The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump

[bigtoughralf]

I don't think you have much to worry about just yet though. Most of that 18.6% are likely OT 'I'd love to shoot a burglar' types who think that the violence should be carried out by other people.

[saxitoxin]

Taylor Swift Polling at 8%

A new Emerson poll is out (available here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/augus ... of-debate/).

Highlights:

1. In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump who would you vote for at this time?
Donald Trump - 44%
Joe Biden - 44%
Undecided - 12%

2. If the candidates for President on the ballot were Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Cornel West, who would you vote for at this time?
Donald Trump - 42%
Joe Biden - 41%
Cornel West - 5%
Undecided - 13%

3. If the candidates for President on the ballot were Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Taylor Swift, who would you vote for at this time?
Donald Trump - 42%
Joe Biden - 39%
Taylor Swift - 8%
Undecided - 11%

[saxitoxin]

serious question for Saxi... do you believe the Donald can win the general election w/out Rupert Murdochs support? This seems like a key relationship for his success and it seems totally unclear if he can repair it. I guess that cuts both way though as it's not like Fox is gonna rally behind Biden so maybe Fox will have no choice but to pivot after the primary idk

my money's on this

been years since I saw a show on Fox so dunno

[saxitoxin]

1. In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up between Joe Biden and Donald Trump who would you vote for at this time?
Donald Trump - 44%
Joe Biden - 44%
Undecided - 12%

2. If the candidates for President on the ballot were Joe Biden, Donald Trump and Cornel West, who would you vote for at this time?
Donald Trump - 42%
Joe Biden - 41%
Cornel West - 5%
Undecided - 13%

Looking good for Biden:
- Undecideds tend to break for the incumbent 2-to-1
- People always overstate their willingness to vote third party and then back out on election day
- The Green Party is only allowed on the ballot in ~30 (?) states so Cornel West support is intrinsically overstated

Looking good for Trump:
- Due to structural advantages enjoyed by the GOP, Democrats need to win the popular vote by at least two points to win the Electoral College
- The undecided break has only been tested out (IIRC) ~60 days before an election and may not apply in any case in an election in which the challenger was only recently himself the incumbent
- With 91 felony charges against him, perceptually things can't get any worse for Trump before the election and he's still polling tied; perceptually things can get worse for Biden depending on the outcome of Special Counsel Hur's inquiry, Special Counsel Weiss' inquiry, the Ukraine war, or the possibility of a 2024 recession

[Dukasaur]

I think the recession is a certainty. The unknown is whether it will be quick or drawn-out. If it's a quick one, could be over before the election.

[GaryDenton]

With Super Tuesday less than a year away, the field is starting to narrow, so let's look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the best betting odds of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election
Election Winner Odds to win 2024 US election Implied probability
Joe Biden +162 38.17%
Donald Trump +200 33.33%
R. Kennedy Jr. +900 10.00%
Gavin Newsom +1,000 9.09%
Ron DeSantis +1,200 7.69%
V Ramaswamy +1,600 5.88%
M Obama +2,500 3.85%
Kamala Harris +3,300 2.94%
Nikki Haley +4,000 2.44%
Tim Scott +5,000 1.96%
Mike Pence +5,000 1.96%
Glenn Youngkin +6,600 1.49%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pete Buttigieg +10,000 0.99%
Jamie Dimon +10,000 0.99%
Brian Kemp +10,000 0.99%
E Warren +10,000 0.99%
A Ocasio-Cortez +10,000 0.99%
Tulsi Gabbard +10,000 0.99%
Bernie Sanders +10,000 0.99%
Michael Flynn +10,000 0.99%
Candace Owens +10,000 0.99%
Ben Carson +10,000 0.99%
Mark Cuban +10,000 0.99%
Stacey Abrams +10,000 0.99%
Liz Chaney +10,000 0.99%
Maura Healey +10,000 0.99%
Amy Klobuchar +10,000 0.99%
Susan Rice +10,000 0.99%
Kanye West +10,000 0.99%

[jusplay4fun]

