New "Intensity Cubes"

[sherkaner]

Yeah, seriously, I'm wondering why they have to choose numbers consecutively in a sequence? Is it really that hard to get it to choose one random set from the sequence and then another random set from the sequence? Why does it have to choose the number in order?

Anyway, I'm definitely confused now. All along I thought my dice really were random, i.e. no one would ever know what was coming next. But now I'm thinking it is a bit rigged.

Then again, I don't know what kind of feats of processing strength are required to make this thing random, and I guess a list of numbers that were generated randomly is at least better than nothing. Can the starting point in the list not just be randomly selected for each individual set of rolls though? Why does it have to cycle through sequentially for the sum total of all ConquerClub rolls?

Yes, it's hard to get truly random numbers, and choosing a random set from the sequence would involve random numbers again, and thus have about the same disadvantages.

The methods computers can generate are pseudo-random, meaning there is some correlation between the numbers. If translated to the dice, it would typically be behaviour like
'if the first die is a 6, then the 4th die will have a 30% chance to be a 1'.

That being said, I'm not truly happy with the smaller sample of dice.

[Dako]

Let me try to explain some moments.

First, it is way (I mean very very) cheaper to keep numbers in memory then to generate them over and over at each roll request.

So now CC has some sort of pregenerated random numbers (let's say 1mil numbers). They look like a string 122546352635215 ... If CC need to roll - it just picks up new dices from the memory and serves them to user. When the list gets to an end - it rewinds the list to the start and reiterates. I doubt CC changes those numbers often.

The dice are still random and each processor thread (let's say 10 threads for CC) has it's own cope of the dice string. So each dice request uses this random dice and there are more than 10 mil attacks each day (means more than 50mil dices are thrown each day). And you never know on which position you are right now - and this position always changes and to predict whether the dice would be good or bad is impossible or extremely hard.


Did I make it any clearer for you? Any more questions?

[pearljamrox2]

this is how i thought it should have been . good change lack.

[carlpgoodrich]

Dako, there is a big difference between 1 million and 50,000. If it is just 50,000, then an auto-assult with around 10,000 vs 10,000 will give you the entire string of numbers in order. Like you said, you will still have no clue where on the string you are at any given time, but you can still calculate statistics about that string to give you a slight advantage.

Can I make a practical suggestion? If you are storing these numbers and just reusing them, why not use a pseudo-random number generator? sherkaner, I don't know what generator you are talking about, but I use pseudo-random number generators all the time for work and there are very very good ones. The correlations you mentioned simply do not exist at the level we are talking about (they run into some trouble if you need to pick from over a billion integers... if the first number is 372,936,028, the chance that the next one is 372,936,029 is about twice what it should be. Please believe this correlation will make no difference in CC where you only need to pick from 6 integers). Anyways, pseudo-random number generators are very inexpensive computationally (they amount to a few if statements), and you can get a new seed from Random.org every couple minuets if you want to make sure people don't complain about it not being "true" random.

[Dako]

I do not have the exact knowledge of how many numbers CC uses. And also, even knowing the whole string... 1 roll shift will change the entire effect on the rest of the rolls. So there is no way to calculate if you have an advantage or no.

I guess CC numbers are pseudo-generated from random.org, but it is faster to access them from memory rather than to generate them for each time (even with few if/else statements). It is all about speed here. 1mil attacks per day = 11 attack per second, 40-50 rolls per second. I guess it will be quite hard to call pseudo-generator for each roll on the fly. Even if it is just 5 if statements - it will be 250+ operations per seconds just from rolls. And we distribute here all the dice evenly but everyone knows that American daytime is a peak of rolling.

So.... I think keeping them in memory is better, and the real count of CC numbers is not that relevant if it is bigger than 10k.

[carlpgoodrich]

So, there is a theoretical calculation you can make to figure out the exact odds of winning a 3 vs 2. This is what assault odds does (I assume). However, if you take a given sample of random numbers and only pick from that sample, then due to random fluctuations the odds will be different (this is a post hoc statement). I have no way of knowing how they will be different until I see the set of numbers, but they will be different. Also, I don't know the hardware lack uses, but I can generate a billion random numbers in less than a second on my 4 year old laptop... Generating these things should not be whats tripping us up, and if they are then just generate a new file of 50,000 (or 500,000) every day, and use that!

[Dako]

I guess the normal random generator doesn't comfort lack. Or for some other reason.

Yes, you can calculate average 3v2 win% if you have a set of numbers, but that statistics will not correlate with your rolls. It is just average and it doesn't mean bad or good luck will have no presence anymore.

