Okay, third and most difficult, a look at who is probably advancing and who is not. One group still has active games going.
Feel free to browse my spreadsheet. Only the first page is relevant to this particular post, but some of the others may be interesting too, such as the list of most popular trips maps sitewide, etc., etc.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14p14cVfqj4NK3wDBWqbOFm4F3XXoP6iVkqNaZrkv7No/edit?usp=sharingI am only calculating "rounds required to win" for those teams for whom it is relevant (those who are in ties or may be in ties once the last few games end.) There's no point calculating it for those who are obviously in or obviously out.
Group AThe hayesez team easily carried the group, with 14 wins. Shoop's, jackal's, and aaronvollrath's team all had 9 wins. Using the "rounds required to win" criteria, including the statistical adjustment in Round 2, I ranked the teams. Aaronvollrath's and shoop's team make 2nd and 3rd, while jackal's team gets the orange bar for a wild card team. Jackal's team has the best "rounds required" number of any of the 9-win wildcard teams, so it is guaranteed to get in.
Group BFoxy's, angola's, and ckyrias' team took 1st, 2nd and 3rd spot. None of the other teams is likely to make the cut, unless at least two teams higher up are disqualified. All of the teams below ckyrias' have 8 wins or fewer, and no active games remaining.
Group CLoutil's and Leehar's teams are 1st and 2nd. Leehar's team will probably win one more game so may be tied. Either way, however, they are both through to the next round. Pearljamrox's team is also through to the next round one way or another, although it remains to be seen in what fashion. Both Pearljamrox's team and PROFITS' team still have one active game. Regardless of the result, both will make the Round of 16; the only thing that could change would be the manner in which they enter. If both win or both lose, or if Pearjam wins and PROFITS loses, then Pearljam's team will take the 3rd Group spot and PROFITS' team will be a wildcard team. If PROFITS wins and Pealjam loses, then there would have to be a "rounds to win" calculation between them. In that instance, however, both would be sure to qualify for the next round, with the higher one getting the group ticket and the other being the highest-scoring wild card team. IF PROFITS' loses their final game, they still will have the 3rd best "rounds required" number of the wild card teams and therefore will qualify.
Group DJosko's and Outsider's teams have 11 wins each and are 1st and 2nd. Umbrellaman's team and Gilligan's team both have 10 wins, but Umbrellaman's team has a slightly better "rounds required" number so it gets the 3rd slot. Gilligan's team is certain to get a wild-card berth; the lowest they could come is 2nd in the wild-card placements. Ooge's team will qualify at the very bottom of the wild-card stack.
My OSA friends will unfortunately, not qualify. The team of TX AG 90, hutchkov, and geko has 9 wins, but the worst "rounds required" number of any of the 9-win teams, and therefore, by one little short-and-curly will not make the cut unless a higher team drops out or is disqualified.
Note: I have been editing this post as I make and refine calculations. I believe it is correct as of 11:05 am Eastern time (also CC time). If you saw an earlier version this morning, there may have been errors in it.
