ASoIaF Mafia Prologue (10/13) - D3: The Bloody Winter Rose

[Foxglove]

Maybe you should spend less time complaining about "The Three Amigos" and more time trying to get us on side. Because then it doesn't matter which side you claim for, as you'll have us backing you up, and removing the so-called "bullseye".

My problem is that you all want to prance around like "these guys are obvs evil and let's lynch the third parties we don't care about killing off the opposite faction to us anyways"

The trouble though, is that there seems to be no obvious leverage or inducements that either the Loyalists or the Rebels can use to get The Three Amigos on their side. So right now you guys just seem dangerous. You are the "outed" faction - with seemingly no motivation to see either side win. It makes me very curious about what your victory conditions are (though I know you can reveal them). Maybe just staying alive, somehow.

[kgb007]

Maybe you should spend less time complaining about "The Three Amigos" and more time trying to get us on side. Because then it doesn't matter which side you claim for, as you'll have us backing you up, and removing the so-called "bullseye".

Fircoal seems to believe we have killing powers, in reality my night actions are far more defensive in nature.

Iron Butterfly, Fircoal and nagerous have been very supportive of each other's posts. That's a strong alliance right there.

from everything i've read here and know about from the TV series, you basically choose the loyalists (it's loyalists they actually choose in the books right?) once it's clear they have upper hand and completely tilt the scales in their favor

how does one go about getting you and SW on their side?

if you're waiting for a numbers advantage, it could be awhile...vote count anyone??

[strike wolf]

Maybe you should spend less time complaining about "The Three Amigos" and more time trying to get us on side. Because then it doesn't matter which side you claim for, as you'll have us backing you up, and removing the so-called "bullseye".

Fircoal seems to believe we have killing powers, in reality my night actions are far more defensive in nature.

Iron Butterfly, Fircoal and nagerous have been very supportive of each other's posts. That's a strong alliance right there.

from everything i've read here and know about from the TV series, you basically choose the loyalists (it's loyalists they actually choose in the books right?) once it's clear they have upper hand and completely tilt the scales in their favor

Actually we end up joining the rebels after it's clear they would defeat the loyalists.

how does one go about getting you and SW on their side?

You start beating up on your opponents faction, which doesn't happen by voting third parties.

if you're waiting for a numbers advantage, it could be awhile...vote count anyone??

[Fircoal]

the question I have is about Safari and jonty. Safari has been all but invisible by posting just enough to appear he is participating. Understandably he is standing back watching to see how things fall.

Why would anyone jump on a band wagon, one created out of spite more then anything, knowing that their faction may be exposed?? We know Stanis will perhaps die. Why would a person vote to reveal someones faction not knowing what they flip? If a player flips loyalist that puts a bullseye on the player to perhaps even the score. If the player flips rebel that is perhaps another nail in the coffin for the rebels.

What info would you want Safari? If you are rebel faction and I claim rebel that would put the rebel faction in a hard spot.
If I flip loyalist the rebels could perhaps tie the score up....and you would do that why??

Because getting claims and deciding if we should vote people is the way that mafia works and if we go no lynch & no claim every day it will be a very boring game. By the logic of Worrying that our faction may be exposed than we should never form a case ever in any game because that player might be town and therefore only mafia would want claims. Vote everyone who has ever made a case in any game ever

To make matters worse I have the "The Three Amigos" gunning for me.

Boo fucking hoo. If you haven't noticed us "three amigos" aren't sitting all that pretty with you, nag and Fircoal all seeming to want us dead for issues that don't even necessarily concern this game while most stay silent. So maybe you three musketeers should stop complaining about us three amigos. Unvote revote IB

Let's face it. The case on IB is a kin to. "He missed a couple of things stated in the thread." IS that bad? Yes. But it is not AS bad as say Neb or Masket who prance around in their 3rd partiness. I honestly think IB is just trying to get to the bottom of this. There are much bigger fish to fry than IB here.