[Foreverman]

All I have noticed is an increase in the frequency with which I get screwed by the dice. Thanks for making my CC experience more miserable.

[carlpgoodrich]

So, I just wrote a script that generates a list of 500,000 random numbers. It take 0.09 seconds to run on my laptop and uses a generator that comes standard on c++ compilers and is used by much of the scientific community. It would be very very easy to have this run once every hour (or whatever) to replace the list with a new list. You have to give it a seed number, and if you use a "true" random number from Random.org then I cannot imagine Lack would have a problem with that.

I would be more than happy to work with Lack, Dako, etc. to set this up. Please contact me if interested.

[Dako]

Well, do you know that random.org takes fee for their "true" random numbers? I don't know how much lack uses them and what CPU capacity he has so it is better to wait for his reply.

Generally, I like the idea of storing numbers in memory and changing the, from time to time.

[lackattack]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

[bedub1]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

I was under the impression the dice were "random". IE I want to attack, CC asked Random.org for 3 numbers for my attack dice. CC asked random.org for 2 number for the defenders dice.

Now I find that we are actually taking a list of random numbers, and picking numbers out of there with a defined parameter? Is that still considered random? Why not pick a random start point in the list to start reading numbers sequentially? But is that random if you read them sequentially? Why not randomly pick spots from the list of random numbers to get a random number?

What is random?

Egh, if it saves money, just give me theoretically average dice and forget all the randomness.

[natty dread]

is that random if you read them sequentially?

You want them read freestyle?

Nah, it's still random. The numbers are random no matter what order they are read in.

[sherkaner]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

Nice, this looks like a very good solution. And it should be easy to get 50k random dice throws from them, they offer it for free on their site
Ok, strictly speaking they're only offering 10k numbers, but by choosing 0 until 6^5 - 1 and using modulo and divide properly, you could make this into 50k 'intensity cubes' (max is 80k if you're pushing it):
http://www.random.org/integers/?num=100 ... ml&rnd=new

[Ace Rimmer]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

I was under the impression the dice were "random". IE I want to attack, CC asked Random.org for 3 numbers for my attack dice. CC asked random.org for 2 number for the defenders dice.

Now I find that we are actually taking a list of random numbers, and picking numbers out of there with a defined parameter? Is that still considered random? Why not pick a random start point in the list to start reading numbers sequentially? But is that random if you read them sequentially? Why not randomly pick spots from the list of random numbers to get a random number?

What is random?

Egh, if it saves money, just give me theoretically average dice and forget all the randomness.

What we're doing now is getting a grouping of random numbers from random.org (easier than calling their website as needed) and using those numbers until they are used, then getting a new grouping of random numbers from them. Because they are random (and we're not reusing that grouping) there would be no need to start randomly in that list. Basically it's the same as asking for random numbers each attack, we just get a batch at a time instead of getting them as needed.

[Ace Rimmer]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

Please remember to update FAQ 19

[beersurfer]

Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby lackattack on Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:53 am
Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

its about time someone has up and made a change ... the sour dice file was only corrupt in the fact that the numbers were truncated from each roll ... only allowing the exact same sequences to be repeated ... the sequential file now being used allows for much more randomness because the numbers will most likely never cycle the same reading, if it is replaced as often as you suggest...

however true randomness will never be gotten on any computer or software program ... the design of a random generator has a human programming it to become random (its one of the first things you learn when you take a beginner's programming course)... which, as hard as they may try, it is still only a falsified rendition of true-randomness. the functionality of a computer only allows for people to manipulate the 0's and 1's ---- with enough manipulation it can be reasoned that a program generates "random" numbers ... but to be truly random you couldn't use a computer at all ...

so now we will begin to see all the high ranks that stole the old file and used it to win games--- begin to fall in the ranks with all the other players who never thought to copy it and search for streaks and use them to their advantage

it's a little tooooo late for me though ... im done with this site ... the last 2 months of average rolls being 4 to 10 ratio (me winning 4 to every 10 i lose) has pushed me beyond the reasoning that this site will ever be fairly random ... even with this update (which is way long overdue)

maybe if lackattack tried to incorporate a pointer system to randomly select places in the file to start from instead of sequentially pulling streaks for attacks then we wouldnt have to worry about whether we are in a bad streak of the file or not ... we would pull from a different location of the file each attack ensuring us from avoiding any streaks bad or good ... and if there truly are 1,000,000 attacks per day ... then this file will cycle 20 times a day ... so depending on when you play your turns ... you could easily hit the same streaks 7 to 8 times per day (for the avid player)

i just hope the "QUOTA" is more than once every four years ... even better more than once every four days

GL to all you future conquerors

i'd rather play RISK ONLINE !!!!! The real game

[bedub1]

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

I was under the impression the dice were "random". IE I want to attack, CC asked Random.org for 3 numbers for my attack dice. CC asked random.org for 2 number for the defenders dice.

