Two Sides Mafia: Side B, EndGame, It Spreads

[Rodion]

Can you be more clear on your intentions for posting this, Shield? I'm not completely sure whether you are actually confessing something or just trying to do your fair share of posting and taking stances in order to show yourself as an asset and consequently avoid being lynched?

Sorry if the mixed-in jokes confused you. I was trying to be helpful by posting a summary of what has been said about your gameplan: how you say it will work and the opposition to it, and also a little of my own opinion. I would say that it's a great idea, but it has a major flaw in that M/M players can gain town's trust by claiming T/M. I don't think you've addressed that yet, or if you have I missed it.

You frustrate me, sir! I actually thought we were getting somewhere as far as finding 100% mafia.

Since you asked, I have adressed that. I mentioned that if someone were to take me on the offer, everyone else would not be forced to clear the person in the other game. The deal would occur between Rodion and "the confesser", while every other townie would be able to reap its benefits in one game without having to pay its price in the other game. Is that clear?
Not to mention that, roles being assigned randomly, the odds of a M/M player existing is 2,72% I think. (3 x 3 x 3) / (11 x 10 x 9)

Would you be interested in categorizing people that voted/FOS me in the other game by which counter-argument they raised (something like PCM 1, Jonty 2, VS 3 and so on)?

I'm under the impression you'll have major trouble trying to categorize at least 2 of them.

[jonty125]

Since you asked, I have adressed that. I mentioned that if someone were to take me on the offer, everyone else would not be forced to clear the person in the other game. The deal would occur between Rodion and "the confesser", while every other townie would be able to reap its benefits in one game without having to pay its price in the other game. Is that clear?

Now you've gone and confused me. Is this T/M or M/M?? Cos' I can't make it make sense either way.

[Rodion]

Can anyone explain this to Jonty, please?

[shieldgenerator7]

Since you asked, I have adressed that. I mentioned that if someone were to take me on the offer, everyone else would not be forced to clear the person in the other game. The deal would occur between Rodion and "the confesser", while every other townie would be able to reap its benefits in one game without having to pay its price in the other game. Is that clear?

Now you've gone and confused me. Is this T/M or M/M?? Cos' I can't make it make sense either way.

wow, I glazed over this, but now that you bring this up jonty I have something to point out.

You're a great player ROdion, but still only one player. How is having you on their side going to be a big enough advantage to the T/M player when everyone else thinks he's M/M? If the T/M player doesn't get the trust of the majority of the town then claiming T/M really only puts them at a disadvantage. Unless you've found a way around this as well.

-SG7 ( )

[Rodion]

You're a great player ROdion, but still only one player. How is having you on their side going to be a big enough advantage to the T/M player when everyone else thinks he's M/M? If the T/M player doesn't get the trust of the majority of the town then claiming T/M really only puts them at a disadvantage. Unless you've found a way around this as well.

-SG7 ( )

I didn't tailor this plan to give the T/M player an advantage. I tailored it to help T/T players. If T/M players wish to take the deal (for whatever reason that may come across their minds), fine. If not, then no deal is done and we keep playing the game the normal way.

[shieldgenerator7]

BRAIN BLAST!

Rodion, you said that the chances of M/M players is 2.72% right? (this assumed one's Side A role is independent of one's Side B role) And you also said that there is probably a 3:9 ratio of Mafia:Town right? (this assumes 25% scum)

So this means that there are 6 T/M players and 6 M/M players. So half the town is mafia in one game. What's cool about this? The mafias are pseudo-masons!

Think about it: The chances of being M/M are really low, so a mafia member can almost be certain that his fellow mafia members are town in the other thread. So this means that they can all clear each other. SO we have, on either side, 3 town masons, 6 ignorant townies, and 3 mafia. The mafia from one side can help scumhunt in the other, because their scumbuddies are almost sure to be town. Is this cool or what?

