Iron Butterfly wrote:TA1LGUNN3R wrote:The thing with Spartacus is that even though he may be town now, he will be mafia later, and therefore has little incentive to help town. He would have to pretty much make sure that mafia is killed off completely before he can win as town, and that is a difficult task (let's say we assume...D5-D6? or so). So we'd have to have a better lynch success rate than normally goes on, and we'd have to have some decent vig kills (if there are any) That is, if he wanted to win as town.
-Tails
You can still be killed and have Towns best interests. Why would you assume because he ends up turning Deatheater he does not have Wizards best interest until that point?
...and? The problem is that he's not exactly sure when he'll turn, which means that he can be all gung-ho town, but once he turns, he's a dead man, and therefore he'll likely lose. It's much smarter for him at this point to keep his mouth shut about ANY info he might have and hope for a scum win.
Or, alternately, he could avoid using his ability if he has that option, to remain town and hope for a town win. I'm just trying to weigh the cost-benefit options available to him now, and thereby predicting likely courses of action.
imo the greatest benefit of his role is to the scum, especially now that he's outed. The action itself is random, according to spartacus, which is problematic, and could benefit town little. However, when he turns, or we oblige by killing him early, this soaks up a free death for mafia, allowing the rest that much more cover.
Strike wrote:because he's going to tell us when he flips mafia so we can lynch him then.
This. (Assuming this is sarcastic). When he flips, his WC will change, and he's not going to tell us when that occurs.
Iron Butterfly wrote:...And maybe Strikes problem is that he doesnt want Sparticus alive because he fears what Sparticus would reveal.
A blatantly amateur tactic if I ever saw one.
I wrote:Also, I had some stuff to say for some earlier discussion, before the spartacus wagon here, but I'm at work and don't have my notes. I'll elaborate later, assuming there's no lynch before I'm done working.
-Tails
To flesh this post out as promised, I'd like to say what I observed, upon further review, wasn't as widespread as I had initially believed. But I will put it out there.
If we assume that Saf was roleblocked or busdriven, or otherwise negated from protecting Harry, it seems to me that in order for mafia to pull off the "frame," they wouldn't press the "Saf is fakeclaiming" issue. That is, to best capitalize their kill of Harry and also get Saf lynched, they wouldn't have been hopping on the Saf BW because it would throw suspicion on them later in the game. However, there were only a handful of people that fit this profile, and the argument is extremely wifom.
So to sum up, I've got nothing yet. I will FOS strike for some minor manipulation:
Strike wrote:I don't want to read too much into this as iwe were wrong in regards to the green argument yesterday but this looks like another slip from Safari.
because everything is always that straightforward. What it does is cast doubt on Safari's role.
He never outright says that Saf is fakeclaiming; he merely mentions it as a possibility after the day scene in a post of scenarios. However, he gently puts the idea out there that Saf's claim isn't that strong while going with what others said.
-Tails
