ASoIaF Mafia Prologue (10/13) - D3: The Bloody Winter Rose

[Minister Masket]

The question arises what criteria constitutes we lynch someone if every claim/role is beneficial to at least one faction?

Oh so now are you seeing why this isn't quite a "traditional" mafia game as you originally thought huh?

[Minister Masket]

I'm a bit confused by the reaction here, did strike know that MM was aligned with him? I would think this faction would be a mason thing, not a one-way knowledge arrangement.

He did not know I was Tywin, so yes, it was a one-way thing.

JOAT may be more useful to keep alive than Strike who hasn't currently claimed, but can we trust Masket not to lie with his investigations?

I think you mean investigation there boyo. No plural.
Also unless the heat comes off of us, I'm likely going to protect Strike tonight, because he's my one and only son...

Tyrion: "But...but Fath-"

MY ONLY SON

[spiesr]

JOAT may be more useful to keep alive than Strike who hasn't currently claimed, but can we trust Masket not to lie with his investigations?

I think you mean investigation there boyo. No plural.
Also unless the heat comes off of us, I'm likely going to protect Strike tonight, because he's my one and only son...

Speaking of which, what sort of results do you expect an investigation to yield in this game?

[Minister Masket]

JOAT may be more useful to keep alive than Strike who hasn't currently claimed, but can we trust Masket not to lie with his investigations?

I think you mean investigation there boyo. No plural.
Also unless the heat comes off of us, I'm likely going to protect Strike tonight, because he's my one and only son...

Speaking of which, what sort of results do you expect an investigation to yield in this game?

I'm assuming instead of town/scum the result will be which specific faction my target belongs to.

[strike wolf]

Hmmm, survivor with JOAT powers, and a buddy, but not masoned. Normally survivors don't last very long round here but this game is unique unvote

@MM, VC can mean Victory Condition or Vote Count

It would not be the first game we have played where a survivor faction has existed that is for the most part neutral in regards to who wins.

If you are third party AND a JOAT, who's mission is to survive, what use would your JOAT powers be other then to help your own faction?

I'm on the belief that whilst they always pay their debts we can never trust a Lannister, and keeping him alive this will come to bite you in the bum, doubting the fact that they are completely innocent as Masket claims. Surviving is probably a lesser victory. Tywin's ultimate goal is most likely to gain the throne and they will not stop until this is achieved. Saying that he might be better alive a little while to see if he provides information on the true villains of the piece, the Taegaryans. Jamie Lannister, the man who pushed a defenceless kid out of a high window might be a better place to start today.

I think you are thinking of this too much in a Game of Thrones/War of Five Kings perspective in which yes, The Lannisters were the bad guys. This is Robert's Rebellion however. The Lannisters only joined in on that confrontation after it appeared inevitable that Robert Baratheon would win. Look at it from the perspective of this game and you should see that the Lannisters are a third party with no strong affiliations. As far as we will not stop until Tywin gets the throne. Jaime had a chance after killing Aerys to proclaim that Tywin Lannister was the king of the seven kingdoms, instead he let that be decided by others.

I get between pushing Bran out of a window and Killing Aerys (It always comes back to Aerys), that Jaime gets a bad rap...and to an extent he deserves some of it (I will never forgive him for pushing Bran out of the window) but read through the 3rd and 4th ASOIAF books and you will see that Jaime isn't the unilaterally evil character that you think he is. In fact, he's actually one of the few Lannisters who aren't evil and everything he did from pushing Bran out of a window to attacking Eddard Stark to killing Aerys was done for his family and the love he had for them.

[nagerous]

I know all about Jaime Lannister, isn't he the one that was found sitting on the throne after slaying Aerys until the right honourable Eddard Stark made him relinquish his seat ?

Haha, I understand that his character develops as the books go on I just do not have much trust in backing Lannisters to do the right thing and side with the rebel cause. Tywin is shadier than the Late Lord Frey.

[Fircoal]

Hmmm, survivor with JOAT powers, and a buddy, but not masoned. Normally survivors don't last very long round here but this game is unique unvote

@MM, VC can mean Victory Condition or Vote Count

It would not be the first game we have played where a survivor faction has existed that is for the most part neutral in regards to who wins.

If you are third party AND a JOAT, who's mission is to survive, what use would your JOAT powers be other then to help your own faction?