SO this means that the mafias from either side will be working against each other, much like they did in Fire & Ice but in a different, "alternate reality" sense. Which means +points to town!

To throw a gear in my own wrench, there may be 3rd party roles, so the mafia know that their buddies are not mafia in the other thread, but they don't know if they're town or 3rd party (if there are 3rd party in this game).
Also, this assumes that / sent the roles independently of each other. It might be that he made a player the same alignment in both games, and if he did, then this would undermine everything I just said. But I honestly don't think / would have done that.

This, to me, is one reason for the T/M players to not come forward. Half of us, by our calculations, are T/M, so it might be hard to get a lynch in. Actually, I just forgot where I was going with this part.

So the T/M players can help us get a lynch, and more accurately find out who the scum are. IMO, the alternate mafia group is a bigger threat to mafia then the town is. If I was in a mafia group right now, and I'm T/M, I would start looking in the other side where I'm town and try to find the scum out before they find me out. The 3 townies who know who each other are may have pose a big threat to mafia in either thread.

Praise the Lord for complex game mechanics!

-SG7 ( )

[shieldgenerator7]

EBWOP: second paragraph I meant 6 T/T players, not 6 M/M players. silly me

[Rodion]

...

First of all, I said 3x3x3 / (11x10x9), but it should be 3x3x3 / (12 x 11 x 10), which drops the odds to 2,04%. My mistake.

Anyway, if you are T/M:
odds that your scumbuddy #1 is town in the other game - 72.72% (8 in 11)
odds that your scumbuddy #2 is town in the other game - 72.72% (8 in 11)
odds that both your scumbuddies are town in the other game, thus making you "pseudomasons" - 50.9% (8 in 11 x 7 in 10)

Actually, reaching this 50.9% figure makes me secondguess my original 2,72%/2,04%. Give me a second.

[Rodion]

Game A has 3 mafia.

Game B has 3 mafia. The chances of a M/M player existing are the odds that mafia A #1 is mafia in B PLUS odds that mafia A#2 is mafia in B PLUS odds that mafia A #3 is mafia in B.

Consequently, I should calculate the odds that mafia A players are town/town/town in game B.

In other words, 9 x 8 x 7 / 12 x 11 x 10 = 38,18%

Odds of the game having a M/M player is actually 38,18%, not the earlier figures I mentioned below 3%.

I'll try to review this later to be sure.

[shieldgenerator7]

So based on Rodion's new analysis, I'm going to list possibilities, and he's going to calculate the liklihood of each:

6 T/M, 6 T/T

4 T/M, 1 M/M, 7 T/T

2 T/M, 2 M/M, 8 T/T

3 M/M, 9 T/T

Alright so depending on which one is more likely my new observation may not be valid anymore.

-SG7 ( )

[shieldgenerator7]

Oh wow, I just thought of something.

What if we tried cross-breeding the players?

There would be T/T (HH), T/M (Hh), and M/M (hh) as possibilities

If we bred 2 T/M players we would get a 25% chance of having a T/T, 50% chance of having a T/M, and a 25% chance of having a M/M. Based on Punnett squares.

Interesting.

Anyway, completely off topic. Carry on.

-SG7 ( )

[Rodion]

So based on Rodion's new analysis, I'm going to list possibilities, and he's going to calculate the liklihood of each:

6 T/M, 6 T/T - 61,82%

4 T/M, 1 M/M, 7 T/T - guesstimate 32% (seems too time-consuming to properly reckon)

2 T/M, 2 M/M, 8 T/T - guesstimate 5% (seems too time-consuming to properly reckon)


3 M/M, 9 T/T - 0,45%

Alright so depending on which one is more likely my new observation may not be valid anymore.

-SG7 ( )

[shieldgenerator7]

So based on Rodion's new analysis, I'm going to list possibilities, and he's going to calculate the liklihood of each:

6 T/M, 6 T/T - 61,82%

4 T/M, 1 M/M, 7 T/T - guesstimate 32% (seems too time-consuming to properly reckon)

2 T/M, 2 M/M, 8 T/T - guesstimate 5% (seems too time-consuming to properly reckon)


3 M/M, 9 T/T - 0,45%

Alright so depending on which one is more likely my new observation may not be valid anymore.

