Get Rich from the Bank [5/12] Town Wins!

[skillfusniper33]

I know everything has been very heated over the past few days, between several different cases, and was starting to get worried that I may have to ask a mod to lock the thread...

But if everyone is able to keep this under control I will let it run for a little while longer (or until complete if we can keep things under control). I know there have been some major issues that sound like it is affecting people on a more personal level. Please let me know if you want to be replaced because you don't want to continue with this, or it is affecting your every day actions in real life (I am not assuming it is, but just in case)

[zimmah]

i'll try to finish this game if things can stay normal but it may not be bad to find a replacement just in case.

[jonty125]

We already have a third party claimed Poisoner.
We have a Town Survivor, whos role is no use to town.

A town survivor

[MoB Deadly]

what is a town survivor???

[jonty125]

No idea that's why I quoted IB and nobody has claimed that or died like that

[Rodion]

No idea that's why I quoted IB and nobody has claimed that or died like that

Chech Deuceswild222. Skimming noted.

About the role, it would seem impossible for someone to both survive and win with town if a town win forces the poisoner to die, a poisoner whose death would directly lead to the survivor's death. It is definitely eery, but irrelevant since Deuce is already dead. For what it's worth, I'd guess he could win both as town or as a survivor in case the poisoner had won.

Iron, as promised:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =5&t=20477

I'm taking the liberty to quote and highlight in blue everything that sounds like agreeing with me and in red everything that sounds like a redflag to what I posted. I ignored other posts for obvious reasons, but by all means read them.

If the guy's innocence is under heavy suspicion, lynch away. If the guy flip town, all four people you have quoted are your scum suspects for using theory to justify a lynch.
But it looks like it's all from the same person anyway.

Game theory usually says you should mix actually.
Scum will claim whatever makes them less likely to get lynched.
So if all claimed VTs get lynched, scum will always claim a PR.
If you never lynch claimed PRs D1, scum will always claim a PR D1 and can never die D1, which means you were probably better off lynching randomly.
And if scum always claim PRs, anybody who claims VT is conftown, so you don't want to lynch them.

Equilibrium is probably lynching claimed VTs some percentage X of the time which is likely substantially greater than 50% and lynching claimed PRs a substantial fraction of the time too.

If you never lynch claimed PRs D1, scum will always claim a PR D1 and can never die D1, which means you were probably better off lynching randomly.

Um, no. Getting scum to make a claim that they have to back up for the rest of the game can be very worthwhile.

To answer the question, a vt claim isn't going to prevent me from voting for that player 90% of the time. Scum claim vt plenty and well, a vt is less valuable, especially when it's a vt that manages to get himself run up and one that would claim at L-2.

To answer the question, a vt claim isn't going to prevent me from voting for that player 90% of the time. Scum claim vt plenty and well, a vt is less valuable, especially when it's a vt that manages to get himself run up and one that would claim at L-2.

Agreeing with this.

All of the OPs points are valid logic. What I'd be more interested in is how people use those ideas and the apparent motivations behind them. The VT claim only means there is no role based reason to abandon the lynch, it should not be used as the justification for the hammer. The player's ACTIONS/WORDS should be used as the justification for the lynch/hammer. Those hiding behind these sorts of arguments need further scrutiny, especially when the VT actually flips VT.

If someone claims vanilla, then you need to really have a STRONG reason to think they're town in order to keep them alive. Letting claimed vanillas live is very bad for the chances of the town's power roles, and the vanilla claim doesn't actually help the town at all.

I mean, you don't lynch someone for claiming vanilla if you're confident they're town, but if you're not, then get rid of them. Also, if you're going to unvote someone if they claimed vanilla, you never should have pressured them in the first place; or, conversely, if they claimed vanilla without pressure, then they're a VI and the town's probably better off with them gone anyway.

The real answer to the question is "real vanilla townies should almost never claim at all."

If you think the player is VT, you absolutely pull the wagon off them. Thats basically where this discussion ends at its most simple point. I have quite a bit of success getting a wagon off a claimed VT player and getting them called town by most of the game, all of mes have done this in the past, and im going to keep doing it in the future. Sometimes its just really obvious the VT claim is real if you apply the right tells.

