Powers of Three [TPA] [WINNER = sonicsteve]

[Kinnison]

Placement for the TPA for this event:

Eliminated in the first round: Place 28-81, based on scoring (so every point you can earn in a game is valuable)
Eliminated in the second round: Places 10-27, based on Second round scores ONLY.
Finalists will be ranked 1-9 according to their scores in the FINAL ROUND ONLY.
---So if you advance past a round, those points no longer matter. This is clearly "What have you done for me lately"-type scoring.

Maybe not the most organizationally sound place to put it, but it was there.

EDIT: upon further reading, it may still not be explicitly clear, so I'll fix that. First round Scores are useful only for advancing to the second round. Second round scoring ONLY will be used to determine advancement to the third, and so on.

As there's no games to make this week, I'll try to get a score update done. Also, tonight, the Labor Day weekend grace I granted a few requesting people is up, 24-hour invites will go out tomorrow. if those expire, then I'll start replacing people, or taking other action as needed (such as people joining SOME games... this happened primarily in the games I screwed up)

[Rih0]

well, so now I won´t play anymore... Premium is over.

[Kinnison]

well, so now I won´t play anymore... Premium is over.

Understood... if you score enough to advance to round 2, you'll be replaced by the 28th seed. Knew this was coming, darn shame.

Thanks for playing, and good luck in the remainder of your games, since you can still finish any games in progress (and all games are finally started... had a problem with someone being account-sat)

[Kinnison]

Well, we still have over a third of the games running, including 30 from wave 2 (wave 1 seems to be done) However, that's a big jump from last time, so I'm going to start updating scores... sadly, I expect it to take a few hours (ow). I'll edit here when I'm done for now.

EDIT: two things:

1> scores are up. Alpha division is just over 50% finished, Bravo and Charlie both a bit over 60% (by completed score, not # of games complete)

2> Since I'd worked out how to schedule this 'perfectly', I attempted to change the elimination round schedule to it... and found out why it doesn't work as I thought it did. The present schedule balance, 8-12 games a week, is still the best I can manage for now. I'll continue to consider the matter. The problem is the shape of the subdivisions you play changes based on game size... and while I could balance the game load to 10-11 for some perfectly, it would throw other players much further out of whack than currently.

[kuma32478]

I don't understand this scoring. Any idea how I'm doing and how many more games I need to play?

[Kinnison]

I don't understand this scoring. Any idea how I'm doing and how many more games I need to play?

No more games are coming out for awhile, so you can relax on that score.

You are given points for your position of finish in each game you play. When the games currently underway are finished, or so nearly finished that the final rankings are unambiguous, the top four scorers in each of Alpha, Bravo and Charlie divisions (12 players) and THE NEXT FIFTEEN HIGHEST SCORES OVERALL (total 270 will advance to round 2.

The webpage on google docs (4th post, main page) has the full schedule, and the last updated scores. I hope to update those again within the next 24 hours, but I've been quite ill this week, and it's a very painstaking process. I can tell you there are still 120 games running, and I don't see being able to call the final results until that's under... 10, maybe. Probably less than that.

Any approximation of how you are doing would be VERY approximate, as I can only easily track the number of points you've scored, not how many you COULD have earned. As not everyone has finished the same amount of games, of the same size, that's a huge variable, and why I don't try to call results early.

[Kinnison]

Scores updated.

Some Statistics, and VERY ROUGH leaderboards:

Alpha is about 69% done (by score)
Bravo is about 80% done
Charlie is about 76% done

So Bravo's leaderboard should be closest to correct. The problem with predicting leaders is that not everyone has the same number of games left to play, nor are they of the same value. However, here's the current top six scorers per division:

Alpha:
Anamainiacks
Genoke
Dowian2
danryan
HighlanderAttack
phantomzero

Bravo:
poguemahone
MudPuppy
LucaV
rabbitofdoom
ItzPetey
paws1610

Charlie:
sonicsteve
I_AM_BOGEY
mickunited333
ga7
Kinnison
tokle

We're down to roughly 90 games running. I'm hoping we'll be finished in another week. It may take 2 to stamp out all the running games, we'll see. Then I'll have the rather arduous task of RE-CHECKING every score. I found an odd error in the excel sheet this evening, it wasn't summing all the games for each player's score, it was disregarding about the last dozen 4-player games. That's been fixed.