-SG7 ( )

Alright so my new observation stands as likely according to these calculations.

[new guy1]

Hey, just a random thought. What if there are three mafia on each side and one of them is a flavor killer who goes to the other town to kill instead of staying in their own side. Could be possible that there are roles that switch over to other sides.

[crazymilkshake5]

Hey, just a random thought. What if there are three mafia on each side and one of them is a flavor killer who goes to the other town to kill instead of staying in their own side. Could be possible that there are roles that switch over to other sides.

[new guy1]

Lol, I love it crazy.

[Rodion]

So, Shield, you are currently the biggest bandwagon here and if nothing changes come thursday you'll be lynched. The players that bother posting here don't seem interested in discussing anything that is relevant and might lead to another case being made. What's your plan to dodge this bullet?

[shieldgenerator7]

So, Shield, you are currently the biggest bandwagon here and if nothing changes come thursday you'll be lynched. The players that bother posting here don't seem interested in discussing anything that is relevant and might lead to another case being made. What's your plan to dodge this bullet?

Well, I can't really defend myself because there's not really a case on me, it's just another random BW that never fully developed. It'll be really weird trying to discuss with you Rodion tomorrow because I'll be lynched and you'll be lynched, so to communicate we're going to have to discuss across different threads. It'll prove an interesting experiment in the least.

As to how I'm going to get out of being lynched? EVERYPONY GET IN HERE AND POST RIGHT NOW! Get in here and take off your joke votes! UNVOTE See? I can, you can do it to! Imagine that.

But other than that, sorry Rodion, it's tired and I'm late and I need to get to bed. I'll have a better solution in the morning, God willing Good night.

-SG7 ( )

[new guy1]

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

[jonty125]

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

He's SG7 and unvote if I have a jokevote. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodion B could investigate SG7 A or something similar.

[safariguy5]

Well, the bandwagon was not made as a joke, I legitimately thought you were trying to get a free pass on playing the noob card. But you've made an effort to at least analyze the game, so I will unvote for now. I will note the posting for now in case you decide to drop off again in the future.

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

He's SG7 and unvote if I have a jokevote. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodion B could investigate SG7 A or something similar.

A dangerous assumption to make. Just because someone acts or plays scummy does not mean that they should be taken as harmless. Remember, shield was the mafia godfather in NBC (before he got replaced for inactivity). Scummy behavior should be called out in any game, regardless of the player.

[shieldgenerator7]

Well, the bandwagon was not made as a joke, I legitimately thought you were trying to get a free pass on playing the noob card. But you've made an effort to at least analyze the game, so I will unvote for now. I will note the posting for now in case you decide to drop off again in the future.

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

He's SG7 and unvote if I have a jokevote. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodion B could investigate SG7 A or something similar.

A dangerous assumption to make. Just because someone acts or plays scummy does not mean that they should be taken as harmless. Remember, shield was the mafia godfather in NBC (before he got replaced for inactivity). Scummy behavior should be called out in any game, regardless of the player.

You thought I was playing the n00b card? lshicastr! WHat did I do that made you think that? (I'm too old for the n00b card)

Well anyway thanks for unvoting me.

WHat was this in response to? What you quoted and what you said after doesn't make any sense. If someone acts or plays scummy of course they won't be taken as harmless. I don't get what you responded to or what exactly you meant

*and also I think this is the first time I've responded to a post in multiple colors

-SG7 ( )

[safariguy5]

Well, the bandwagon was not made as a joke, I legitimately thought you were trying to get a free pass on playing the noob card. But you've made an effort to at least analyze the game, so I will unvote for now. I will note the posting for now in case you decide to drop off again in the future.