With Super Tuesday less than a year away, the field is starting to narrow, so let's look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the best betting odds of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election
Election Winner Odds to win 2024 US election Implied probability
Joe Biden +162 38.17%
Donald Trump +200 33.33%
R. Kennedy Jr. +900 10.00%
Gavin Newsom +1,000 9.09%
Ron DeSantis +1,200 7.69%
V Ramaswamy +1,600 5.88%
M Obama +2,500 3.85%
Kamala Harris +3,300 2.94%
Nikki Haley +4,000 2.44%
Tim Scott +5,000 1.96%
Mike Pence +5,000 1.96%
Glenn Youngkin +6,600 1.49%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pete Buttigieg +10,000 0.99%
Jamie Dimon +10,000 0.99%
Brian Kemp +10,000 0.99%
E Warren +10,000 0.99%
A Ocasio-Cortez +10,000 0.99%
Tulsi Gabbard +10,000 0.99%
Bernie Sanders +10,000 0.99%
Michael Flynn +10,000 0.99%
Candace Owens +10,000 0.99%
Ben Carson +10,000 0.99%
Mark Cuban +10,000 0.99%
Stacey Abrams +10,000 0.99%
Liz Chaney +10,000 0.99%
Maura Healey +10,000 0.99%
Amy Klobuchar +10,000 0.99%
Susan Rice +10,000 0.99%
Kanye West +10,000 0.99%

again, NO source by GaryD. BUT it is too far out to put any real legitimacy to ANY poll. No importa; tengo papel.

[jonesthecurl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d1fa&ei=15

I had to google 'double-cucking'. I wish I hadn't. It's the reason Wrigley's doublemint chewing gum ads were banned on the London Tube.

[jonesthecurl]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... baf4&ei=15

I think we can ignore the bit about 'the oxygen out of the room'.

[bigtoughralf]

The Green Party is only allowed on the ballot in ~30 (?) states

Democracy, baby!

[saxitoxin]

The Green Party is only allowed on the ballot in ~30 (?) states

Democracy, baby!

Get back to us when Sinn Fein stands a candidate in Berkshire.

[saxitoxin]

TRUMP IN IOWA!

The day started with Trump making a surprise drop-in to a special conclave of the Alpha Gamma Rho house.



He then entered Jack Trice Stadium in Ames to screams of adoration from thousands who had lined the path to touch a hem from his garments.



Once in the stadium, even more thousands surged to see him, with Iowa fans on one side and Iowa State fans on the other!

[GaryDenton]

People are not smart or informed.

Some attendees did boo and shout obscenities as Trump passed, but he drew far more eager and excited onlookers who appeared unbothered that he faces criminal charges in four separate cases.

Some of the Cyclone and Hawkeye faithful cheered as they walked by; one man leaned out of the passenger side of a truck as it rolled by to scribble down his name and grab a koozie.

Not everyone was as enthusiastic: One man in Iowa State gear shouted an expletive when he was asked to give his info. A woman in black and gold raised her middle finger as she passed by.

[Pack Rat]

https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news ... to/2696364

Yes, but Hitler had more rabid supporters. Plus, Adolf never complained about his bone spurs.

[GaryDenton]

Now getting videos from media sources not in the Trump camp.

He enters the stadium to loud boos.

[saxitoxin]

Now getting videos from media sources not in the Trump camp.

He enters the stadium to loud boos.

I didn't see a link -- did you get the "video" via messenger pigeon on VHS?






Anyway, now that Gary Silly Time is over ...

.. the TRUMP OR DEATH flag has been raised at Yankee Stadium!

[jusplay4fun]

Now getting videos from media sources not in the Trump camp.

He enters the stadium to loud boos.

Interesting videos, and note the one(s) NOT linked and thus cannot be viewed.

Donald Trump is such a polarizing figure. He keeps politics interesting, often for the Wrong Reasons.

The election is some 14 months away, and Trump will still have to win the Republican Party nomination (polls show that this is likely). But:

1) Lots can happen in one year; remember that COVID started in Feb. 2020.

2) I still maintain that Trump has too many who will not vote for him. This will make it very difficult for Trump to win in Nov. 2024.

3) Much, obviously, depends on who the Democrats nominate. It looks more likely that Biden will not be that person.

4) The abortion issue has energized many on the political left, who voted in large numbers in 2022 and likely were a significant voting block.