I keep looking for bugs like that. I also had two people ask me this week if I really hadn't updated the scores since Aug 30... I had, but I'd only uploaded the new spreadsheet, not edited the link text, which is where they'd gotten that date from.

IF YOU SEE SOMETHING THAT LOOKS WRONG, OR YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND, PLEASE ASK. It helps me catch this stuff. And every error I catch now makes things better if I ever attempt this again. Although I'd have to fiddle with the game load... too many comments (mostly in game chats) about the 4-player games...

I could make it a total of 30 games, not 31, essentially 2 sets of 8 and 2 sets of 7... (16 8s, 14 7s). It could run on 4 maps, so you wouldn't see any of them that often, but it wouldn't do much for the overall game load. and offhand, I have NO IDEA what the balancing act would look like, I have to say that up front.

Or, since so much of this is scheduled based in groups of three, there might be a way to do it in teams of three... although it would most likely not involve ANY team games, just group scoring. ...I think I'd have to run that one past the TDs first...

*wanders off, babbling tiredly, to bed*

[sonicsteve]

After setting up and then monitoring the scores in nearly 500 first round games so well, I think you're allowed a bit of babbling.

[squishyg]

[Game]7568301 [/Game] squishyg victorious!

[Kinnison]

Down to 34 active games. Weird work schedule this weekend, so score update MAYBE tomorrow, if not, Monday.

[Kinnison]

Okay, 464/486 completed for round 1. Most of the running games are in Alpha (17). ONE left in Bravo, 4 in Charlie.

There's still quite a bit of swing to the scores in Alpha, so I can't post any significant results there (the player with the smallest possible range of scores I could find there still has a 30-point variable, depending on finishing position)... but the current leaders there are:

Alpha current leaders:
anamainiacks 162.5
Genoke 144.5
dowian2 136.5
HighlanderAttack 131
danryan 126.5
danalan 118.5

Bravo:
MudPuppy 168.5 ---qualified
rabbitofdoom 160.5 ---qualified
poguemahone 151 ---qualified
LucaV 139 ***
Eddy_26 133.5
paws1610 127.5 +(0-12) ***
ItzPetey 125.5 +(0-12)

With the top 4 scores per squad automatically qualifying for the second round, Bravo does have 3 confirmed players advancing at this time. Either paws1610 or LucaV will take the 4th guaranteed spot, although both are likely to advance. (top 4 per squad, + next 15 overall scores)

Charlie:
sonicsteve 181 +(0-12) --- qualified
I_AM_BOGEY 168 ---qualified
ga7 162.5 +(1-12) --- qualified
tokle 134.5
Kinnison 129 +(0-27)
mickunited333 129 +(0-13.5)
Benga 120.5 +(0-39)
Krissan 119.5 +(0-13.5)
morleyjoe 116 +(0-13.5)
Jobiwan 113 +(0-25.5)
lurkerleader 110 +(0-27)

And that's the list of the possible top 6 in Charlie... but it does include 3 definitive qualifiers. While there's a lot of points still at stake, no one can overtake ga7 for the third spot... the fourth spot, as you can see, is well up in the air.

[benga]

HOW CAN 8 MAN GAMES BE 12 FOR WINNER
AND 7 MAN 13.5???

[Kinnison]

HOW CAN 8 MAN GAMES BE 12 FOR WINNER
AND 7 MAN 13.5???

It's not the number of foes, but the number of GAMES played. the point is to weight 8-man, 7-man, and 4-man games (as a class) equally.