I'm on the belief that whilst they always pay their debts we can never trust a Lannister, and keeping him alive this will come to bite you in the bum, doubting the fact that they are completely innocent as Masket claims. Surviving is probably a lesser victory. Tywin's ultimate goal is most likely to gain the throne and they will not stop until this is achieved. Saying that he might be better alive a little while to see if he provides information on the true villains of the piece, the Taegaryans. Jamie Lannister, the man who pushed a defenceless kid out of a high window might be a better place to start today.

I think you are thinking of this too much in a Game of Thrones/War of Five Kings perspective in which yes, The Lannisters were the bad guys. This is Robert's Rebellion however. The Lannisters only joined in on that confrontation after it appeared inevitable that Robert Baratheon would win. Look at it from the perspective of this game and you should see that the Lannisters are a third party with no strong affiliations. As far as we will not stop until Tywin gets the throne. Jaime had a chance after killing Aerys to proclaim that Tywin Lannister was the king of the seven kingdoms, instead he let that be decided by others.

I get between pushing Bran out of a window and Killing Aerys (It always comes back to Aerys), that Jaime gets a bad rap...and to an extent he deserves some of it (I will never forgive him for pushing Bran out of the window) but read through the 3rd and 4th ASOIAF books and you will see that Jaime isn't the unilaterally evil character that you think he is. In fact, he's actually one of the few Lannisters who aren't evil and everything he did from pushing Bran out of a window to attacking Eddard Stark to killing Aerys was done for his family and the love he had for them.

Just watch Commander make Jamie SK scum, and his father innocent town. x3

[Nebuchadnezer]

Okay, but if we have multiple no lynches, then following your logic strike, the "mafia" faction would not target you two because of your low threat. They would target other factions which would mean that it would be beneficial for your faction as it would increase the power disparity. Thus, more no lynches probably means you would side with the "mafia" faction towards endgame.

There is no "mafia" faction. There are rebels and loyalists and some third parties that must decide which side they want to fight on. My question to Minister Maskit and Strike Wolf is...When do you have to make your choice? Can you wait all game to decide? I am betting you can't.

Also, to assume that one faction has a night kill while the other one doesn't seems to be a false and misleading assumption to me. I might be willing to bet that there are like roles/powers on each side. I can leave Minister/Strike alone for today...however, I would like to get another claim on the table so that we can evaluate things better. Right now, Jonty is the only one that has stuck out earlier in the day for his blatant bandwagoning...but given my belief in the setup, I can't figure which side he would be on...

[Iron Butterfly]

Okay, but if we have multiple no lynches, then following your logic strike, the "mafia" faction would not target you two because of your low threat. They would target other factions which would mean that it would be beneficial for your faction as it would increase the power disparity. Thus, more no lynches probably means you would side with the "mafia" faction towards endgame.

There is no "mafia" faction. There are rebels and loyalists and some third parties that must decide which side they want to fight on. My question to Minister Maskit and Strike Wolf is...When do you have to make your choice? Can you wait all game to decide? I am betting you can't.

Also, to assume that one faction has a night kill while the other one doesn't seems to be a false and misleading assumption to me. I might be willing to bet that there are like roles/powers on each side. I can leave Minister/Strike alone for today...however, I would like to get another claim on the table so that we can evaluate things better. Right now, Jonty is the only one that has stuck out earlier in the day for his blatant bandwagoning...but given my belief in the setup, I can't figure which side he would be on...

I very strongly doubt that the lannister win condition is to simply survive to be on the winning team. For them someone needs to die for victory points. They are not just along for the ride.

Illiad has once again slipped under the radar. Between him and jonty I would rather pressure Illiad.

vote illiad

[spiesr]

I very strongly doubt that the lannister win condition is to simply survive to be on the winning team. For them someone needs to die for victory points. They are not just along for the ride.

Interesting idea. Perhaps they have an Usurper like mechanism, where for greatest victory or bonus points the head of whichever faction they back needs to die along the way.

[safariguy5]

I don't think flavor spec would be enough for me to vote either Lannister until we see more information. But I would definitely ask for a prod on Iliad or a replace.

[Iron Butterfly]

I don't think flavor spec would be enough for me to vote either Lannister until we see more information. But I would definitely ask for a prod on Iliad or a replace.

Illiad recently responded and said nothing in the process. It was more or less, "sorry let me read up and Ill post my thoughts" type of post.

[Flow520]

I believe Iron Butterfly aptly summed up the feeling of the group before MM's claim.

So far we have three options.
Put pressure on Illiad
Put pressure on jonty
Put pressure on you.

Put pressure on Illiad [Due to questionable inactivity/scumarining]
Put pressure on jonty [Due to appearance of bandwagon]
Put pressure on you. [Referring to Minister Masket who made a claim which I (save for the victory conditions) believe.]

