maximumbandit wrote:I really don't think there has been a single wildly convincing argument made in the case of lynching anyone - though the above quote of Rodion's seems to me to be the most concerning. Someone said he's a lawyer in real life? If that's the case, then the above quote is even more concerning to me. Here's why.
Yes, I'm a lawyer in real life.
maximumbandit wrote:It is impossible to prove the non-existence of anything. This is an accepted staple of philosophy. Richard Dawkins can argue all day long that there is no God - but even he acknowledges that scientifically, mathematically, philosophically - you can't disprove something's existence.
This is getting deep. Aside from philosophical discussions if you allow me, there are roles that can prove themselves (there's usually an error margin, yes) and roles that can't.
If you are a tracker, you can prove yourself by correctly saying who your target visited. The "proof" is the other person acknowledging they visited the person you said they did.
If you are a mason, you can prove yourself by naming your partner. The "proof" is the partner's acknowledgement that you are in fact masoned.
If you are a doublevoter, you can prove yourself by voting twice. The "proof" is the mod's vote count that will contain 2 votes you placed.
There are also roles that
cannot prove themselves. To name a few, they include bomb, beloved princess and vanilla townie.
maximumbandit wrote:Vanilla Townie is the easiest role for mafia to claim - granted - but it's also the most common role (am I wrong about that?) and the easiest role for a town power player to claim if they don't want to out themselves if they have a power role. Both parties can benefit from successfully claiming to be vanilla town and therefore, I don't see claiming to be claiming to be vanilla town as indicative of anything.
You're right when you said VT is the most common role.
You're wrong when you assume that a town power role should claim vanilla when forced so that they don't out themselves. It is wrong precisely because if you are perceived by a good ammount of players as suspicious up to the point in which you were forced to claim (which is either L-2 or L-1 - I personally prefer L-2), the only thing stopping you from getting lynched is saying you are a power role and either:
a) prove to them that you are the power role you claimed to be
b) don't prove because you claimed an unprovable power role, but scare them enough that they will not want to risk killing you
As I said, it once happened to me that I was forced to claim and my role was, unfortunately VT. Since I can't prove that I am indeed VT and the death of a VT provides the lowest possible risk from a game theory standpoint, I knew that claiming VT would get me killed. Then I lied and said I was a bomb, a role that I could not prove, but that had the power to scare people away from lynching me and making me survive.
But I digress. I can understand a town power role claiming vanilla in order to not be targeted by mafia (I'd not like it, but I can get it) if he claims voluntarily or softclaims. However, if you get to L-1/L-2, you are forced to claim. As I said, your only chance to live is to claim a power role, and if you are indeed a power role, you will claim it. Claiming VT would only ensure that your power role gets lynched.
maximumbandit wrote:Thus - I see your statement that "Claiming the role of vanilla townie indicates you must die," as being equal to the idea that "The fact that you cannot disprove the existence of a giant spaghetti monster in the sky means there absolutely IS one."
I hope this post clarified this for you. In summary, I'm not saying that the fact Iron Butterfly can't prove that he is not mafia means that he is mafia. That would be foolish.
I'm saying that since he:
a) was considered suspicious enough to be put at L-2 and forced to claim
b) can't prove he is not mafia
c) did not claim a role whose loss would be more costly to town than your average role
there is no correct option from a game theory standpoint other than to lynch him.
If you disagree, just think of what would happen if you decided to spare Iron Butterfly and look for another target, the other target got to L-2 and claimed vanilla townie as well. Would you lynch this new target?
If your reply is yes, then you are being inconsistent for allowing the most suspected player in the game to get by with a VT claim while denying the 2nd most suspected player in the game the same vote of confidence.
If your reply is no, then best case scenario you are going to have a massclaim in which every mafia member is allowed to claim VT and know that they are untouchable.
maximumbandit wrote:Lastly - I myself have claimed VT in previous games. I myself have claimed VT in previous games that I've played with Rodion. No one has ever stated that a vanilla claim was a death sentence in the past and I am curious, Rodion, of why this would be the case if your "vanilla claim equals death" rule is hard and fast?
You must be talking about Soundman's Mafia. That game is ongoing and I'm still alive in it, so there are some boundaries that keep me from answering what you want to know (after that game ends or if I die there, shoot me a message and I'll answer what you want to know).
For now, suffice to say that in that game "town is doing it wrong" and as such that game should not be taken as precedent.
