Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia END Mafia win

[Tobikera]

Not paying attention (Watcher)

N1: Tobikera
N2: strike wolf
N3: ZaBeast

You appear to be somewhat of an oxymoron. Can we assume that you got no results from your three nights of watching. I know you didn't observe anything for me...I was safely asleep in western Panama, figuratively speaking.

[Tobikera]

I would also note that Mafia Watchers exist, which can be an effective power role for scum.

[dakky21]

It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying. And Ragian is covering his ass.

[Pikanchion]

I would also note that Mafia Watchers exist, which can be an effective power role for scum.

So you are proposing a game where the Mafia team has a Watcher, while the rest of the game is comprised a Lyncher (who has no action for the Watcher to observe), a Hider, and the rest as VTs?

It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying. And Ragian is covering his ass.

For one thing, that is completely incorrect mathematically, but even if it were correct: how is this at all relevant if I am not claiming Cop? -If I watch somebody one night and they die the following night what does that say about me? Absolutely nothing.

The actual chance of me having performed the actions I claim and not seeing anything is as follows (assuming two Mafia, one of which performing no action):
— N1: jfm10 targeted me so I couldn't see jfm10 no matter my target. The chance of my target being the target of the NK N1 is 1/8 if my target is Town (which itself is a 8/10 chance), or 0 otherwise.
— N2: jfm10 didn't target me, so if I chose my target randomly the chance of me targeting jfm10's target is 1/7. The chance of my target being the target of the NK that night is 1/6 if my target is Town (6/8), 0 otherwise.
— N3: jfm10's target is unknown, so if I was not the target (a 6/7 chance) the chance of me choosing jfm10's target is 1/7, the chance otherwise is 0. The chance of my target being Mafia's target is 1/6 if my target is Town (6/8), 0 otherwise.

So the chance of me doing as claimed with the results claimed is (1 - [1/8 * 8/10]) * (1 - [1/7 + 1/6 * 6/8]) * (1 - [1/7 * 6/7 + 1/6 * 6/8]) = 49.59%

[Ragian]

It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying. And Ragian is covering his ass.

Whose arse am I covering and how?

[dakky21]

For one thing, that is completely incorrect mathematically, but even if it were correct: how is this at all relevant if I am not claiming Cop? -If I watch somebody one night and they die the following night what does that say about me? Absolutely nothing.

Exactly, it doesn't say anything about you. But if I'm correct then you're lying and therefore scum.

@Ragian - you're second scum I'm pretty sure and you're covering Pika's arse.

[Pikanchion]

It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying.

For one thing, that is completely incorrect mathematically, but even if it were correct: how is this at all relevant if I am not claiming Cop? -If I watch somebody one night and they die the following night what does that say about me? Absolutely nothing.

Exactly, it doesn't say anything about you. But if I'm correct then you're lying and therefore scum.

So in one post it's proof of me lying which means I am scum, then in the next post it means nothing and proves nothing but I am still scum because I'm definitely lying even though you can't point out where or explain why?

[dakky21]

In both posts you are scum, but I can't explain why Ragian is saying you are town. My vote stays on him though the votes are reset. I'll vote again later.

[dakky21]

On the other hand or however you put it, I'm thinking Ragoo and you are scum... while Tobi and Strike remain silent and especially ZaBeast who said something but nothing disputed my argument (in italics) against Ragian and said it's poor. Pika if you are really town you should really think of combination beast+ragoo. Or Tobi+ragoo. But Ragoo for sure.

[dakky21]

vote ragian

[ZaBeast]

Well, maybe I got your argument wrong dakky. You're voting Ragian because you say you're town and he's voting you so he must be scum. Since no one but you (and the scum team) can know your alignment until you die, you're basically voting him only because he's voting you (his voting history is the same as yours so it can't really be used as an argument on either side). So how is that not an OMGUS?

@Ragian everything can be turned into WIFOM though. Dakky has played the most anti-town so far, but I haven't fixed yet who I'll vote for given we're at LYLO.

[Ragian]

@Ragian - you're second scum I'm pretty sure and you're covering Pika's arse.

It was your use of "his" that was ambiguous. If you don't know why I believe that Pika is town, you should reread the thread. I've mentioned it a bunch of times. I'm actually flabbergasted that you can't remember.

Nice to see you voting me again. At least that gives me clear indication that I'm on the right track. I also like that I'm defo scum and Pika is my partner, unless it's Tobi, unless it's Beast. No room for Strike in that equation?

[dakky21]

Why don't you people read what I write?

I said - Pika claimed watcher and said 3 people who did he watch. All of them are still alive. Chances for that are minimal and his math is wrong. Therefore Pika must be lying who did he watch (if he did watch).
Ragian - Completely skimmed that part about math while saying a multiple times that Pika is town and referring to old posts while not to which one. I reread posts and can't find one except for "being very bold scum to push policy lynch", but that is the only argument I found.

Now. Take this into account - Pika is consistent with what he said in his "if I'm lynched and if I'm cop/doctor/watcher etc." and he said before he watched Tobi and Strike and saw no actions. But even if he did watch them, how do we know that Tobi didn't do anything N1 and Strike N2? Even if we believe that all watched people didn't take any action, we don't know if they did on subsequent nights. So that doesn't clear them or Pika as a Watcher.

And then there is Ragian again who is so sure that "scum wouldn't be so bold" and continues with that approach.