[Leehar]

Ok, I've won Alpha 3-4-11 Game 7562630

Hopefully I'm still in with a shot of qualifying.
Btw, have you thought of putting harder groups into consideration? It could be that maybe Alpha is a harder to division to be in than Bravo, does that have any impact on final qualifications? (ie having a higher mean score or something?) i would think something like that would give more accurate representation then just putting a distinction of first four in a division qualifying.
I haven't actually thought too deeply about the permutations, but maybe if for example the 4th place finisher in a division is on 120 with another few guys close to that score, while the top 15 in another division are higher than that (and therefore have a considerable amount of people with lot lower scores). I was just wondering if such a scenario would be fairly represented...

[anamainiacks]

Ok, I've won Alpha 3-4-11 Game 7562630

Hopefully I'm still in with a shot of qualifying.
Btw, have you thought of putting harder groups into consideration? It could be that maybe Alpha is a harder to division to be in than Bravo, does that have any impact on final qualifications? (ie having a higher mean score or something?) i would think something like that would give more accurate representation then just putting a distinction of first four in a division qualifying.
I haven't actually thought too deeply about the permutations, but maybe if for example the 4th place finisher in a division is on 120 with another few guys close to that score, while the top 15 in another division are higher than that (and therefore have a considerable amount of people with lot lower scores). I was just wondering if such a scenario would be fairly represented...

Well the mean score for each group will be the same (: Total points scored (same for all) divided by total number of players (same for all)... I guess looking at the median would be a tad more telling.

That said, I think including all those stuff would make things too complicated... After all, the random placement into groups should make the strengths more or less equal, based on probability. If the person truly got in only because of getting an easier division, the next round will cause that said person to be weeded out of the competition, as everyone's brought together in the next round.

[Lindax]

Finally managed to win some:

Game 7562486

Game 7562488

Lx

[Kinnison]

Couple of things:

1> I've had some issues with, not my computer, by my net connection here. It's up and running again, but the wireless portion is for shit now, for some reason. So I'll be moving computers around until I get the one that has all the tourney info onto the wired connection, that should be done by tomorrow, then I'll update score again LATE tomorrow/friday.

2> The random assortment into Squads is the best means I could come up with to account for the things brought up. Yes, some people will have an artificially higher score if they were up against a very bad player... or a deadbeater. But the chance of any given player running up against that was approximately equal. A small compensation is that each player who cannot continue, or chooses not to continue, will be replaced by the NEXT available high-score. Reserves from "outside" will not be used in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So a plyer who performed well, but missed the cut by a few points due to being in a division with fewer low-scoring players, will still have a chance to advance.
There's only so much I can do to keep the difficulty level... Life is not fair, I've done what I can to balance it out. If you have a CONCRETE suggestion as to a method to more 'fairly' ensure who advances, I'll be more than willing to hear it... for use in any FUTURE tournaments. ...I despise changing the rules of a tournament underway unless it can be shown that I've done something grievously wrong, sorry.

I will say that the idea of simply taking the top 9 out of each squad did occur to me, but that seemed LESS fair to me than the method I adopted. Please feel free to POLITELY disabuse me of that notion here.

[Lindax]

Couple of things:

1> I've had some issues with, not my computer, by my net connection here. It's up and running again, but the wireless portion is for shit now, for some reason. So I'll be moving computers around until I get the one that has all the tourney info onto the wired connection, that should be done by tomorrow, then I'll update score again LATE tomorrow/friday.

2> The random assortment into Squads is the best means I could come up with to account for the things brought up. Yes, some people will have an artificially higher score if they were up against a very bad player... or a deadbeater. But the chance of any given player running up against that was approximately equal. A small compensation is that each player who cannot continue, or chooses not to continue, will be replaced by the NEXT available high-score. Reserves from "outside" will not be used in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So a plyer who performed well, but missed the cut by a few points due to being in a division with fewer low-scoring players, will still have a chance to advance.
There's only so much I can do to keep the difficulty level... Life is not fair, I've done what I can to balance it out. If you have a CONCRETE suggestion as to a method to more 'fairly' ensure who advances, I'll be more than willing to hear it... for use in any FUTURE tournaments. ...I despise changing the rules of a tournament underway unless it can be shown that I've done something grievously wrong, sorry.