It's one thing when you miss a few details. It's another thing when players like IB and Nag continually act ignorant to the basic set up to the game. So for the last time. This game is not based on the events of Game Of Thrones or The War of Five Kings. It's based on ROBERT'S REBELLION. Some facts about Robert's Rebellion:

1. The basic factions were the Rebels (Stark, Baratheon, Arryn and Tully) vs the Loyalists (Targaryens, Martell and Tyrell). The Lannisters and the Freys both stayed neutral until after the Battle of the Trident.

2. Neither Tywin Lannister nor Jaime Lannister ever tried to claim the Iron Throne.

3. Walder Frey never tried to either.

My problem is that you all want to prance around like "these guys are obvs evil and let's lynch the third parties we don't care about killing off the opposite faction to us anyways"

Nag. Well I have an idea who Nag might be and, if I am right, I understand why he would be hesitant to trust me. This is me saying, I don't care. I'm not after anybody. You and IB don't have that excuse, as the only justification I can see to your behavior would be if IB is Hoster Tully and has a win condition involving killing Frey (A stretch) or you're Doran Martell and want Tywin Lannister dead (again a stretch, Doran wouldn't have any problem with the Lannisters until after the war).

I can understand why you would be hesitant to believe that there would be 3 faction choosers but fact of the matter is that multiple third parties isn't new to commander.

I care about killing off people on the opposite faction I just think at this time of the game were we already know at least 3 claimed 3rd-partiers who all claim they can join with another side it's more worth it to make sure that they don't have the chance to screw over my side in any way. The thing is because of your claims I see no risk to having you lynched. Once one of you dies and the power of the 3rd parties is lessor, the roles of you 3 becomes much less of a risk.

[strike wolf]

And you'll go into tomorrow knowing no more about who might actually be against you than you do today. You've already wasted one day. How many do you want to waste?

[Nebuchadnezer]

the question I have is about Safari and jonty. Safari has been all but invisible by posting just enough to appear he is participating. Understandably he is standing back watching to see how things fall.

Why would anyone jump on a band wagon, one created out of spite more then anything, knowing that their faction may be exposed?? We know Stanis will perhaps die. Why would a person vote to reveal someones faction not knowing what they flip? If a player flips loyalist that puts a bullseye on the player to perhaps even the score. If the player flips rebel that is perhaps another nail in the coffin for the rebels.

What info would you want Safari? If you are rebel faction and I claim rebel that would put the rebel faction in a hard spot.
If I flip loyalist the rebels could perhaps tie the score up....and you would do that why??

To make matters worse I have the "The Three Amigos" gunning for me.

Okay, Iron. I'm willing to take a different approach. However, I will NOT take an approach of, "we can't vote anyone, because we might expose our own team." I also refuse to vote for the Lannisters. Since they are the only information we have, I can't vote to lynch them. Other than that, please let us know what you would wish to do. Until you come up with a better plan, my vote has to stay.

It's nice to finally see some more players in here posting...

[Fircoal]

And you'll go into tomorrow knowing no more about who might actually be against you than you do today. You've already wasted one day. How many do you want to waste?

I didn't want to waste yesterday and I most certainly don't think this is a waste.

[Minister Masket]

how does one go about getting you and SW on their side?

You start beating up on your opponents faction, which doesn't happen by voting third parties.

This. Or y'know....simply asking. It's hardly as if I'm going to be choosing the nag-Fir-IB faction at this point.

neb - I think yer pretty much safe at this point.

I care about killing off people on the opposite faction I just think at this time of the game were we already know at least 3 claimed 3rd-partiers who all claim they can join with another side it's more worth it to make sure that they don't have the chance to screw over my side in any way. The thing is because of your claims I see no risk to having you lynched. Once one of you dies and the power of the 3rd parties is lessor, the roles of you 3 becomes much less of a risk.

For the last time, we'd have no reason to do this. None. We choose a side to support. It does us no good to weaken whoever we join.

[Iron Butterfly]

I am curious why no one has addressed the question I ask of jonty and Safari. I most assuredly understand what motivates the third parties.

I again ask why someone would would push for the possibility of their faction being reveled, which would make them vulnerable to their enemies?

[Nebuchadnezer]

I am curious why no one has addressed the question I ask of jonty and Safari. I most assuredly understand what motivates the third parties.