[ZaBeast]

Except your math is wrong. During N1, he didn't have 1/11 chance of selecting someone who didn't die during the rest of the game, because we're 6 left (5 without him) so that would be 5/9 (also there were 10 people left, 9 without him). The rest is wrong as well (for N2, with 9 players left: 5/8; for N3, with 8 players left: 5/7), for a total of about 25% (43% if you include jfm in the count of people alive at the endgame)

Now. Take this into account - Pika is consistent with what he said in his "if I'm lynched and if I'm cop/doctor/watcher etc." and he said before he watched Tobi and Strike and saw no actions. But even if he did watch them, how do we know that Tobi didn't do anything N1 and Strike N2? Even if we believe that all watched people didn't take any action, we don't know if they did on subsequent nights. So that doesn't clear them or Pika as a Watcher.

-You're aware he claimed watcher and not tracker right? He can see who gets targetted, but not who his own targets target, if any.
@pika why target tobi N1? You really expected him to be NKed by the mafia?

Ragian - Completely skimmed that part about math while saying a multiple times that Pika is town and referring to old posts while not to which one. I reread posts and can't find one except for "being very bold scum to push policy lynch", but that is the only argument I found.

Yeah, that's the bulk of his reasonning

So you think Pika is scum because he lied about his role (would be an actual argument if your math wasn't incorrect) and Ragian because he's defending pika. So I assume you think they're partners? Why start with Ragian if your only reason for suspecting him is because you think he's in team with pika? Or do you think he's trying to get town cred by defending someone he would know is town (and then why suspect both pika and ragian?)

[dakky21]

My math is not wrong. Ask a programmer like dgz to calculate the odds/chance to watch one player out of 10 (N1), then one out of 8 and then one out of 7(N2) and then one out of 7(N3). I messed the numbers because 1 out of 11 is actually 11-1=10, 9-1=8, 8-1=7 (that one being Pika himself), but the rest is correct. It's still a chance 1:560 which is 0.18% to watch all three in succession. UNLESS. Pika is scum and he "watched".

[dakky21]

And I messed the numbers again. But still. My math is not wrong. He "guessed" who will be alive D4 and he "watched" exactly those 3 people out of 10 possible.

[ZaBeast]

Alive N1
-pika
-you
-ragian
-strike
-me (mets)
-tobi
-aage
-dgz
-blacky
-chap (jfm)

Alive now
-pika
-you
-ragian
-strike
-me
-tobi

So pika could chose between the top 9 people (anybody alive at that time but him), and 5 of these 9 people are still alive now (6 if you include jfm because he was modkilled during the day). That means he had 5/9 chances of chosing someone N1 who would live to D4. How is that so hard to understand?

[Pikanchion]

Pika claimed watcher and said 3 people who did he watch. All of them are still alive. Chances for that are minimal and his math is wrong. Therefore Pika must be lying who did he watch (if he did watch).

Except the chances aren't minimal (and I proved as muchl), try disproving what I said instead of merely asserting your case.

-You're aware he claimed watcher and not tracker right? He can see who gets targetted, but not who his own targets target, if any.
@pika why target tobi N1? You really expected him to be NKed by the mafia?

I was hoping to bait scum into framing me on the first day/night, by killing those I had targeted.

[dakky21]

How is it hard to understand that Pika's chance to hit scum:
N1 was 1:10
N2 was 1:8
N3 was 1:7

At least Beast you play CC regular games and you know that every dice roll is separate, so what I am saying is ... imagine you have 4 troops on first turn and run through 10, 8 and 7 troops with those 4 in next 3 turns. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

[Pikanchion]

So you're on my side then? lol lrn2maths

[dakky21]

-You're aware he claimed watcher and not tracker right? He can see who gets targetted, but not who his own targets target, if any.

After re reading I think this may be the problem of my math, but again, what is the chance that no one targeted Tobi (small if you ask me), Strike (pretty big if you ask me) and you (in between). Ok, no one targeted them so they might be our scum, but if watcher was scum then he would know that no scum visited those people on those nights.

[Ragian]

Yep, I skimmed the math, and I count myself as lucky given that you guys can't even agree on it. You managed to accuse me of not pointing to specific posts, and then you managed (it seems) to find both my arguments for thinking Pika is town. I have two arguments for thinking Pika is town, and I have one strong argument for thinking Tobi is town. I thought I had reason to think you're town, dakky, but then you killed off any reason to think you're town, and now you're trying to bury the scumhunting in numbers like a politician caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

Now answer beast's questions.

So you think Pika is scum because he lied about his role (would be an actual argument if your math wasn't incorrect) and Ragian because he's defending pika. So I assume you think they're partners? Why start with Ragian if your only reason for suspecting him is because you think he's in team with pika? Or do you think he's trying to get town cred by defending someone he would know is town (and then why suspect both pika and ragian?)

[dakky21]

There you go (answers to Beast questions):

Yes, I already said I assume they're partners. And yes, I think Rag and Pika are good enough team to pull this "bold scum" deal with Ragian getting town cred by vouching for Pika. Why then suspect both of them? You pretty much answered your own question... Because if both are scum, Rage knows Pika isn't town and can say he is, simple as that.

[Ragian]

That makes zero sense. If Pika is scum, I'm not getting town cred for thinking he's town. If Pika is lynched and flips scum, then I'd look like an idiot. He'd have to be lynched and flip town in order for me to gain any town cred.

[strike wolf]

Dakky. Your math is wrong. Like unbelievably wrong. Its not 1 out of whatever number. Its 5 out of 9 first night (Raz is dead, Pika wouldnt watch himself). 5 out of 7 night 2 (sage, Raz and DGZ dead, exclude pika). 5 out of 7 last night (No deaths night 2 or day 3).

So each individual night has >50% chance of him hitting someone who is currently still alive.

Secondly, would it have really mattered if he had claimed to visit DGZ, JFM or Blacky Night 1 or Blacky/JFM N2?