Now I find that we are actually taking a list of random numbers, and picking numbers out of there with a defined parameter? Is that still considered random? Why not pick a random start point in the list to start reading numbers sequentially? But is that random if you read them sequentially? Why not randomly pick spots from the list of random numbers to get a random number?

What is random?

Egh, if it saves money, just give me theoretically average dice and forget all the randomness.

What we're doing now is getting a grouping of random numbers from random.org (easier than calling their website as needed) and using those numbers until they are used, then getting a new grouping of random numbers from them. Because they are random (and we're not reusing that grouping) there would be no need to start randomly in that list. Basically it's the same as asking for random numbers each attack, we just get a batch at a time instead of getting them as needed.

I understand. I guess what I was getting at is that I believe I have the ability to influence the outcome of the dice as I watch them roll in front of me using my mind. I believed I had the same ability to affect the dice on CC. But now you tell me the numbers I will receive are pre-determined. Or can I still influence the numbers/dice that I obtain by the timing that I hit the "attack" button? Did I click it now...or was it now...or maybe now? How many people rolled dice in that time frame and changed the numbers I will receive? Is manual attack better than auto attack since you wont read an entire series of numbers at once...but instead individual groupings? Or is it better with auto-attack since you get a sequential string that could arguably be more random than a random choosing from a static list of random numbers?

Why does my head hurt?

[Dako]

Re: New "Intensity Cubes"

Postby lackattack on Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:53 am
Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

its about time someone has up and made a change ... the sour dice file was only corrupt in the fact that the numbers were truncated from each roll ... only allowing the exact same sequences to be repeated ... the sequential file now being used allows for much more randomness because the numbers will most likely never cycle the same reading, if it is replaced as often as you suggest...

however true randomness will never be gotten on any computer or software program ... the design of a random generator has a human programming it to become random (its one of the first things you learn when you take a beginner's programming course)... which, as hard as they may try, it is still only a falsified rendition of true-randomness. the functionality of a computer only allows for people to manipulate the 0's and 1's ---- with enough manipulation it can be reasoned that a program generates "random" numbers ... but to be truly random you couldn't use a computer at all ...

so now we will begin to see all the high ranks that stole the old file and used it to win games--- begin to fall in the ranks with all the other players who never thought to copy it and search for streaks and use them to their advantage

it's a little tooooo late for me though ... im done with this site ... the last 2 months of average rolls being 4 to 10 ratio (me winning 4 to every 10 i lose) has pushed me beyond the reasoning that this site will ever be fairly random ... even with this update (which is way long overdue)

maybe if lackattack tried to incorporate a pointer system to randomly select places in the file to start from instead of sequentially pulling streaks for attacks then we wouldnt have to worry about whether we are in a bad streak of the file or not ... we would pull from a different location of the file each attack ensuring us from avoiding any streaks bad or good ... and if there truly are 1,000,000 attacks per day ... then this file will cycle 20 times a day ... so depending on when you play your turns ... you could easily hit the same streaks 7 to 8 times per day (for the avid player)

i just hope the "QUOTA" is more than once every four years ... even better more than once every four days ;)

GL to all you future conquerors

i'd rather play RISK ONLINE !!!!! The real game :-({|=

Stole old file? Don't be ridiculous. And about bad rolls - it was your bad luck to roll them at that particular moment. It is pointless to complain because everyone on this site is in the same equal position.

Very interesting comments (except for people who blame this for their recent bad luck lol). I am hesitant to use a pseudo-random number generator because the numbers we use from random.org are truly random and that seems like a step backwards.

To close the door on any attempts at "dice predicting" I will replace our series of 50k random numbers with new numbers from random.org as often as their quota allows!

I was under the impression the dice were "random". IE I want to attack, CC asked Random.org for 3 numbers for my attack dice. CC asked random.org for 2 number for the defenders dice.

Now I find that we are actually taking a list of random numbers, and picking numbers out of there with a defined parameter? Is that still considered random? Why not pick a random start point in the list to start reading numbers sequentially? But is that random if you read them sequentially? Why not randomly pick spots from the list of random numbers to get a random number?

What is random?

Egh, if it saves money, just give me theoretically average dice and forget all the randomness.

What we're doing now is getting a grouping of random numbers from random.org (easier than calling their website as needed) and using those numbers until they are used, then getting a new grouping of random numbers from them. Because they are random (and we're not reusing that grouping) there would be no need to start randomly in that list. Basically it's the same as asking for random numbers each attack, we just get a batch at a time instead of getting them as needed.