We can continue to discuss the ramifications/validity of MM and wolf's claims, but we should also not waste the day and begin applying some pressure on another player. The Saturday midnight deadline set by Commander is fast approaching.

With regard to who next to pressure (Illiad or Jonty), I think nagerous put it quite well:

How does one pressure an inactive? The whole idea is they are inactive, either they needed to be prodded and replaced, not much time to pressure one if they are not posting with such a short deadline.

For now, let's review some statments about Jonty:

Sorry, my internet has been patchy over the weekend (particularly Sunday). unvote, vote Iliad to make that L-2.

Shameless bandwagoning on an inactive. Congrats Iron Butterfly, you did get this game going.

Unvote Vote Jonty

Also I am somewhat suspicious of Jonty. That first bandwagon attempt was a bit too quick, and a bit without reason.

I would like to get another claim on the table so that we can evaluate things better. Right now, Jonty is the only one that has stuck out earlier in the day for his blatant bandwagoning...but given my belief in the setup, I can't figure which side he would be on...

Illiad has once again slipped under the radar. Between him and jonty I would rather pressure Illiad.

I guess the upside would be that jonty is at least present for discussion as to being AWOL from game.

I am in agreement and with these statements. Vote Jonty
Those who made the above statements, I urge you to put your votes on Jonty as well.

[Iron Butterfly]

unvote

One is just as good as another and as I said earlier jonty is at least present this day for discussion.

BUT If this is going to be the shape of how the game plays out then we may as well mass claim.
With MM they at least exhibited day one statements that one could argue were scummy (for lack of a better word) and the pressure was justified.

With jonty and illiad the cases against them are minimal at best. We are more or less looking to get a claim. Now if we are not going to lynch one of the lannisters, who have all but claimed third party and who's night actions are not fully apparent, what would be worse then those two to justify a lynch?

There is still more information to garner from these two.

MM has stated he is JOAT. Perhaps I missed it but he has not stated his abilities. Are we also to give Strike Wolf a free pass on his abilities? I want to know what they are before we put half assed pressure on someone a day and a half before deadline.

Unvote vote Strike Wolf

[safariguy5]

I don't follow your rationale here IB. You wanted pressure on MM because of some scummy statements. But now you want to get a claim out of strike because of association? As far as I can tell, the only thing strike has done is to be (unknowingly) associated with MM. Voting strike to me means that you don't believe the third party claim as I see no other justification. Well if that's the case, you should be voting MM first because he would have erred more heavily in the LAL scenario.

FOS IB

[Nebuchadnezer]

unvote

One is just as good as another and as I said earlier jonty is at least present this day for discussion.

BUT If this is going to be the shape of how the game plays out then we may as well mass claim.
With MM they at least exhibited day one statements that one could argue were scummy (for lack of a better word) and the pressure was justified.

With jonty and illiad the cases against them are minimal at best. We are more or less looking to get a claim. Now if we are not going to lynch one of the lannisters, who have all but claimed third party and who's night actions are not fully apparent, what would be worse then those two to justify a lynch?

There is still more information to garner from these two.

MM has stated he is JOAT. Perhaps I missed it but he has not stated his abilities. Are we also to give Strike Wolf a free pass on his abilities? I want to know what they are before we put half assed pressure on someone a day and a half before deadline.

Unvote vote Strike Wolf

I will not vote Strike. I believe the third party claim. I would like to get another claim on the table though, to evaluate the situation. I think Iron and Jonty are somewhat related, given his defense of Jonty. Jonty seems to be closest to claiming...I don't want to lynch him necessarily, I just want more information out there. Also, I don't see the point of "FOS"ing Iron, as he is probably just protecting his faction...which at this point, we have not determined which faction is the "mafia."

So, without further ado...Unvote. VOTE Jonty Actually, I'm fairly certain that Jonty will not be lynched, given the current mechanics, as I doubt that his faction would allow a lynch...which is 8 votes.

[Fircoal]

Unvote Vote: TWO Because he hasn't been voted recently.

[Minister Masket]

Vote IronButterfly for attempting to lynch my son.
A stupid move by all accounts. You can forget Lannister support for whichever faction you belong to now.

[Iron Butterfly]

I don't follow your rationale here IB. You wanted pressure on MM because of some scummy statements. But now you want to get a claim out of strike because of association? As far as I can tell, the only thing strike has done is to be (unknowingly) associated with MM. Voting strike to me means that you don't believe the third party claim as I see no other justification. Well if that's the case, you should be voting MM first because he would have erred more heavily in the LAL scenario.

