yesterday, except to say that if I was Mafia I almost certainly would have voted for the other mafia member day one then unvoted so we wouldnt at least appear not to be associated with each other so easily.

Looking at the situation it does seem like I should be the top suspect, and Dega makes some good points. I'd probably vote for me if I was you guys, for what its worth I'm just a regular townie.

is there any chance that the hammer vote was from the other mafia? Is that too far fetched? No one is gonna expect it....
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby degaston on Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:53 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:I don't have much to add. I honestly didn't think either IB or Zivel were Mafia, which is why i was leaning toward a no lynch. Clearly I was wrong, both about no lynch and about Z... I cant really explain away the accusation from Dega that Zivel and I didnt finger each other (eww gross)...

I just said that you hadn't voted for each other - whatever you did on the first night is between you two, but if the finger fits... \:D/

mookiemcgee wrote:... at any point yesterday, except to say that if I was Mafia I almost certainly would have voted for the other mafia member day one then unvoted so we wouldnt at least appear not to be associated with each other so easily.
You'd like to think that, wouldn't you?
Image

mookiemcgee wrote:Looking at the situation it does seem like I should be the top suspect, and Dega makes some good points. I'd probably vote for me if I was you guys, for what its worth I'm just a regular townie.

is there any chance that the hammer vote was from the other mafia? Is that too far fetched? No one is gonna expect it....

A little reverse psychology, an unnecessary (at this point) claim, then an attempt to redirect towards me? Not bad, but I think it would have been pretty easy for me to hammer IB without much suspicion.

In any case, I'm not saying that I have any proof against you, so I'd like to see what some others have to say.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:13 pm

degaston wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:I don't have much to add. I honestly didn't think either IB or Zivel were Mafia, which is why i was leaning toward a no lynch. Clearly I was wrong, both about no lynch and about Z... I cant really explain away the accusation from Dega that Zivel and I didnt finger each other (eww gross)...

I just said that you hadn't voted for each other - whatever you did on the first night is between you two, but if the finger fits... \:D/

mookiemcgee wrote:... at any point yesterday, except to say that if I was Mafia I almost certainly would have voted for the other mafia member day one then unvoted so we wouldnt at least appear not to be associated with each other so easily.
You'd like to think that, wouldn't you?
Image

mookiemcgee wrote:Looking at the situation it does seem like I should be the top suspect, and Dega makes some good points. I'd probably vote for me if I was you guys, for what its worth I'm just a regular townie.

is there any chance that the hammer vote was from the other mafia? Is that too far fetched? No one is gonna expect it....

A little reverse psychology, an unnecessary (at this point) claim, then an attempt to redirect towards me? Not bad, but I think it would have been pretty easy for me to hammer IB without much suspicion.

In any case, I'm not saying that I have any proof against you, so I'd like to see what some others have to say.


Was my claim unnecessary? It seems like I am at the top of the suspect lists, my understanding was this is when a person is meant to claim?!? Should I have waited until I was almost lynched?(this is a serious question) I don't blame you for fingering me, I'm just trying to tell you all that I'm not the remaining mafia and that I have no evidence of who is... All i can do is try to profile who really is mafia, and Legion and (although far fetched perhaps) Dega are the only other two that fit. If I was Mafia I would have at least considered dropping the hammer on Zivel to give myself some cover going forward, wouldn't you?
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby MudPuppy on Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:17 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:I don't blame you for fingering me

Stefon... please behave.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:30 pm

MudPuppy wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:I don't blame you for fingering me

Stefon... please behave.


Lol
ConfederateSS wrote: Vote for Kamala
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby H8 AFK on Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:37 pm

I made a quick quess on the first day when I voted for IB, for no other reason than he was too forthcoming with his views and his experience. Never sussed zivel as scum so my sussing clearly can't be trusted.

I'm still not sure why some think of me as scum but I can assure you all that I'm not.

No vote from me just now.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby legionnare on Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:46 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:I don't blame you for fingering me


What's with all the fingering? I thought this was a game of murder and mystery that all the family could enjoy?! :lol:
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby legionnare on Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:48 pm

charm wrote:Excellent analysis. My two top suspects I'm watching are Mookie and Legion.
I also believe that there is always information to gain from a lynch - so I'm very happy we went this route.
This game is supposedly basic, so I would guess we have the Doc scenario in play - it would be really stupid for the mafia not to send out a kill order and I would guess the mafia boys are not a bunch of idiots.