I will say that the idea of simply taking the top 9 out of each squad did occur to me, but that seemed LESS fair to me than the method I adopted. Please feel free to POLITELY disabuse me of that notion here.

I personally think you're doing fine. And I absolutely agree that you should not change the rules at this point.

Lx

[Kinnison]

Score Update:

Alpha: Still too much going on to call. 9 games remaining: 3 8-man, 2 7-man, 4 4-man.

Alpha current leaders:
anamainiacks 169.5
Genoke 165
dowian2 151
HighlanderAttack 131
danryan 126.5
evilkingjay 124
mudfighter 123
reahma 120.5
danalan 118.5

Bravo COMPLETE:
MudPuppy 168.5 ---qualified
rabbitofdoom 160.5 ---qualified
poguemahone 151 ---qualified
paws1610 139.5 ---qualified
LucaV 139
Eddy_26 138.5
ItzPetey 132.5
whakamole 130
magneto_acolyte 123.5
kgbpizza 123
Darin44 118
Evil Semp 117.5

Charlie:
sonicsteve 181 ---qualified
I_AM_BOGEY 168 ---qualified
ga7 164.5 ---qualified
tokle 134.5
Krissan 133
Benga 132.5 +(0-27)
Kinnison 129 +(0-27)
mickunited333 129 +(0-13.5)
Timminz 126
morleyjoe 123
shoop76 122.5
Jobiwan 120
lurkerleader 110 +(0-27)

The cutoff for advancing looks LIKELY to be about 120-125 points. However, there appear to be at least two players likely to advance who have, one way or another, expressed a desire NOT to do so, so there may be slots available.

[Kinnison]

Alpha is down to 5 games, no eliminations, Charlie is down to one, which is down to the last two players.

Score sheet updated on front page link.

[Kinnison]

EDITED:
1 game left in Alpha. However, it's now complete enough I can call the automatic 12 qualifiers... I can't be certain of all placings yet for the first round, however.

ALPHA: -current scores (amounts in parentheses depend on games in progress)
anamainiacks 174.5 ---qualified
genoke 165 ---qualified
dowian2 158 ---qualified
HighlanderAttack 155.5 ---qualified
danryan 139.5
mudfighter 132 +(0-6)
Enormastitz 131
DresdenSooner 124.5
evilkingjay 124
drunkmonkey 122.5
reahma 120.5
rishark1969 120
Lindax 120


Bravo COMPLETE:
MudPuppy 168.5 ---qualified
rabbitofdoom 160.5 ---qualified
poguemahone 151 ---qualified
paws1610 139.5 ---qualified
LucaV 139
Eddy_26 138.5
ItzPetey 132.5
whakamole 130
magneto_acolyte 123.5
kgbpizza 123
Darin44 118
Evil Semp 117.5

CHARLIE: -completed
sonicsteve 181 ---qualified
I_AM_BOGEY 168 ---qualified
ga7 164.5 ---qualified
Kinnison 145.5 ---qualified
Benga 135.5
tokle 134.5
Krissan 133
lurlerleader 130.5
mickunited333 129
Timminz 126
Blinkadyblink 123.5
morleyjoe 123
shoop76 122.5
Jobiwan 120


PRELIMINARY RESULTS:
Once the final scores are in, I will have to verify that everyone who advanced wishes to continue. At the moment, it appears 2 individuals will make the cut who will NOT be advancing.

evilkingjay has a newborn daughter, and, as such, has had CC drop on the 'priorities of life' list. Understandable, and congratulations.
mickunited333 deadbeated out of the end of round one, and was DQed as a result.


AT THE MOMENT, it appears that scores of 123.5 will get into the second round, 123.0 would not. HOWEVER, there's at least one player below that threshold who could reach above it, and as the number of slots is what matters, that would change things... as well as create a possible tie situation.