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

He's SG7 and unvote if I have a jokevote. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodion B could investigate SG7 A or something similar.

A dangerous assumption to make. Just because someone acts or plays scummy does not mean that they should be taken as harmless. Remember, shield was the mafia godfather in NBC (before he got replaced for inactivity). Scummy behavior should be called out in any game, regardless of the player.

You thought I was playing the n00b card? lshicastr! WHat did I do that made you think that? (I'm too old for the n00b card)

Well anyway thanks for unvoting me.

WHat was this in response to? What you quoted and what you said after doesn't make any sense. If someone acts or plays scummy of course they won't be taken as harmless. I don't get what you responded to or what exactly you meant

*and also I think this is the first time I've responded to a post in multiple colors

-SG7 ( )

That was a response to the first part of the post "He's SG7" which is basically like a "Oh it's just Sully" rationale for ignoring scummy behavior.

[shieldgenerator7]

Well, the bandwagon was not made as a joke, I legitimately thought you were trying to get a free pass on playing the noob card. But you've made an effort to at least analyze the game, so I will unvote for now. I will note the posting for now in case you decide to drop off again in the future.

Unvote. Incase I had a joke vote. I am in between voting no lynch and just leaving my vote off. I dont want SG8 to be lynched without a proper trial, but I dont want a no lynch.

He's SG7 and unvote if I have a jokevote. And I wouldn't be surprised if Rodion B could investigate SG7 A or something similar.

A dangerous assumption to make. Just because someone acts or plays scummy does not mean that they should be taken as harmless. Remember, shield was the mafia godfather in NBC (before he got replaced for inactivity). Scummy behavior should be called out in any game, regardless of the player.

You thought I was playing the n00b card? lshicastr! WHat did I do that made you think that? (I'm too old for the n00b card)

Well anyway thanks for unvoting me.

WHat was this in response to? What you quoted and what you said after doesn't make any sense. If someone acts or plays scummy of course they won't be taken as harmless. I don't get what you responded to or what exactly you meant

*and also I think this is the first time I've responded to a post in multiple colors

-SG7 ( )

That was a response to the first part of the post "He's SG7" which is basically like a "Oh it's just Sully" rationale for ignoring scummy behavior.

Oh, ok. I can see how you took it that way. But on the contrary, it was a correction because NG1 called me "SG8". His next sentence shows that he is still suspicious of me, by asking Rodion to investigate me (is Rodion cop? or why did he specify Rodion?). So yeah, your interpretation is plausible but still invalid given the context.

-SG7 ( )

[safariguy5]

Wut? Why does calling someone wrong automatically imply something? I'm talking about jonty not ng1. pmchugh calls me sarif all the time, doesn't mean he wasn't talking about me.

And why would my interpretation be invalid?

I don't think I've played a game where Rodion was scum, so I can't help with the meta.

Really? lshicastr! In almost all the games I've played him in he's been Mafia: Terminator, UNKNOWN, ... I forget the rest. Anyway Terminator is Rodion's original claim to fame because he got the real cop lynched after the cop outed him as scum! (and I got NK'd )

Since then Rodion has been a plotting powerhouse , taking down scum like a sniper on steroids. He's pretty much unstoppable. He's actually younger than me in mafia years, but way more overpowered (but he's still not as cool as me )

-SG7 ( )

Here's where you imply you're a noob. (From the other thread).

You basically said "I'm going to follow the leader" and never gave a strong opinion about Rodion's case/who was scummy until I prodded you to do so.

Now you may interpret it as an innocuous comment, but I see it as basically appearing to be active while flying under the radar. Don't make me go back and quote the post you made right after that one where you spend 3 paragraphs playing psychiatrist to Rodion and CM5 and end up not saying a damn thing.

Seriously, I don't like no lynches with no information, so I may just go back and revote shield if nothing better comes up today. His continued insistence that he wasn't acting a noob when his post contents have not been very quantitative have set off my scumdar.