All of your quotes are bad though, especially 1 and 2 who I would vote just for saying that.

Zimmah's claim is undoubtedly weird, but I'll stick to my original statement that it would take a miracle for my vote to change, for all the reasons I've already stated and all the blue highlights (in spite of the reds which I obviously disagree with) that agree with me.

[jonty125]

No idea that's why I quoted IB and nobody has claimed that or died like that

Chech Deuceswild222. Skimming noted.

Apologies, wrote down he was VT on my lil' sheet of paper

[Iron Butterfly]

Rodion you have obviously been able to "cherry pick" posts from discussions about Town theory. granted.

The only reason I am up for lynch by your crew is I put pressure on you. I will admit that it may have seemed like a small reason at the time but it was somthing that made me question your alignment.

After all the sellf Destructive drama from Zimmah when we applied pressure and then to claim such a powerful role with you only saying his role is curious...is more then curious to me.

The evidence against Zimmah is a hell of alot bigger.

Zimmah has claimed a role that is pretty much unkillable with its implied threat and game changing ramifications yet you dont even give it a second look?

[Rodion]

Rodion you have obviously been able to "cherry pick" posts from discussions about Town theory. granted.

Not sure whether this is an attempt to discredit me, but obviously you are not forced to go with the "cherry picking". The whole thread is public and you have the freedom to see and argue outside of what I highlighted in either blue or red.

The only reason I am up for lynch by your crew is I put pressure on you. I will admit that it may have seemed like a small reason at the time but it was somthing that made me question your alignment.

After all the sellf Destructive drama from Zimmah when we applied pressure and then to claim such a powerful role with you only saying his role is curious...is more then curious to me.

The evidence against Zimmah is a hell of alot bigger.

Zimmah has claimed a role that is pretty much unkillable with its implied threat and game changing ramifications yet you dont even give it a second look?

I think I've been clear enough regarding my position. Perhaps if you had paid attention to everything I've said in D2 you would not be asking me this unnecessary question?

I am going to explain why my vote is on you and not on Zimmah with the same criteria I've already mentioned several times in this very game: suspiciousness, ability to prove the claimed role and what town has to lose if we make a mistake.

Before we apply claims into the equation, I see you, Iron Butterfly, as suspicious for several reasons (that is why I voted you in the first place, remember?). The reasons could mainly be described as defying logic in your attempt to witch hunt and scaring town into sending their night actions as soon as possible after the mod only said that kills go on a first-come, first-served basis (which is something so concrete that I don't think even you can deny.

Before we apply claims into the equation, I think Zimmah's only suspicious act was how he handled Catnip on D1. The "drama" you mentioned is something I can easily relate to, because I've argued countless times with people that don't know what they are talking about and still vote you. I know how the feeling sucks and there are several ways of coping with it, one of them being the rage you've seen Zimmah display. If you had stopped to realize how wrong you have been in your arguments, Iron, perhaps you would understand why Zimmah is feeling that way.

Your claim can't be proved, Iron. Neither can Zimmah's, so here you are tied.

Considering you can either be lying or telling the truth, Iron, we either kill scum or lose a vanilla townie.
Considering Zimmah can either be lying or telling the truth, we either kill scum or lose a negotiator that can pretty much cost town the game (by the way, "Inside Man" had a negotiator and according to Safari this game resembles that movie, so the flavour fits)

In summary, while both Zimmah and you (Iron) can't prove the roles you've claimed, I consider Zimmah to be less suspicious. Moreover, if we are to pick wrongly, losing Zimmah will also endanger us considerably more.

It really shouldn't take a rocket scientist to understand why I'm not willing to change my votes.

[Iron Butterfly]

At this point Im done arguing. We know where you stand and folks know where I stand. Even I am bored of our arguing.

The problem for you is your fate is also tied to Zimmahs so you have a vested interest in him living. I beleive his claim is as valid as the Jester claim he suggested. I beleived the Jester role was bs and I beleive his claim was BS.

What we both need is for others to vote and make there voices heard. I an curious why maxibandit has been so quiet. He poked his head in earlier but has offered nothing since day one.

