Calculating the deployment for an attack

[Grifter]

When planning an attack I calculate how many troops I need to win. The mathematical odds are in favour of the attacker so the defender should lose more then the attacker. Reality doesn't always follow math.

I always figure on losing about the same number as the attacker. Then I add 2 (or 4 if the attacker has a large stack) to allow for a bad roll. Then I add 1 for the region. Plus 3 as a base to attack with.

To attack an army of 1 I want a minimum of 5. I figure on losing just 1. To attack 4 I want to use an army of 10. To attack 20 I would use 28 (or 30 to make it a nice round number).

Does anyone use a different formula to calculate troop deployment?

My most memorable success was when I when I attacked an army of 4 with just 4 (I was desperate). 2 lucky rolls and victory.

[waseemalim]

When planning an attack I calculate how many troops I need to win. The mathematical odds are in favour of the attacker so the defender should lose more then the attacker. Reality doesn't always follow math.

I always figure on losing about the same number as the attacker. Then I add 2 (or 4 if the attacker has a large stack) to allow for a bad roll. Then I add 1 for the region. Plus 3 as a base to attack with.

To attack an army of 1 I want a minimum of 5. I figure on losing just 1. To attack 4 I want to use an army of 10. To attack 20 I would use 28 (or 30 to make it a nice round number).

Does anyone use a different formula to calculate troop deployment?

My most memorable success was when I when I attacked an army of 4 with just 4 (I was desperate). 2 lucky rolls and victory.

yea u are too conservative. simply remember that on average attacker will win. so 4v4 is actually something that you should do pretty often - not only when you are desperate. Obviously doesnt mean u should go around hitting 3v2 or 2v2

Your deploy should depend on how many troops u can spare, not how many it would take to win a certain terrs. There is usually a better place for deploying around the map. So there, no generalized formula.

BUT -- since law of large numbers suggest that attacker wins more on average, you can decrease the gap when you are hitting 15+ armies. winning 15v15 is much likelier than winning 4v4 or 7v7. Infact if you are hitting a stack of 30, you can probably do with just 25-26 armies.

[Scott-Land]

Rec Dice Odds

Enter appropriate defending armies vs attack.

[Timminz]

Rec Dice Odds

Enter appropriate defending armies vs attack.

or. http://www.gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds
or. there's a plugin called assault odds

[Grifter]

Thanks for telling me about the Assault Odds plugin. I could have used it on my last game.

[Ray Rider]

This is the formula which I use:

Number of armies + (Number of territories/3) + (Number of fronts from which you are attacking x 3) = The absolute minimum of armies you need to kill the opponent
Advice: If you can add to this number a couple more because if you get a bad dice you may fail, do not even attempt a kill with less armies then this.

I believe I learned that from EmperorOfDaNorth

[dhallmeyer]

This is the formula which I use:

Number of armies + (Number of territories/3) + (Number of fronts from which you are attacking x 3) = The absolute minimum of armies you need to kill the opponent
Advice: If you can add to this number a couple more because if you get a bad dice you may fail, do not even attempt a kill with less armies then this.

I believe I learned that from EmperorOfDaNorth

Mine is similar, but more simplified.

Armies on this front + territories on this front. Repeat for each front. If you have leftovers in your deployment spread between all fronts, with larger piles requiring less because of attacker's advantage.

[danryan]

One thought on calculating odds in esc for a takeout. If you have several mid odds attacks (75% for instance), the likelihood of them all succeeding is A*B*C, so 3 75% attacks actually have about a 42% chance of succeeding. As a result, for a takeout situation in escalating it's important to improve those individual attack odds to around 90%. That means 8 v 3, 12 v6, etc.