5) The indictments of Donald Trump may become a bigger role in the minds of many voters. Right now, these have galvanized his core (or base) supporters. What is not really measured is how these indictments impact the anti-Trump voters, at least not on the limited data and information that I have seen.

I think these indictments will greatly in influence those who tend to more "middle-of-the-road" voters who are not so partisan and will look more carefully at issues BEFORE making a decision on whom they will support. I think many of these look politically motivated, but there are reasonable suspicions of something wrong. As I have said before, most of these (as well as the events of Jan. 6, 2021) Trump and Trump-inspired actions are due to the simple fact that Trump is a SORE LOSER who wants to blame everyone and/or everything else for his loss.

6) There has been NO evidence of significant voter fraud and many Republicans keep repeating these lies and suspicions, to the detriment of this nation. The Georgia indictments point to this. BUT to label Trump's activities as a crime organization or enterprise deserving of racketeering charges seems to me an overreach.

[Maxleod]

Now getting videos from media sources not in the Trump camp.

He enters the stadium to loud boos.

I didn't see a link -- did you get the "video" via messenger pigeon on VHS?

Homing pigeons can be faster than the internet.

https://hackaday.com/2023/09/02/is-a-pi ... -internet/

The results are interesting. In the 3 TB to Canada experiment, jet-assisted [Jeff] needed about seven hours, beating the internet’s eleven hours by a comfortable margin. The chart above shows the transit time for each method vs distance. As you can see, the internet only wins when you consider distances of thousands of miles. Homing pigeons win at distances up to a few hundred miles.

[Pack Rat]

BUT to label Trump's activities as a crime organization or enterprise deserving of racketeering charges seems to me an overreach.

RICO ACT FOR DUMMIES

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-libra ... rdly-civil

"(1) only 'persons' can sue or be sued; (2) the plaintiff must show that the defendant participated in a 'pattern of racketeering activity;' (3) the 'pattern' must consist of at least two acts of racketeering committed within 10 years of each other with at least one act occurring after the effective date of the statute; (4) the existence of an 'enterprise' which is the instrument or the target of racketeering activity is required; (5) the enterprise must engage in or affect interstate commerce; (6) the plaintiff must allege and prove injury to his business or property; and (7) the plaintiff must demonstrate that his injuries resulted from a pattern of racketeering activity. An overview of State RICO statutes is provided. 14 references are included."

Trump ran his businesses, position as President and all Executive branches as a Mob Boss. Trump even screwed his many working class supporters of cash by making their contributions a monthly auto pay scam. He is a grifter and a high level crook for most of his life. Time for justice to be served.

I though, would prefer seeing Trump as the Republican candidate to run against President Biden. The Independents will vote for sanity over insanity.

[jusplay4fun]

BUT to label Trump's activities as a crime organization or enterprise deserving of racketeering charges seems to me an overreach.

RICO ACT FOR DUMMIES

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-libra ... rdly-civil

"(1) only 'persons' can sue or be sued; (2) the plaintiff must show that the defendant participated in a 'pattern of racketeering activity;' (3) the 'pattern' must consist of at least two acts of racketeering committed within 10 years of each other with at least one act occurring after the effective date of the statute; (4) the existence of an 'enterprise' which is the instrument or the target of racketeering activity is required; (5) the enterprise must engage in or affect interstate commerce; (6) the plaintiff must allege and prove injury to his business or property; and (7) the plaintiff must demonstrate that his injuries resulted from a pattern of racketeering activity. An overview of State RICO statutes is provided. 14 references are included."

Trump ran his businesses, position as President and all Executive branches as a Mob Boss. Trump even screwed his many working class supporters of cash by making their contributions a monthly auto pay scam. He is a grifter and a high level crook for most of his life. Time for justice to be served.

I though, would prefer seeing Trump as the Republican candidate to run against President Biden. The Independents will vote for sanity over insanity.

When RICO act was first past into law, the attempt was to go after Organized Crime. I really doubt that the actions of SOME in the Trump Administration after the November 2020 elections would warrant those persons being called "organized crime." Trump did not want to admit that he lost the election. There is NO crime in that BY ITSELF. What he did and said after HE LOST I would label unethical and/or even immoral. The indictments will test to see if there was indeed illegality involved. There is NO money (i.e., commerce) so RICO does NOT APPLY here. Trump attempted to hold on the Presidency and to Power, NOT cash nor commerce.