I again ask why someone would would push for the possibility of their faction being reveled, which would make them vulnerable to their enemies?

Without information, nobody knows who anyone is. If you don't know who anyone is, you don't know how to use your night actions. If you can't use your night actions, you can't gain any information. If you can't gain information at night, and you can't gain information during the day...the game sucks. I don't see how you think it's okay to play this game without knowing sides. We can guess that you, Fir and Nag are on the same team, but I can't determine anything for sure.

A question back to you, Iron...what will you do tomorrow? You won't risk exposing your side, so you can't vote anyone. How will you proceed?

[spiesr]

I care about killing off people on the opposite faction I just think at this time of the game were we already know at least 3 claimed 3rd-partiers who all claim they can join with another side it's more worth it to make sure that they don't have the chance to screw over my side in any way. The thing is because of your claims I see no risk to having you lynched. Once one of you dies and the power of the 3rd parties is lessor, the roles of you 3 becomes much less of a risk.

For the last time, we'd have no reason to do this. None. We choose a side to support. It does us no good to weaken whoever we join.

The faction that you don't support will likely be in a very bad place if all the claims are true and 3 players join the other side. Whichever side you don't support will likely be screwed over. As such if one believes that you are going to join the opposing side attempting to eliminate you before you can would be a valid, although not necessarily efficient, response.

[Fircoal]

how does one go about getting you and SW on their side?

You start beating up on your opponents faction, which doesn't happen by voting third parties.

This. Or y'know....simply asking. It's hardly as if I'm going to be choosing the nag-Fir-IB faction at this point.

neb - I think yer pretty much safe at this point.

I care about killing off people on the opposite faction I just think at this time of the game were we already know at least 3 claimed 3rd-partiers who all claim they can join with another side it's more worth it to make sure that they don't have the chance to screw over my side in any way. The thing is because of your claims I see no risk to having you lynched. Once one of you dies and the power of the 3rd parties is lessor, the roles of you 3 becomes much less of a risk.

For the last time, we'd have no reason to do this. None. We choose a side to support. It does us no good to weaken whoever we join.

Quite the opposite. By supporting a faction you weaken the other faction. Make sense?

[Minister Masket]

Well then as I said to IB, perhaps your time would've been better spent on working out who the other faction consists of, rather than complaining about us 3rd parties. As it stands you're going to have to be very persuasive to lure the Lannisters over to you, so you've kinda screwed yourself over really.

[Fircoal]

Well then as I said to IB, perhaps your time would've been better spent on working out who the other faction consists of, rather than complaining about us 3rd parties. As it stands you're going to have to be very persuasive to lure the Lannisters over to you, so you've kinda screwed yourself over really.

First of all you don't even know what faction I belong to.

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

[nagerous]

I am curious why no one has addressed the question I ask of jonty and Safari. I most assuredly understand what motivates the third parties.

I again ask why someone would would push for the possibility of their faction being reveled, which would make them vulnerable to their enemies?

Without information, nobody knows who anyone is. If you don't know who anyone is, you don't know how to use your night actions. If you can't use your night actions, you can't gain any information. If you can't gain information at night, and you can't gain information during the day...the game sucks. I don't see how you think it's okay to play this game without knowing sides. We can guess that you, Fir and Nag are on the same team, but I can't determine anything for sure.

A question back to you, Iron...what will you do tomorrow? You won't risk exposing your side, so you can't vote anyone. How will you proceed?

I have no idea if IB and Fircoal are the same faction as me, we just are on a similar wavelength as how we are viewing this game. Their posts in my eyes make some logical sense.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Well, my frustration has peaked...Good luck to everyone tonight!

[Iron Butterfly]

we need to hear from Flo and Illiad.

[strike wolf]

And you'll go into tomorrow knowing no more about who might actually be against you than you do today. You've already wasted one day. How many do you want to waste?

I didn't want to waste yesterday and I most certainly don't think this is a waste.

If you can show me a legitimate argument that lynching a third party (an easy target for any faction) helps builds cases for who might be on the opposite faction, I'll consider voting for Neb.

[jonty125]

Why would a person vote to reveal someones faction not knowing what they flip?