[catnipdreams]

Before we apply claims into the equation, I think Zimmah's only suspicious act was how he handled Catnip on D1. The "drama" you mentioned is something I can easily relate to, because I've argued countless times with people that don't know what they are talking about and still vote you. I know how the feeling sucks and there are several ways of coping with it, one of them being the rage you've seen Zimmah display. If you had stopped to realize how wrong you have been in your arguments, Iron, perhaps you would understand why Zimmah is feeling that way.

This doesn't ring true to me at all. I came in to this game, brand new to mafia games, fully expecting to make cases against other players, and have other players make cases against me - that is the whole point, isn't it? So this is business as usual for Mafia players. It's a game. Lynches of Town folks will happen, for the wrong reasons. People who are telling the truth will not be believed. People who are lying will be believed. It's a challenge to figure it out from the clues we have. It is up to everyone in this game to decide what they think about what someone has said. IB could be right, IB could be wrong, but to categorically state, so strongly, that IB is wrong, stands out to me. I also don't like the linkage of IB's arguments to Zimmah's rage. Zimmah is the only person in this game who is reacting this way; his rage is personal to him, and should not be used to add weight to the validity (or lack of validity) of someone else's arguments.

I had previously reflected on the possibility that Rodion was town, and could be very useful to the town, and was pleased that he survived the night; now, I'm edging towards a growing suspicion that Rodion is not town... FOS Rodion

[Iron Butterfly]

Well said Catnip.

I told you in the beggining I hope you have a thick skin.

I also beleive if you cant stand the heat get out of the kitchen.

We need bandit and sundog to step up and post.

[Leitz]

We need bandit and sundog to step up and post.

Agreed! It feels like this is cooling off due to the divided opinion of most of us and seeing it is such a small game those two missing players do make the difference..

[maximumbandit]

I really don't think there has been a single wildly convincing argument made in the case of lynching anyone - though the above quote of Rodion's seems to me to be the most concerning.

I think I've contributed all that I could have so far in D2, thank you very much. And I stand by what I said earlier in the day - I don't think anything wildly convincing has been said. You and Rodion have gone back and fourth at each other without raising anything beyond minor suspicion against each other. Though, if my choice to abdicate thus far from voting due to my perceived lack of hard evidence is unacceptable - I can easily cast my vote on the one who is putting my feet to the fire.

And I'd do so on these grounds - you've been trying to speed everything along this whole time. You've made a few comments about how short of a game this will be. Once in a case against Zimmah and then again against Rodion. You've also been pushing for people to claim.

I think using "Why? I think he is mafia." is also a pretty weak argument for lynching someone. You indict someone because you think they did it. You don't convict them because of it. You've also come back to Rodion's English writing skills a number of times - suggesting his honesty should be doubted because he found SkillfulSniper's scene to be confusing. (I also agree that it was poorly worded. Throw me on a stake, I'm a witch!)

This day is important to lynch Mafia. If Town does not it will not be the end of the world but it will make it harder for town to win.

This statement of mock profundity also rings suspicious to me. In the game of Mafia, isn't every day important to lynch mafia? That's as redundant as saying "In baseball, it's important to score runs."

You're probably right that we should lynch someone today, IB. And I agree with Rodion that if we lynch you and we're wrong - we have the least to lose by doing so.

vote Iron Butterfly

[MoB Deadly]

In summary, while both Zimmah and you (Iron) can't prove the roles you've claimed, I consider Zimmah to be less suspicious. Moreover, if we are to pick wrongly, losing Zimmah will also endanger us considerably more.

Can you explain to me how you think Zimmahs role is even possible? I am flabbergasted people even remotely believe him. I am 90% sure Zimmah is scum at this point.

THE NUMBERS DONT ADD UP FOR A SECOND.

12 players.
At Best we have 9 town, 2 mafia, 1 third party poisoner.
One of the town is a confirmed dead lover linked with the 3rd party.

How can Zimmahs role, upon lynch, kill 2 more townies? You have modding experience, does that sound remotely balanced/probable? Do you see how his claim (if believed) guarantees his survival to the end of the game? Don't you see that his claim is a perfect fake claim for mafia if people believe him?

FOS anyone that believes Zimmah's claim.