Having served on a Grand Jury (and one other Jury), I think I know a bit about legal matters. That said, I am not a Judge nor an attorney.

More info on RICO; AND
My sources are not for dummies:

Annotation
The legislative history, content, purpose, and scope of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) are discussed.

Abstract
RICO was enacted in 1970 as Title IX of the Organized Crime Control Act. The roots of RICO, however, extend as far back as 1950, when the problem of criminal infiltration of legitimate business was documented. In the 1960's, antitrust laws were used to attack this criminal activity in business. The extent of the problem motivated Congress to develop direct criminal legislation to combat patterned infiltration of legitimate business by 'organized' and 'nonorganized' criminal activity. RICO is the result of the assimilation of several strong Senate bills modified by the House of Representatives. RICO proscribes (1) the use of income or proceeds from a pattern of racketeering activity by a principal in the commission of that activity to acquire an interest or establish an enterprise engaged in interstate commerce, (2) the acquisition of any enterprise engaged in interstate commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity, (3) the operation of an enterprise engaged in interstate commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity, and (4) conspiracy to commit any of the above prohibitions. Violations of these prohibitions may be restrained by district courts through the issuance of orders of divestment, prohibitions on business activities, and orders of dissolution or reorganization. Unrestrained violations may be punished by fine, imprisonment, and criminal forfeiture of the offender's interest in the enterprise. Civil treble damage actions may also be obtained by the victims of RICO violations. RICO makes provision for nationwide venue and service of process, expedition of Government civil actions, and civil investigative demands. A total of 108 footnotes are listed. (Author summary modified)

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/legislative-history-rico-racketeer-influenced-and-corrupt

The Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act is a United States federal law that provides for extended criminal penalties and a civil cause of action for acts performed as part of an ongoing criminal organization.

(...)
History
G. Robert Blakey, an adviser to the United States Senate Government Operations Committee, drafted the law under the close supervision of the committee's chairman, Senator John L. McClellan.

It was signed into law by US President Richard Nixon. Prosecutors in the 1970s used it to prosecute the Mafia as well as others who were actively engaged in organized crime. In later years prosecutors have applied the law more broadly.

Since 1972, 33 states have adopted state RICO laws. This article deals primarily with the federal act.

Summary
Under RICO, a person who has committed "at least two acts of racketeering activity" drawn from a list of 35 crimes (27 federal crimes and eight state crimes) within a 10-year period can be charged with racketeering if such acts are related in one of four specified ways to an "enterprise."[1]

Those found guilty of racketeering can be fined up to $25,000 and sentenced to 20 years in prison per racketeering count.[2]

In addition, the racketeer must forfeit all ill-gotten gains and interest in any business gained through a pattern of "racketeering activity."[3]

(...)

Enterprise defined
There must be one of four specified relationships between the defendant(s) and the enterprise, which is either the 'prize', 'instrument', 'victim', or 'perpetrator' of the racketeers.[5]

either the defendant(s) invested the proceeds of the pattern of racketeering activity into the enterprise (18 U.S.C. § 1962(a));
or the defendant(s) acquired or maintained an interest in, or control of, the enterprise through the pattern of racketeering activity (subsection (b));
or the defendant(s) conducted or participated in the affairs of the enterprise "through" the pattern of racketeering activity (subsection (c));
or the defendant(s) conspired to do one of the above (subsection (d)).[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racketeer_Influenced_and_Corrupt_Organizations_Act#:~:text=It%20was%20signed%20into%20law,have%20adopted%20state%20RICO%20laws.

Though NOT exhaustive, here is more of a list of RICO crimes:

To be found guilty of a criminal RICO claim, a person must have committed 2 instances of “predicate” or preceding offenses within the last few years. There are many preceding offenses, which include:

wire or mail fraud,

bribery,

kidnapping,

drug dealing,

murder, and

arson.

