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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby spiesr on Fri Mar 16, 2012 6:08 pm

alt1978 wrote:I apologize for being thin on posting...i actually like the safari case best at this point. Harry should have been hard...very hard to kill. Safari's timing of the claim is suspicious. Harry dying double suspicios. Turning around and finger of suspitioning neb after the case looks three times fishy.
Correct me if my memory is wrong, but didn't Safariguy claim in response to a case that was on him based on him not having/understanding the correct pm color coding? I don't see how that timing can be regarded as scummy. I mean, in that sort of situation you are more or less expected to claim...
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby thehippo8 on Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:26 pm

spiesr wrote:
alt1978 wrote:I apologize for being thin on posting...i actually like the safari case best at this point. Harry should have been hard...very hard to kill. Safari's timing of the claim is suspicious. Harry dying double suspicios. Turning around and finger of suspitioning neb after the case looks three times fishy.
Correct me if my memory is wrong, but didn't Safariguy claim in response to a case that was on him based on him not having/understanding the correct pm color coding? I don't see how that timing can be regarded as scummy. I mean, in that sort of situation you are more or less expected to claim...

Andapart from doing Voldemort's bidding, what do you expect to prove b y such a lynch? I thought we've been through that already. I'm still leaning towards Iron!
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby spiesr on Fri Mar 16, 2012 8:58 pm

thehippo8 wrote:And apart from doing Voldemort's bidding, what do you expect to prove b y such a lynch? I thought we've been through that already. I'm still leaning towards Iron!
Well, if one doesn't believe Safariguy's claim for whatever reason, then it would stand to reason that one would expect to catch a scum by pursuing such a lynch.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby thehippo8 on Fri Mar 16, 2012 9:24 pm

spiesr wrote:
thehippo8 wrote:And apart from doing Voldemort's bidding, what do you expect to prove b y such a lynch? I thought we've been through that already. I'm still leaning towards Iron!
Well, if one doesn't believe Safariguy's claim for whatever reason, then it would stand to reason that one would expect to catch a scum by pursuing such a lynch.

Well, I can't fault that logic!
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby freezie on Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:10 am

(tiny) Vote Count:

Iron Butterfly(1): Thehippo

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby chapcrap on Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:12 am

As no new evidence has come about, it seems to me like safariguy5 is the one to go after. He has seemingly misled us in his role and this has allowed Harry to be killed.

unvote vote saf
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby thehippo8 on Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:07 am

chapcrap wrote:As no new evidence has come about, it seems to me like safariguy5 is the one to go after. He has seemingly misled us in his role and this has allowed Harry to be killed.

unvote vote saf


Are we happy to loose our night protector if you're wrong? If someone had some information that actually shed some light on night 1 and they didn't tell the others would that be an unforgivable situation? Ie, what would we think of someone who sat on some useful information but didn't say anything now when we need to hear it?
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Leehar on Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:56 am

I probably missed it by skimming, but whats saf's character claim again? Would flavour spec help determining if bodyguard was appropriate there?
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby spiesr on Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:38 am

Leehar wrote:I probably missed it by skimming, but whats saf's character claim again? Would flavour spec help determining if bodyguard was appropriate there?
He claimed Molly Weasley. Does this make sense flavor wise? I don't know, sort of I guess.
thehippo8 wrote:
chapcrap wrote:As no new evidence has come about, it seems to me like safariguy5 is the one to go after. He has seemingly misled us in his role and this has allowed Harry to be killed.
Are we happy to loose our night protector if you're wrong? If someone had some information that actually shed some light on night 1 and they didn't tell the others would that be an unforgivable situation? Ie, what would we think of someone who sat on some useful information but didn't say anything now when we need to hear it?
Let's take a look at this and try to quantify what we risk losing if he is town. Unless something weird happened last night we can conclude that the scum most likely have a way to neutralize his protection if they feel the need. Either using a bus-driver to move the protection to somebody else Or, and in my opinion more likely, they have a role-blocker who simply blocked him last night. So, until whatever power the scum used is neutralized they can probably keep preventing safariguy from successfully saving anyone with his power, should they so desire. Also, keep in mind that unless there is an obvious target for the kill like there was last night, he will have to play the guessing game to even possibly find the right person to protect. So what good can he do? Well, if they mafia want/need to stop him they can have to use some of their power to do so. Either they have to use their busdriver to set up kill, thus preventing it from bussing scum members to screw up investigations and whatnot, or they have to use their busdriver to block him, which of course means that the rest of the town will be free from that.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby everywhere116 on Sat Mar 17, 2012 5:17 pm

Well, I think that we can rule out the involvement of a town bus driver for the death of jonty last night. Said bus driver would have come out by now and taken responsibility for his actions and helped us. None has, so it is my belief that he does not exist, or did not cause jonty's death.