[MoB Deadly]

EBWOP - the Fossing everyone that believes him is harsh, but I want an explanation for how players see the possibility of his role to be in the game.

[Sundog308]

I have some thoughts to post, but won't get them on here until my lunch break - in about three hours. I do believe at that time I will have a vote as well.

Could we get Skill to do another post confirming the lynching status? I think both Zimmah and IB are at L-2 right now?

[jonty125]

Could we get Skill to do another post confirming the lynching status? I think both Zimmah and IB are at L-2 right now?

Yes, they both are.

[skillfusniper33]

Yes both are at L-2 once again

zimmah (3) - Catnip, IB, Jonty
Iron Butterfly (3) - zimmah, Rodion, Maximum

[Rodion]

How can Zimmahs role, upon lynch, kill 2 more townies? You have modding experience, does that sound remotely balanced/probable?

The way he claimed, if town makes a mistake and lynches him, town loses 3 members (Zimmah + other 2).
Now, if mafia kills him at night, mafia loses 1 one its few members (either 2 or 3, so either 50% or 33% of their whole team).

This role kind of balances itself, since it can either screw town or mafia, depending on how he is killed.

This is not to mention the OP refers to "interesting roles" and "a few kinks".

Do you see how his claim (if believed) guarantees his survival to the end of the game? Don't you see that his claim is a perfect fake claim for mafia if people believe him?

You are correct. If he is scum, he has a perfect fakeclaim (provided people believe him). He may be speaking the truth, but he could also be bluffing. Are you willing to call it and risk the heavy consequences? I'm not.

While we are at that, MoB, can you explain why you've been suspecting Zimmah's claim so much and still did not vote him? It doesn't make a lot of sense that you don't believe his role "for a split second" but are yet to "put your money where your mouth is".

[Sundog308]

Alright, here goes.

You are right, IB, that others need to make their voices heard. The dialogue between you and Rodion has been back and forth between game related and personal (well, maybe not personal, but at least arguing about things that don't really have much to do with this specific game). So much so, that I didn't really know where to separate it. There were a couple times when I started thinking that I was looking forward to my next game, where I could avoid some of the "veteran" players, because they seem to have personal issue they carry into each game. Nothing specifically against you or Rodion, or even any of the other players that took this game so personally, but dude, this has been a hard one to follow for me.

I still feel that both Rodion and IB are acting odd. I recant my (much) earlier statement that they could possibly both be mafia. That's stupid. If they were both mafia, then all they've done is convince us that we need to vote one, or both, out of the game posthaste.

Zimmah's claim seems fantastical to me. Skill is a new mod, and as such I don't how complicated he would make the game. We only have 12 players, not 25 as some others have. Sure the poisoner/lover combo adds some flavor, but it is still within a new mod's abilities, but having the death of one person cause the potential death of one (mafia) or two (town)..... yeah, not plausible to me. Let's say Zimmah is lynched on D1, the result is instant death of three town members? Fantastical

The problem for you is your fate is also tied to Zimmahs so you have a vested interest in him living. I beleive his claim is as valid as the Jester claim he suggested. I beleived the Jester role was bs and I beleive his claim was BS.

This thought makes sense to me. Zimmah's emotions got involved in the game, which made things complicated, but not so much so to go out defending him and pushing towards IB. For the IB/Rodion issue, I'm convinced that one of them is mafia.

I propose that if we lynch Zimmah (who has a crazy town claim) we could possibly eliminate one mafia. Once he flips, this will reveal Rodion's association (or non-association). If he flips mafia, Rodion is the next to go. If he flips as he claims, well, we're screwed, but I don't think his role is real. If he flips as VT, or even some other minor town or third party.... then the onus is on IB to explain his side of it.
Either way I think lynching Zimmah removes a potential cannon from the game, and will also give us indication as to the alignment of IB and Rodion.

So....

Vote Zimmah

[MoB Deadly]

vote Zimmah Thats a lynch.

Its very very probable Rodion is scum as well.

[zimmah]

gg town you just killed your cop.

[Rodion]

Helluva speedhammer, MoB.

[zimmah]

Helluva speedhammer, MoB.

see why i raged so much now? town is on the fail train right now, full speed.