Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[PepeAtila]

Unvote

Its a joke wagon, come on!

I know it was a joke wagon, but why to unvote so fast?

[SoN!c]

Unvote

Its a joke wagon, come on!

I know it was a joke wagon, but why to unvote so fast?

This +1

Im glad somebody else feels the same about that superfast unvote (less then 15 minutes), after Strike got on L-2, panic unvote perhaps? Since we have very few things to go on this qualifies as such

[SoN!c]

Fun theory:

Charle did not randomise the set-up, but instead he went for a fun Charle's Friends & Enemies set-up where he chose the scumteams himself - knowing he can always say 'it's random' just like the 9-9-9-9-9-9 random cartoon.

In that set-up, well Strike has to be the wolf. Just gotta be - there is no other way. Strike being a wolf is a fun thing i certainly can see Charle doing here.

Then he gets a wolf partner for Strike that would see the humour, that partner would / could be DDS..

DDS thinking; dangnaggit i'll better use the Strike Wolf LOOK AT HIS NAME joke so people won't get the idea he is the actual wolf.

Panic-stricken when he saw Devante was serious about lynching his scum partner Strike and Pepe putting him on L-2 already he fast unvoted.

Fun theory yes?

show

[Extreme Ways]

My working theory is that one of the no-lynch people just dont want to be lynched themselves

[SoN!c]

My working theory is that one of the no-lynch people just dont want to be lynched themselves

But that is a real theory, not a fun theory

[Loose Canon]

In my book probability of a mislynch D1 is closer to 53% than 63% because of 2 masons.

Probability of each faction winning 33%

Makes lynching D1 good.

WANT Max to justify his value in this game.
Max why shouldn't you be lynched, what do you have to offer, what level of contribution will you commit to D2 onwards - because a random lynchon you is appealing to me at least

[SoN!c]

In my book probability of a mislynch D1 is closer to 53% than 63% because of 2 masons.

You do know the Masons (and the spare mason) are just townies? 4 scum, 7 townies is not 4/7 or whatever you make of it to come closer to 53% but it's a clean 4/11 chance in the end.

We have 36.36% chance to hit a scummie on D1 and 63.64% chance to hit a townie on D1 if we would vote by random and that is 100% correct.

I have no idea why you say it's close to 53% because of two masons but i would like to read your book someday, must be fun The Book of Loose chapter "half a diào" page 250. Remember last game Loose

[Extreme Ways]

I'm curious how he got to his numbers, if masons are harder to eliminate then surely so are scum

[DirtyDishSoap]

Unvote

Its a joke wagon, come on!

I know it was a joke wagon, but why to unvote so fast?

This +1

Im glad somebody else feels the same about that superfast unvote (less then 15 minutes), after Strike got on L-2, panic unvote perhaps? Since we have very few things to go on this qualifies as such

[SoN!c]

[Loose Canon]

I'm curious how he got to his numbers, if masons are harder to eliminate then surely so are scum

My maths is slightly wrong which is scummy for an accountant in real life. Its 56% not 53% blaming it on a scummy keyboard though.

Basically my presumption is a Mason on the verge of being lynched D1 would claim.
A fake Mason claim by a scum faction D1 would be called out and the calling out would be verifiable by the other Mason if the real Mason got to -1.
So I don't think a fake mason claim by scum is an option.

Every faction has 2 known to each other D1.
That has made me rethink a bit of my logic.

Yes there are arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 but I'd say it tends more to 5/9 than 7/11
I think the arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 are more around the possibility that scum factions will gravitate naturally towards vanilla town and that noone will defend vanilla town. Lets call this natural gravitation X
So perhaps mislynch probability is (5/9)+X rather than (7/11)+X

I think what we can agree on is D1 Masons are harder to eliminate than Scum, but Scum are harder to eliminate than Vanilla Town?

We can all think about what value we each place on X - but what I would say is its not necessarily that That High because won't each 2 faction have a natural preference to split their votes?

[SoN!c]

I'm curious how he got to his numbers, if masons are harder to eliminate then surely so are scum

My maths is slightly wrong which is scummy for an accountant in real life. Its 56% not 53% blaming it on a scummy keyboard though.

Basically my presumption is a Mason on the verge of being lynched D1 would claim.
A fake Mason claim by a scum faction D1 would be called out and the calling out would be verifiable by the other Mason if the real Mason got to -1.
So I don't think a fake mason claim by scum is an option.

Every faction has 2 known to each other D1.
That has made me rethink a bit of my logic.

Yes there are arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 but I'd say it tends more to 5/9 than 7/11
I think the arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 are more around the possibility that scum factions will gravitate naturally towards vanilla town and that noone will defend vanilla town. Lets call this natural gravitation X
So perhaps mislynch probability is (5/9)+X rather than (7/11)+X

I think what we can agree on is D1 Masons are harder to eliminate than Scum, but Scum are harder to eliminate than Vanilla Town?

We can all think about what value we each place on X - but what I would say is its not necessarily that That High because won't each 2 faction have a natural preference to split their votes?

Already figured that part out Loose - but you would still need to convince the other 4 townies on D1 with - like you say yourself - 3 faction duo's that are equally strong and the chance town would vote for a Mason is just 2/11. We would probably end up on a townie anyways. So that margin what you call X is negligible in percentage quantity i feel.