FOS IB

I believe their claim.

Why would you not want a claim from strike? They are a wild card. They have only loyalty to themselves. Their night powers are certainly not for the betterment of any one faction. By your own words they get stronger the longer the game goes on and the more of us that die.

While they can be a powerful ally they could prove to be an equally deadly enemy.

So I ask you safari seeing how you seemingly disapprove of my action, what role would you lynch that could be worse the a survivor faction? Why would you not want to fully know what you are up against? we are now to let Jaime Lannister roam abroad and do as he pleases at night knowing his name but not his role?

[Iron Butterfly]

Vote IronButterfly for attempting to lynch my son.
A stupid move by all accounts. You can forget Lannister support for whichever faction you belong to now.

I rest my case

[spiesr]

I don't follow your rationale here IB. You wanted pressure on MM because of some scummy statements. But now you want to get a claim out of strike because of association? As far as I can tell, the only thing strike has done is to be (unknowingly) associated with MM. Voting strike to me means that you don't believe the third party claim as I see no other justification. Well if that's the case, you should be voting MM first because he would have erred more heavily in the LAL scenario.

FOS IB

I can see Iron Butterfly's point. Strikewolf has already been outed as as someone not in my faction and has had claimed for him to ability to join with my enemies. As such I now want to know as much about him as I can so that I can properly gauge his potential threat. This holds true for everyone who isn't a Survivor or Lannister or something. Forcing Strike to reveal more information about his role doesn't seem so unreasonable.

[nagerous]

Vote IronButterfly for attempting to lynch my son.
A stupid move by all accounts. You can forget Lannister support for whichever faction you belong to now.

Making a great 'lets keep tha lads alive' cause for the Lannisters there,

[safariguy5]

I don't follow your rationale here IB. You wanted pressure on MM because of some scummy statements. But now you want to get a claim out of strike because of association? As far as I can tell, the only thing strike has done is to be (unknowingly) associated with MM. Voting strike to me means that you don't believe the third party claim as I see no other justification. Well if that's the case, you should be voting MM first because he would have erred more heavily in the LAL scenario.

FOS IB

I can see Iron Butterfly's point. Strikewolf has already been outed as as someone not in my faction and has had claimed for him to ability to join with my enemies. As such I now want to know as much about him as I can so that I can properly gauge his potential threat. This holds true for everyone who isn't a Survivor or Lannister or something. Forcing Strike to reveal more information about his role doesn't seem so unreasonable.

The thing is, we need 8 votes for a lynch. I'm going to assume no one faction has the votes necessary to make that happen. If MM and strike are willing to go along with certain factions and not others, then it makes it easier to reach the number of votes necessary to lynch members of other factions. Quite frankly, what strike does in the night isn't the highest priority for me because I will assume he won't target me if he indeed has some kill or something.

[Iron Butterfly]

I don't follow your rationale here IB. You wanted pressure on MM because of some scummy statements. But now you want to get a claim out of strike because of association? As far as I can tell, the only thing strike has done is to be (unknowingly) associated with MM. Voting strike to me means that you don't believe the third party claim as I see no other justification. Well if that's the case, you should be voting MM first because he would have erred more heavily in the LAL scenario.

FOS IB

I can see Iron Butterfly's point. Strikewolf has already been outed as as someone not in my faction and has had claimed for him to ability to join with my enemies. As such I now want to know as much about him as I can so that I can properly gauge his potential threat. This holds true for everyone who isn't a Survivor or Lannister or something. Forcing Strike to reveal more information about his role doesn't seem so unreasonable.

The thing is, we need 8 votes for a lynch. I'm going to assume no one faction has the votes necessary to make that happen. If MM and strike are willing to go along with certain factions and not others, then it makes it easier to reach the number of votes necessary to lynch members of other factions. Quite frankly, what strike does in the night isn't the highest priority for me because I will assume he won't target me if he indeed has some kill or something.

The thing is we need 8 votes for a lynch at the present moment.

You sound like you know who is and is not in your faction.

[Minister Masket]

They have only loyalty to themselves. Their night powers are certainly not for the betterment of any one faction?

Err...that's exactly what my/our night powers are for? Obviously it benefits us by default but if it's useful in helping a faction rise above the rest then it's win-win.

As in the books, the war was a close-run thing until Tywin and Jaime marched on King's Landing.

The only question is, which faction wants us?