I understand. I guess what I was getting at is that I believe I have the ability to influence the outcome of the dice as I watch them roll in front of me using my mind. I believed I had the same ability to affect the dice on CC. But now you tell me the numbers I will receive are pre-determined. Or can I still influence the numbers/dice that I obtain by the timing that I hit the "attack" button? Did I click it now...or was it now...or maybe now? How many people rolled dice in that time frame and changed the numbers I will receive? Is manual attack better than auto attack since you wont read an entire series of numbers at once...but instead individual groupings? Or is it better with auto-attack since you get a sequential string that could arguably be more random than a random choosing from a static list of random numbers?

Why does my head hurt?

You never know, because you don't know the numbers :-).

[natty dread]

however true randomness will never be gotten on any computer or software program ... the design of a random generator has a human programming it to become random (its one of the first things you learn when you take a beginner's programming course)... which, as hard as they may try, it is still only a falsified rendition of true-randomness. the functionality of a computer only allows for people to manipulate the 0's and 1's ---- with enough manipulation it can be reasoned that a program generates "random" numbers ... but to be truly random you couldn't use a computer at all ...

Again... random.org numbers are NOT computer generated - they are picked up from atmospheric noise. How hard is it to understand?

[jammyjames]

however true randomness will never be gotten on any computer or software program ... the design of a random generator has a human programming it to become random (its one of the first things you learn when you take a beginner's programming course)... which, as hard as they may try, it is still only a falsified rendition of true-randomness. the functionality of a computer only allows for people to manipulate the 0's and 1's ---- with enough manipulation it can be reasoned that a program generates "random" numbers ... but to be truly random you couldn't use a computer at all ...

Again... random.org numbers are NOT computer generated - they are picked up from atmospheric noise. How hard is it to understand?

All i think of is some out of space thing calling out "3, 4, 1, 2"

[bigpash]

Having read that has come before this, I can conclude that I am way out of my depth with what was said.

So in simple terms, before an attack do your troops still get intensity setting ie, a bunch of wimps or hard as nails?

If this is still true, it does not really matter how random the dice are.

If the intensity levels are removed, then the randomness of the dice is more important. This is why I think you get people bitching about the dice because they do not understand or forget that the armies receive intensity ratings before battle starts.

[natty dread]

Having read that has come before this, I can conclude that I am way out of my depth with what was said.

So in simple terms, before an attack do your troops still get intensity setting ie, a bunch of wimps or hard as nails?

If this is still true, it does not really matter how random the dice are.

This has never been true. There is no extra values assigned on troops beside the dice rolls. The "intensity levels" simply refer to the numbers on the "intensity cubes".

[bigpash]

II. Assaulting Your Enemies

You may now assault any opponent's region from one of yours, as long as both regions are adjacent and your assaulting region has a minimum of two troops. This part is optional in that you may choose not to assault anyone.

Each time combat is initiated, the game engine will generate a random intensity cube for each troop involved. The outcome is determined by the intensity of the assaulting troops versus the intensity of the repelling troops. There are 6 possible intensity cubes that may be assigned, listed here from weakest to strongest:

1. Pathetic
2. Sad
3. Decent
4. Strong
5. Awesome
6. Heroic

The more troops involved on either side, the better the chances that side has of winning. But not all troops in the regions are necessarily involved. To be more specific, the game engine will assigned a random intensity cube for each assaulting troop, less 1 troop that stays behind, up to a maximum of 3 troops. Likewise, the game engine will assign a random intensity cube for each repelling troop, up to a maximum of 2 troops.

The outcome of combat is determined by comparing the strongest intensity cubes of either side. If the assault was stronger, then the repelling region loses a troop. If the repel was stronger or equal, than the assaulting region loses a troop. This process is repeated once more if other troops remain involved on both sides.

If you destroy all of the troops in your opponent's region, you will then have to occupy it right away by advancing some of your troops (but not all and at least 1) from your assaulting region to the conquered region. If you conquer a player's last region, (thus eliminating him/her from the game) the former opponent's spoils become yours!

During this part of your turn, you may assault any adjacent regions, as many times as possible, until you decide to stop. For example, you may assault one or more times from one region, switch to another region and then back to the original.

When reading this from the notes page, it implies that the attacker/defender are given an intensity level.

[natty dread]

When reading this from the notes page, it implies that the attacker/defender are given an intensity level.

Yes, that happens when you roll the dice intensity cubes. The intensity cubes are rolled, and they produce dice rolls intensity levels from 1 to 6.