But since you are taking point with good points (the silent ones, will Max contribute,.. and so on..) i'll give it a shot.. Just don't oversee my fun theory - DDS replied with a gif man who's head is wrapped up in tin foil in case you didn't notice..

[strike wolf]

I will wait a little because I have no idea what is the best thing to do, but if most people think we should vote lynch I will do it.

Come on Pepe put forward an argument with reasoning - any argument.

Perhaps you are asking too much... 'an argument with reasoning'' ?
sorry it is the charles bad joke effect...

Serious now: I have no clue, but looking for a reason it can be a good option put some fear on strike because of his name and try to get some information from him (L-2) vote Strike

It's a joke wagon, Pepe. I mean I could change my name but then who would I be? Inigo Montoya? People would be expecting me to seek revenge on the man who murdered my father and quoting Mandy Patinkin from the movie. My father isn't even dead! Robin Hood? Stealing from the rich is a lot of pressure and I'd already be under too much pressure wearing those damn tights! Which by the way, is also why I wouldn't be Deadpool...well that and I don't want my body to be comprised of 200% cancer cells. I guess I could be Iron Man but all those suits smell like RDJ's piss.

Roses are red. Violets are blue. Son!cs theories are crazy but we're all crazy too.

[SoN!c]

Roses are red. Violets are blue. Son!cs theories are crazy but we're all crazy too.

It's ok buddy. Hey, in my first game calling it SoN!c's friends i would have made you the wolf too. And i would have PARTNERED you with DDS for sure

[DirtyDishSoap]

Well, I'm one of dem "no lyncher" fellers. Given how fast everyone lynched me for it last game. Bunch of hooligans!

I would never stay on a joke wagon to begin with before it got out of hand.

[SoN!c]

Well, I'm one of dem "no lyncher" fellers. Given how fast everyone lynched me for it last game. Bunch of hooligans!

I would never stay on a joke wagon to begin with before it got out of hand.

Great denial you guys are not the wolf pair I get why you are one of dem "no lyncher" fellers now!

But Rule N° 1 on scum is 'when there is No hard denial = They are soft admitting it'

equals "Game over wolf pair"

GG guys - but no escape from this and you guys know it

[SoN!c]

@Euwe/Walter : one scum pair down, how do we proceed to the next?

[Loose Canon]

[quote="SoN!c"]Fun theory:

Charle did not randomise the set-up, but instead he went for a fun Charle's Friends & Enemies set-up where he chose the scumteams himself - knowing he can always say 'it's random' just like the 9-9-9-9-9-9 random cartoon.

In that set-up, well Strike has to be the wolf. Just gotta be - there is no other way. Strike being a wolf is a fun thing i certainly can see Charle doing here.

Then he gets a wolf partner for Strike that would see the humour, that partner would / could be DDS..

DDS thinking; dangnaggit i'll better use the Strike Wolf LOOK AT HIS NAME joke so people won't get the idea he is the actual wolf.

Panic-stricken when he saw Devante was serious about lynching his scum partner Strike and Pepe putting him on L-2 already he fast unvoted.

Fun theory yes?


Is that a fun theory?

You voted Max unvoted him, sort of supported the idea of voting for max as a low contributor, then put in people's minds a "fun theory" that would preclude max as being scum because nobody's idea of fun would be to choose Max to have power.
I reckon randomised pairings have been made.
And it could be Sonic and Max are a pairing.
Would have FOS on Sonic if Max turned scum and vice versa.

That's only very marginal to me targetting Max.

I don't think Max will contribute much and so if he turns out to be a D1 Town mislynch it would easily in my book be the least worse Town mislynch.

VOTE MAXLEOD

[Loose Canon]

Apologies took out the bottom part after "Fun Theory yes?" up to which was Sonic's quote in the above.
- so you can't see where quoting Sonic ended - my bad - scummy keyboard again.

[SoN!c]

OMG wolf pair DDS-Strike admitted it in a way but you didn't see that? sO did DDS in a way And because of that you think im a scum pair with Max??

Okay loose membrain, i'll vote with ya

uNVOTE

VOTE MAX

SHEESH!!

[PepeAtila]

show

Roses are red. Violets are blue. Son!cs theories are crazy but we're all crazy too.

I'm not telling that you should change your name, but I guess you and DDS can be a pair (in this game) ... I am not telling who is the wolf and who is "little red riding hood" ...
However since I don't see it clear and people are changing ... unvote vote Max

[DirtyDishSoap]

Well, I'm one of dem "no lyncher" fellers. Given how fast everyone lynched me for it last game. Bunch of hooligans!

I would never stay on a joke wagon to begin with before it got out of hand.

Great denial you guys are not the wolf pair I get why you are one of dem "no lyncher" fellers now!

But Rule N° 1 on scum is 'when there is No hard denial = They are soft admitting it'

equals "Game over wolf pair"

GG guys - but no escape from this and you guys know it

Oh boy, here we go again.

[Ragian]

Voting Max is a cop out. We learn nothing. If Max doesn't show, he should be subbed. What are you doing?

[DirtyDishSoap]

Hear hear! Max contributes close to nil. Better off lynching Ragen here, who is his scum buddy! How do i know this, pray tell? Because Roog here has dysentery! You decide, gentlemen!

[PepeAtila]

Voting Max is a cop out. We learn nothing. If Max doesn't show, he should be subbed. What are you doing?

perhaps you are right unvote I would prefer to vote another by now ... some hints?