Awwww.. charm, you so mean, what'd I do? :P
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby legionnare on Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:50 pm

On a serious note, so far the analysis is good and makes sense, other than that, Mookie's post is the most interesting, where'd you think of the reverse psychology play Mookie....? IGMEOY
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:12 pm

legionnare wrote:On a serious note, so far the analysis is good and makes sense, other than that, Mookie's post is the most interesting, where'd you think of the reverse psychology play Mookie....? IGMEOY


Hmm let me think, where did I get that play from.

disclaimer this quote is from a different mafia game:
legionnare wrote:As for me? Well let's look at the evidence = Claimed early without pressure, hunted Bantam, hunted Kill, defended H8, defended Sirius. If it was me looking at another player I would scream MAFIA SCUM and string 'em, I understand that.


And you also turned out to be town Legion!

-

I'm changed my mind on my earlier post about Dega being suspicious. At first my thinking was that he would vote to eliminate Zivel to keep his cover, but if IB was lynched instead, we wouldn't have known that Z was mafia and so there would have been no need for cover. Hadn't quite thought it threw when i first posted the idea. The post below is what started me down that path of thinking though...

degaston wrote:Right now, I would think that anyone who cast the 5th vote for someone on the first day would be highly suspicious.


Overall Degas posts are very well reasoned and I can't blame him for voting for me, but I really think you should all take a closer look at H8 and Legion. I'm claiming Town now because I've got no special role to hide and I want to find the last mafia and end this game, if that was bad form I apologize.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby charm on Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:50 pm

legionnare wrote:
charm wrote:Excellent analysis. My two top suspects I'm watching are Mookie and Legion.
I also believe that there is always information to gain from a lynch - so I'm very happy we went this route.
This game is supposedly basic, so I would guess we have the Doc scenario in play - it would be really stupid for the mafia not to send out a kill order and I would guess the mafia boys are not a bunch of idiots.


Awwww.. charm, you so mean, what'd I do? :P


On Day 1 you voted Zivel and then unvoted him like 3 times. You were making posts that we would all see so we wouldn't think you were being quiet. Then your last post was to Deg stating IB or Zivel. I don't think you had any intention of voting and said IB first hoping he would choose IB. I would think this is awfully suspicious and a good reason to "finger you!"

VOTE LEGION!!

P.S. sure glad I'm not being fingered! :lol: :lol:
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:59 pm

charm wrote:
P.S. sure glad I'm not being fingered! :lol: :lol:



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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:01 am

charm wrote:
legionnare wrote:
charm wrote:Excellent analysis. My two top suspects I'm watching are Mookie and Legion.
I also believe that there is always information to gain from a lynch - so I'm very happy we went this route.
This game is supposedly basic, so I would guess we have the Doc scenario in play - it would be really stupid for the mafia not to send out a kill order and I would guess the mafia boys are not a bunch of idiots.


Awwww.. charm, you so mean, what'd I do? :P


On Day 1 you voted Zivel and then unvoted him like 3 times. You were making posts that we would all see so we wouldn't think you were being quiet. Then your last post was to Deg stating IB or Zivel. I don't think you had any intention of voting and said IB first hoping he would choose IB. I would think this is awfully suspicious and a good reason to "finger you!"

VOTE LEGION!!

P.S. sure glad I'm not being fingered! :lol: :lol:


Good observation.

I am fairly certain Degas is Town as well, so in "my opinion" the mafia pool has shrunk by two in my book. Initially H8 was at the top of my list but in seeing how zivel kept trying to get a bandwagon on him several times I will step back from that for now.

Mookie and legionare are top of my list also.

vote legionare
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby MudPuppy on Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:33 am

I actually had a town read on legionnare for most of the day. I didn't mind so much his vote/unvotes against Zivel. However, since Zivel flipped scum, I'm having a hard time seeing how he went from:
legionnare wrote:IB is giving out a lot of good advice, for the moment I can't see anything particularly scummy being said, I'll post more when I've had some time to look at the voting trends to see if that reveals anything.

and
legionnare wrote:I vote Zivel purely because he seems to not care who is voted on. Say's he his happy to lynch H8, Joak, charm and IB
leaving Zivel, Mudpuppy and myself out.
So I know I am Townie which leaves Zivel and Mudpuppy?

and
legionnare wrote:No one has really posted anything that suspicious but Zivel still tops my list. vote Zivel

to
legionnare wrote:Well since it's a coin toss between IB and Zivel and I don't think Zivel is mafia, I vote IB

...without any explanation for the rationale behind the change. Given the closeness of the vote... and, of course, the result of the vote... his unexplained flip-flop looks quite suspicious:

Vote legionnare
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 1: Have at it! [9/9]

Postby degaston on Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:26 am

The most suspicious thing I think I see about Legion is that it looks like the votes that he and Zivel made for each other right at the start could have been pre-planned. But after that, I think it's unlikely that he would continue to go back to zivel several times if they were both scum. With only two of you, it seems too risky to try to build credibility by voting for your teammate. If he gets lynched, then doesn't it become pretty easy for a power role to expose you?