That's true of all lynches, for at least one member of the wagon. Sometimes they can be 99% sure from a cop investigation, others times less sure. Sometimes they have to take a risk, sometimes they have to play politics. Note how this is all third person. There are plethora of reasons, why I could want to lynch you.

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

[Foxglove]

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

Yeah - but the Lannisters seem to have made it pretty clear that they're waiting to be wooed, and that they have the power to swing the balance to either side. That doesn't seem like any crushing victories are imminent.

[strike wolf]

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

Yeah - but the Lannisters seem to have made it pretty clear that they're waiting to be wooed, and that they have the power to swing the balance to either side. That doesn't seem like any crushing victories are imminent.

Victories certainly won't become more imminent if the few non-third parties who are active keep suggesting to lynch third parties who have nothing to do with their opposing faction.

[Foxglove]

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

Yeah - but the Lannisters seem to have made it pretty clear that they're waiting to be wooed, and that they have the power to swing the balance to either side. That doesn't seem like any crushing victories are imminent.

Victories certainly won't become more imminent if the few non-third parties who are active keep suggesting to lynch third parties who have nothing to do with their opposing faction.

Well it's quite a conundrum, isn't it.

[safariguy5]

I am curious why no one has addressed the question I ask of jonty and Safari. I most assuredly understand what motivates the third parties.

I again ask why someone would would push for the possibility of their faction being reveled, which would make them vulnerable to their enemies?

Without information, nobody knows who anyone is. If you don't know who anyone is, you don't know how to use your night actions. If you can't use your night actions, you can't gain any information. If you can't gain information at night, and you can't gain information during the day...the game sucks. I don't see how you think it's okay to play this game without knowing sides. We can guess that you, Fir and Nag are on the same team, but I can't determine anything for sure.

A question back to you, Iron...what will you do tomorrow? You won't risk exposing your side, so you can't vote anyone. How will you proceed?

Well scene flavor implies that the rebels may or may not lose a member. From a third party perspective, that would seem to put the rebels at a disadvantage. But let's say for the sake of this argument that rebels and loyalists are at equal strength.

If we assume 3 people are all third parties, then that represents a pretty significant voting block if all of them side with the same faction. So whichever side that doesn't get chosen will have a difficult time pushing through lynches without third party support. That means that the side with fewer numbers will have to rely on night kills and whatnot to eliminate the other faction. However, I assume each faction will have a finite number of NK's while you can push a lynch every day with third party support. Therefore, if it ends up as a race between two factions, I'd side with the one with the day presence to have lynches over the one that has to rely on night kills that have a higher probability of not hitting the intended target. By that I mean roleblocks, doc saves, bus drives, etc. The only way I can think of stopping a lynch would be governor unless the target it unlynchable.

At this point in the day, you are the only other case we have that would give us more information. The alternative is pursuing a lynch of the third party, and I don't want to go into night with just another third party claim because that doesn't give us any leads for the next day.

[nagerous]

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

Yeah - but the Lannisters seem to have made it pretty clear that they're waiting to be wooed, and that they have the power to swing the balance to either side. That doesn't seem like any crushing victories are imminent.

Victories certainly won't become more imminent if the few non-third parties who are active keep suggesting to lynch third parties who have nothing to do with their opposing faction.

The ship has sailed anyway. You all don't seem too keen to join me now so you are all at this moment a potential threat.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Second of all, if I'm going to have to be persuasive to lure the Lannisters to me, wouldn't it just be better to kill them before they can cross me?

IMHO - Yes, but you're assuming the Lannisters, would join a faction because they're your enemies. They may in fact pick your faction, because a crushing victory is due to occur, and they don't know you're in that faction.

Yeah - but the Lannisters seem to have made it pretty clear that they're waiting to be wooed, and that they have the power to swing the balance to either side. That doesn't seem like any crushing victories are imminent.

Victories certainly won't become more imminent if the few non-third parties who are active keep suggesting to lynch third parties who have nothing to do with their opposing faction.

The ship has sailed anyway. You all don't seem too keen to join me now so you are all at this moment a potential threat.

Lol...this is just getting ridiculous! How the hell would we know if we are joining you or not?