yeti_c wrote:cicero wrote:Rob
Suggested feature tweaks in the Extended statistics view:
"Estimated Armies from Cards" abbreviated to "Card Set Estimate".
"Estimated Armies from Cards" and "Strength" displayed to the nearest round number: Since both are estimates anyway nothing is gained by the decimal places.
Cicero
Would prefer rounding to be an option... I find it useful as decimal places.
On another note... I have a 10 set in this game but my estimated is 10.05 in a flat rate... Is this a bug of does it take into account chance of getting 2 bonuses?
C.
I agree with you C on the decimal places on the "Estimated Armies from Cards" and "Strength" columns, I think the presence of the decimal places reinforces the notion that these values are estimates (since you never actually get a fractional army in the game).
Yes, the "Estimated Armies from Cards" takes into consideration the chance of getting a 2 army bonus for each card in a set cashed. It's based on the probability of having a set to cash given the number of cards you currently hold. It's also based on the ratio of the number of countries you own to the total number of countries in the game in order to determine the likelihood that if you were to cash a set of cards you would own a country specified on a card.
The actual calculation is this:
(6 * getSetProbability(cards) * (countries / totalCountries))
where,
6 = the number of cards cashed (3) times the number of armies due for owning a country on a card cashed (2),
getSetProbability(cards) returns the probability of your having a card set based on holding a number of cards,
countries = the number of countries you own, and
totalCountries = the total number of countries in the game
6 * 1 * (19 / 42) = 2.71428
is the number of armies you can expect from the 2 army bonus for owning the country named on a card cashed in. Obviously the more countries you own the higher your bonus is likely to be.
Holding 5 cards in a flat rate game, you are likely on average have a set to cash in worth 7.333333 armies.
Hence your "Estimated Armies from Cards" is:
2.71428 + 7.333333 = 10.04761 or 10.05 rounded to two decimal places.