Mookie, on the other hand, seemed to be trying to protect zivel:
mookiemcgee (after zivel got to L-2) wrote:In light of the above lets not get too crazy early here... If we all vote blindly there is a very high likelyhood we vote one of our own townies out.
(notice the similarity to zivel's "off-hand" claims to be town?)

mookiemcgee wrote:It still seems like this train is moving on a fast path to nowhere. I dont want to bandwagon on Zivel even though he is the only other one with a group of votes on him...

Unvote , vote "no Lynch" unless someone has something more compelling than Zivel referring to himself as town....

And twice, he and zivel put in the 3rd and 4th votes to bring IB to L-1.

But since there seems to be a strong suspicion of him, I'll Vote Legionnare just to have him claim.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby legionnare on Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:10 am

mookiemcgee wrote:
charm wrote:
P.S. sure glad I'm not being fingered! :lol: :lol:



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Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 1: Have at it! [9/9]

Postby legionnare on Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:22 am

degaston wrote:
show

But since there seems to be a strong suspicion of him, I'll Vote Legionnare just to have him claim.


Image
With that I'm at L-1, I am Vanilla Townie, not much you can do with that I know.
As for flip-flopping my vote on Z, I was getting bored of constantly voting him with no-one piling on so changed to IB who was next on my list.
If you feel you want to lynch me, on you go. You won't be taking out a power role, just a townie, which can only help narrow the field.
I would pay very close attention to Mookie, he admits he is using a play I used in my only other game to escape a lynch. I don't know whether to be suspicious or honoured. So for now vote Mookie
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:26 am

MudPuppy wrote:I actually had a town read on legionnare for most of the day. I didn't mind so much his vote/unvotes against Zivel. However, since Zivel flipped scum, I'm having a hard time seeing how he went from:
legionnare wrote:IB is giving out a lot of good advice, for the moment I can't see anything particularly scummy being said, I'll post more when I've had some time to look at the voting trends to see if that reveals anything.

and
legionnare wrote:I vote Zivel purely because he seems to not care who is voted on. Say's he his happy to lynch H8, Joak, charm and IB
leaving Zivel, Mudpuppy and myself out.
So I know I am Townie which leaves Zivel and Mudpuppy?

and
legionnare wrote:No one has really posted anything that suspicious but Zivel still tops my list. vote Zivel

to
legionnare wrote:Well since it's a coin toss between IB and Zivel and I don't think Zivel is mafia, I vote IB

...without any explanation for the rationale behind the change. Given the closeness of the vote... and, of course, the result of the vote... his unexplained flip-flop looks quite suspicious:

Vote legionnare



Mudpuppy and Dega, your both very coherent in your posts, I have a hard time believing your both newbs to Mafia. Especially you Dega as I believe you said this is your first ever game???

This back and forth from legionaire is exactly what I was referring to in my earlier posts. I still think it could be H8, and like a 10% chance someone who is mafia actually voted out Zivel. For now I vote Legion
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby legionnare on Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:35 am

Well shucks, Charm-Iron Butterfly-Mudpuppy-Degaston-Mookie = 5 votes. Which means it's:
Image

It's been a fun game guys, remember look closely at Mookie and what i said in previous post.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Day 2! [8/9]

Postby Lootifer on Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:24 pm

Wow, and that's a lock.

Night scene incoming.
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Re: Welcome to Noobsville! Night 2 [7/9]

Postby Lootifer on Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:30 pm

Well after much random walking and scratching of heads the residents of Noobsville finally decided they wanted someone dead no time at all the residents decided they like this killin' business!

LEGIONNARE the Vanilla Townie has been lynched!

Night phase begins now. Please send me your night actions within 48 hours. If I have not received actions within 48 hours I will send out prods and if that does not work then you run the risk of losing your night ability.
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