Rathet and Clank: Up Your arsenal! Day 1!

[Suspect101]

Spiesr, who is your character. Since we know you are the doctor, what is your character name?

[Suspect101]

Spiesr, who is your character. Since we know you are the doctor, what is your character name?

rereading, I find it odd that you did not claim that as well.

[spiesr]

Huh, oh I am Clank. I would imagine that Ratchet is the cop.

[spiesr]

Does anyone else think it could be a problem that animorpher hasn't logged in in over a week?

[AceArtemis]

There is a 75% chance that at least a dr. or cop exists. you are banking on spieser being scum and no cop or dr. existing. There is a 2 out of 7 chance he is scum and a 25% chance that neither a dr or a cop exist. The chances that he is scum, that he cannot be investigated, and that no dr exist is less than 7 percent.

There are major errors in your logic.

1. The odds of spiesr being scum in any given game are 2 in 7. I only presented that figure to compare it with the likelihood that spiesr is a doctor in any given game. Since spiesr claimed doctor, the odds of spiesr being scum in this game are not 2 in 7. This is because spiesr can be assumed to be either a doctor or a scum, because vanilla townies and cops usually don't claim doc. The chance that spiesr is scum is likely higher than 2 in 7, but cannot be known exactly.

2. I am not banking on no cop existing.

He can be investigated by the cop and then killed if found guilty.

By saying "the cop", you are implying that a cop exists. I just pointed out that there is not necessarily a cop in the game. My entire argument does not rely on the absence of a cop.

Okay I am the doctor. Since it is day 1 I have taken no actions yet. Good job having the doc killed night 1.

Spiesr, who is your character. Since we know you are the doctor, what is your character name?

I can't believe I didn't catch this when spiesr claimed. I find it quite suspicious that spiesr left the name off of his claim. Usually, innocents will tell the town everything they know, including the name, in order to clear themselves. Scum may conveniently leave off the name to avoid the chance of claiming a suspicious name and getting lynched.

To spiesr: Why was the name left off when you had originally claimed?

[AceArtemis]

Does anyone else think it could be a problem that animorpher hasn't logged in in over a week?

No sense worrying. Let's just play the game and hope animo logs in again.

[Suspect101]

There is a 75% chance that at least a dr. or cop exists. you are banking on spieser being scum and no cop or dr. existing. There is a 2 out of 7 chance he is scum and a 25% chance that neither a dr or a cop exist. The chances that he is scum, that he cannot be investigated, and that no dr exist is less than 7 percent.

There are major errors in your logic.

1. The odds of spiesr being scum in any given game are 2 in 7. I only presented that figure to compare it with the likelihood that spiesr is a doctor in any given game. Since spiesr claimed doctor, the odds of spiesr being scum in this game are not 2 in 7. This is because spiesr can be assumed to be either a doctor or a scum, because vanilla townies and cops usually don't claim doc. The chance that spiesr is scum is likely higher than 2 in 7, but cannot be known exactly.

'

There are no errors in my logic. The chances that there is a doctor or a cop is 3/4 or P= 0.75. The chance that there is neither is (1-P)=.25.The chance that speiser (or any player) is scum 2/7 or P= .2857. The chances that there is neither a dr or a cop and speiser is scum is .2857 * .25 = 0.0714 or 7%.

That being said, this is the case for any of us. No one else went against his claim. This means either that the real dr is hiding, spieser is the dr, or no dr exists. there is a .5 chance that a dr. exists. There is also a .5 chance that speiser is the dr. Which means that there is .25 or 25%chance that speiser is the dr.

2. I am not banking on no cop existing.

I'm willing to risk losing our doctor to see if spiesr is scum. Unvote, Vote: spiesr

This sentence bothers me because I am not. He can be investigated by the cop and then killed if found guilty.

Keep in mind, there is no guarantee that we have a cop at our disposal.

Sorry for mistaking this as assuming there is no cop.

He can be investigated by the cop and then killed if found guilty.

By saying "the cop", you are implying that a cop exists. I just pointed out that there is not necessarily a cop in the game. My entire argument does not rely on the absence of a cop.

If speiser is the dr. he will die tonight. we need not lynch him. Your argument relies heavily on there being no cop, if there is he can investigate speisr and see who kills him or if he is scum. The scum will have to take a 50-50 chance of killing speiser this way.

Okay I am the doctor. Since it is day 1 I have taken no actions yet. Good job having the doc killed night 1.

Spiesr, who is your character. Since we know you are the doctor, what is your character name?

I can't believe I didn't catch this when spiesr claimed. I find it quite suspicious that spiesr left the name off of his claim. Usually, innocents will tell the town everything they know, including the name, in order to clear themselves. Scum may conveniently leave off the name to avoid the chance of claiming a suspicious name and getting lynched.

To spiesr: Why was the name left off when you had originally claimed?