The person accused of criminally violating RICO must also be affiliated with a larger enterprise or group, and their preceding offenses must relate to that enterprise in pre-defined, pre-established ways.

https://www.fultongrandjury.com/rico?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvKbLx9GggQMVC_DICh1U7A76EAAYASAAEgLr5vD_BwE

I see no crime that ties Trump to a RICO violation. There was no monetary gain, making RICO, for me. a non-relevant issue here regarding Trump. As with many laws, some try to push its boundaries beyond the initial intent.

And Pack Rat only comments on ONE (#6) of my 6 points, too. Does that mean he agrees with my other 83%?

[GaryDenton]

I should have realized.
It is always lies from Trump.

Pro-Trump User’s Fake Iowa Stadium Clip Of Wild Trump Cheers Goes Viral as MAGA Twitter Denies Booing

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/pro-trump-users-fake-iowa-stadium-clip-of-wild-trump-cheers-goes-viral-as-maga-twitter-denies-booing/

[GaryDenton]

JP4F does some research.

His research is incomplete and doesn't look at the previous Georgia RICO cases.

So, wrong again.

[I am not at home for the complete rebuttal.]

[jusplay4fun]

I should have realized.
It is always lies from Trump.

Pro-Trump User’s Fake Iowa Stadium Clip Of Wild Trump Cheers Goes Viral as MAGA Twitter Denies Booing

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/pro-trump-users-fake-iowa-stadium-clip-of-wild-trump-cheers-goes-viral-as-maga-twitter-denies-booing/

And your anti-Trump folks and sources (that you often do NOT cite) are always truthful and show no biases, like YOU, right, GaryD? Even if what you say is true, it does not tell the full story, either.

[GaryDenton]

I see Saxi is still confessing he doesn't know how to Google.

I won't explain these things to him.

I will sometimes post the links to make it faster for other people.

[jusplay4fun]

JP4F does some research.

His research is incomplete and doesn't look at the previous Georgia RICO cases.

So, wrong again.

That alone does not make it wrong. You merely offer conjecture and, as usual, NO proof.

Did you? Show me what you found, "Mr. Know-it-ALL."

Try this, which support much of what I have said:

https://www.fultongrandjury.com/conservative-experts-say-no-election-fraud

and here is what I have found, so far:

“Federal RICO is a very big deal. It’s difficult to prove, and it’s used pretty sparingly. Georgia RICO is a different animal. It’s easier to prove,” said Kenneth White, a defense attorney familiar with the federal law. “The point is, it’s used very aggressively there.”

For Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, the law has been her calling card. The Atlanta-area prosecutor has used it in a number of high-profile cases she’s previously brought in Georgia against school officials, gangs and musicians, including the rapper Young Thug.

“The reason that I am a fan of RICO is, I think, jurors are very, very intelligent,” Willis told reporters in 2022 at a new conference about a gang-related indictment. “They want to know what happened. They want to make an accurate decision about someone’s life. And so, RICO is a tool that allows a prosecutor’s office and law enforcement to tell the whole story.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/politics/rico-explainer-georgia-trump-indictment/index.html

So far, GaryD has conjecture and NO PROOF of what he alleges.

more, from same source (CNN) cited above:

Willis’ history with RICO
Willis’ past use of the RICO law had thrust her into the national spotlight long before the conduct described in Monday’s indictment allegedly took place.

In 2015, when she was serving as an assistant district attorney in the county, Willis made headlines when she charged teachers, principals and other education officials in an Atlanta Public Schools cheating scandal.

After a 7-month trial, Willis secured convictions for 11 of the 12 defendants charged with racketeering and other crimes related to cheating that was believed to date to early 2001, when scores on statewide skills tests began to rise in the 50,000-student school district.

Last year, Willis brought RICO charges against Young Thug and the rapper Gunna, accusing them and others with conspiracy to violate the law and participation in criminal street gang activity.

Prosecutors in that case say Young Thug, whose real name is Jeffery Lamar Williams, is one of the founders of Young Slime Life (YSL), an alleged criminal street gang that began in Atlanta. The indictment, which spans nearly 100 pages, charges the musician with counts relating to gang activity and drug and firearms violations.

It includes a number of things as evidence for the defendants’ alleged crimes, including photos posted on social media as well as lyrics from some of the rapper’s popular songs – a tactic that ignited backlash from other artists.