I will be PMing all of the possible advancing players, establishing that they are interested in playing the second round. before posting any final results.

[Kinnison]

Final Results, Round 1:

There is one game in Alpha running. Hoever, the only effect of it will be to adjust the score of one player who made the cut, and 3 who will, regrettably, not... even if they win the remaining game.

In the Preliminary round, the four top scores in each squad, and the next 15 best overall scores will advance to the elimination round.

The top 4 from each Squad...:
ALPHA-anamainiacks 174.5
ALPHA-genoke 165
ALPHA-dowian2 158
ALPHA-HighlanderAttack 155.5
BRAVO-MudPuppy 168.5
BRAVO-rabbitofdoom 160.5
BRAVO-poguemahone 151
BRAVO-paws1610 139.5
CHARLIE-sonicsteve 181
CHARLIE-I_AM_BOGEY 168
CHARLIE-ga7 164.5
CHARLIE-Kinnison 145.5

...and the next 15 best overall scores...
139.5 danryan
139.0 LucaV
138.5 Eddy_26
135.5 Benga
134.5 tokle
133.0 Krissan
132.5 ItzPetey
132.0 mudfighter
131.0 Enormastitz
130.5 lurkerleader
130.0 whakamole
129.0 mickunited333 ----- DISQUALIFIED for deadbeating
126.0 Timminz
124.5 DresdenSooner
124.0 evilkingjay -----WITHDRAWN

Reserves as such will be used ONLY in the Preliminary round. If I need a fill-in in later rounds, it will be the top-ranked player who did not advance from the prior round, and their TPA standing shall be altered accordingly.

As such, with two slots to fill, I'm pleased to announce that the next two individuals, who had been tied for 28th, will now advance to round two and rank 27th or better.

123.5 Blinkadyblink
123.5 magneto_acolyte


Tentative TPA rankings have been added to the schedule/scoring post on the first page.

1. Players marked with a * may have their ranks shift within the range of askerisked players based on the outcome of the remaining R1 game.
2. All players involved in tied ranks are listed in alphabetical order within the tie. There is no sinister agenda here.
3. As/if players get called (from ranks 30 down, at the moment) to play in the second round to cover for players... they will be moved into the top 27, and ranks 28 and 29 (at the moment) will be moved downwards to compensate.
4. When players in a group of tied scores are called to play, random.org will determine the order in which they will be called to play in the next round. please note that I do not anticipate any players being called to play in later rounds once the second round begins... but it could happen

At this moment, 21 of the 27 players expected for the second round have confirmed their interest. Not bad for only 7 hours after I sent out the question.


Questions, Comments, Criticisms, Bitches or Gripes?

[Kinnison]

The last Alpha game is complete. Scores and rankings updated.

I'm randomizing the seeds now and posting that data, then putting the shuffled list into the schedule. At THAT point, the current schedule will be posted.

Games will actually go out tomorrow, sorry for the extra day's wait. Intended to do all this last night on break at work... forgot the computers I can use there don't have Excel.


For anyone who missed it, the maps for Round 2 are:

8-player Fractured America
7-player Eastern Hemisphere
4-player South America

[Kinnison]

Round one fully complete.

Round 2 schedule- players shuffled, games locked. Wave one has been sent out.

Wave 2 due on October 25-26; Wave 3 due on November 8-9. Expect Round 3/finals to start January 3-4, 2011. Round 2 games may be complete before then, but I'm not starting a tournament round DURING the holidays. If the top 9 can be decided with CERTAINTY before mid-December, Finals wave ONE will go out before the Holidays. But wave 2 will still be delayed until a MINIMUM of Jan 3.

When I plotted this, I planned on both a wave each week, and 5 weeks to finish a wave after last games... with running waves on alternate weeks, and it taking about 7 weeks to finish... well, I was hoping to have the finals done at the turn of the year... instead, we'll be starting them after it. So be it.

[Kinnison]

One week into R2, wave 1 - no eliminations yet, 54 games running. Wave 2 will hit next Monday or Tuesday...