Huh, oh I am Clank. I would imagine that Ratchet is the cop.

Clank is defiantly in this game, defiantly a good guy, and he or rathet would be my vote for dr if 1 existed. Unless someone claims Clank I cannot vote for spiesr.

Also, why would he claim dr? why take that chance? Why not just claim vanilla and name some random character? He claimed a roll and also a character who is defiantly in this game.

FOS Ace

[spiesr]

To spiesr: Why was the name left off when you had originally claimed?

Because I forgot to, that is all.

[AceArtemis]

That being said, this is the case for any of us. No one else went against his claim. This means either that the real dr is hiding, spieser is the dr, or no dr exists. there is a .5 chance that a dr. exists. There is also a .5 chance that speiser is the dr. Which means that there is .25 or 25%chance that speiser is the dr.

If there is a 25% chance that spiesr is the doctor, there is a 75% chance that spiesr is scum. (Assuming spiesr is neither cop nor vanilla townie.)

I'm tired of arguing numbers; let's wait to see what other players think about spiesr's nameclaim.

[ace1217]

That being said, this is the case for any of us. No one else went against his claim. This means either that the real dr is hiding, spieser is the dr, or no dr exists. there is a .5 chance that a dr. exists. There is also a .5 chance that speiser is the dr. Which means that there is .25 or 25%chance that speiser is the dr.

If there is a 25% chance that spiesr is the doctor, there is a 75% chance that spiesr is scum. (Assuming spiesr is neither cop nor vanilla townie.)

I'm tired of arguing numbers; let's wait to see what other players think about spiesr's nameclaim.

I must admit I don't trust spiesr much but the name fits the role and I honestly cannot think of a better doctor, that said though, there's still a chance spiesr is scum. Still, I highly doubt scum would pick such a important character in the series to use as a claim, or bank on the doctor not existing with their claim.

[spiesr]

So who should we look at next?
Derf hasn't posted in a while. He should do so...

[Suspect101]

So who should we look at next?
Derf hasn't posted in a while. He should do so...

I would first like for derfderf34 and XenCobra to post what they think about your claim and if any of them can contradict .

[AceArtemis]

So who should we look at next?
Derf hasn't posted in a while. He should do so...

I would first like for derfderf34 and XenCobra to post what they think about your claim and if any of them can contradict .

Agreed.

[XenCobra]

Sorry been busy, let me re-read I'll post my thoughts.

[derfderf34]

Huh, oh I am Clank. I would imagine that Ratchet is the cop.

LIAR!! I am Clank and am vanilla townie. This helped me deduct that you have a very small chance of being the doctor. There had been less than a 25% chance that you were doc. That being that you were Ratchet and there was only doctor in the game. Everyone should vote for spiesr now because he lied about his role and that is obviouly a scumtell.

[derfderf34]

Suspect your numbers make no sense.

[Suspect101]

Huh, oh I am Clank. I would imagine that Ratchet is the cop.

LIAR!! I am Clank and am vanilla townie. This helped me deduct that you have a very small chance of being the doctor. There had been less than a 25% chance that you were doc. That being that you were Ratchet and there was only doctor in the game. Everyone should vote for spiesr now because he lied about his role and that is obviouly a scumtell.

vote spiesr

[Suspect101]

Suspect your numbers make no sense.

yes they do. my numbers do not prove that speisr was the dr. they only proved that there was a 7% chance that his claim could not be proven without a lynch. which means there was a 93% chance that if he was lying we would catch him, and it seems we did.

[Suspect101]

unvote vote speisr just in case.

[Minister Masket]

Vote spiser

[spiesr]

I kindly submit to the jury that it is in fact derfderf who is in fact lying in an attempt to get rid of me. I am who I said I am. Vote derfderf for lying.


Oh never mind. I am lynched you caught me.
Animorpher still hasn't logged in since Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:38 am.
If you like I perform the lynch scene myself.

[Suspect101]

I kindly submit to the jury that it is in fact derfderf who is in fact lying in an attempt to get rid of me. I am who I said I am. Vote derfderf for lying.


Oh never mind. I am lynched you caught me.
Animorpher still hasn't logged in since Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:38 am.
If you like I perform the lynch scene myself.

lol!!!!

people seem to be disappearing...............

[spiesr]

All Righty then...

Vote Count:
derfderf (2): XenCobra, spiesr
spiesr (4): derfderf34, AceArtemis, Suspect101, Minister Masket

spiesr Thyrranoids (Mafia) is lynched.


<Insert Story Sequence of your choice here.>

So it is night 1.

If you want I will take this game over as it doesn't look like the mod will return anytime soon.

[AceArtemis]

If you want I will take this game over as it doesn't look like the mod will return anytime soon.

Go for it.

[spiesr]

If you want I will take this game over as it doesn't look like the mod will return anytime soon.

Go for it.

I will need everyone to send me their role then.