What I believe happened is that the Death Eaters saw saf's claim and saw a golden opportunity to frame him. Freezie did say that this game would be hard, so it is likely for the DE's to have a roleblocker or a bus driver, possibly both, and used them in whatever manner they chose to nullify saf's protection and kill jonty, leaving them with a perfect target to go after the next day. Which I am sure they would have capitalized on.

Enter Neb. On his first post on D2, he says this:
Nebuchadnezer PG 33 wrote:Are you effin' kidding me? We have a body guard, presumably a doc, most likely a bus drive...and you all pick a different target? Holy crap!

Who the hell is our claimed body guard again? My vote goes there.

...already broadcasting his intentions to go after safari, despite not naming him. On his next post 2 pages later, he goes through with it:
Nebuchadnezer PG 35 wrote:While Harry was the ultimate quick win player, beyond that, he didn't have much in the way of power. So, we need to get past his loss and move on with the rest of the town here.

The best option to me is to go for our "body guard." He really does no good without knowing the power roles to protect anyway. He'd just be flailing around in the dark protecting on hunches. If he did succeed in protecting anyone, it wouldn't matter anyway, as that gives us no clue as to who he protected, and therefore doesn't clear anyone. I will agree that it is a good mafia claim, as even if a tracker (watcher) targeted him, he could still target Harry and we'd be no wiser to if he was mafia targeting him, mafia busdriver targeting him, or an actual body guard protecting him. Rather fool proof.

Given that he didn't protect Harry last night, I'm willing to test his claim.

VOTE SAFARIGUY


His next post takes the cake, though:

Nebuchadnezer PG 36 wrote:How is it a lazy lynch, if I don't actually believe your claim? In fact, it would be one hell of a tough lynch to get people to vote for you. You seem to have everyone here believing your claim. I'm just not so sure it adds up, and it's a little too convenient for you to keep "missing" protections night after night. Because, here's what will happen: the next townie to claim will hope to be protected at night. Once again, you will fail to protect. We come back the next day and the same thing happens. Why do I say you will fail to protect? Because you failed last night. Whatever you did or did not do, the mafia already have a template as to how to eliminate town. So, again, please tell me how you will magically protect anyone when you couldn't do so last night?

Now, I must consider alternatives...one being, Harry sacrificed himself, per the story. Did he actually find Voldemort last night, and thus "seeled" his own fate of having to "die" first? Possible, but very unlikely, and would be way outside normal mafia roles. There may also be other possibilities, but the most likely, to me right now, is that you made a fake claim, and had a hand in killing jonty.

Neb


Here Neb assumes that saf will fail all of his protections from here on out. Not only is this unfounded and premature, he's trying to make it look like there is enough evidence to believe that saf is lying when conclusive or even persuasive evidence for that does not exist.

Here Neb says that the mafia have a template for circumventing town protective powers. Which they probably do. But why would he state that and then come to the conclusion that saf is lying?

He is right, here: there are a lot of other possibilities. But he does not consider them. Furthermore, he says that the most likely thing that would have happened is that saf lied and killed jonty, when the least likely thing that the DE's would have done if saf was a member would be to kill jonty and cast doubt on saf's claim. But if they wanted to kill two birds with one stone...


Granted, Neb has unvoted, but now he has taken a back seat, cast suspicion on MC and hippo but is waiting for someone else to make a proper case against one of them. I find his arguments against safari to be poor and scummy, and I find his diving after it seemed like no one would support him to be scummy.

Vote Neb
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby spiesr on Sat Mar 17, 2012 6:12 pm

I am going to have to follow everywhere's lead here. His case on Nebuchandezer clicks for me. In particular, upon review I find this particular post to seem pretty scummy.
Nebuchadnezer wrote:While Harry was the ultimate quick win player, beyond that, he didn't have much in the way of power. So, we need to get past his loss and move on with the rest of the town here.

The best option to me is to go for our "body guard." He really does no good without knowing the power roles to protect anyway. He'd just be flailing around in the dark protecting on hunches. If he did succeed in protecting anyone, it wouldn't matter anyway, as that gives us no clue as to who he protected, and therefore doesn't clear anyone. I will agree that it is a good mafia claim, as even if a tracker (watcher) targeted him, he could still target Harry and we'd be no wiser to if he was mafia targeting him, mafia busdriver targeting him, or an actual body guard protecting him. Rather fool proof.
The principal problem I see here now is that he makes several leaps and/or errors in logic and uses these to justify his vote. It seems like he came to his decision that he would go for safariguy and then tried to come up with the logic to support it later. But, when coming up with the justification he did a rather sloppy job. I can definitely see the possibility of him being scum and moving forward with some part of a plan to frame the bodyguard, and then he just seems to have tried to move a little to quickly and fumbled the delivery.
Vote Nebuchadnezer
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby dazza2008 on Sat Mar 17, 2012 6:23 pm

Vote Neb. For the reasons everywhere stated. Seems like a strong case to me.

Seemed he came out after Saf right from the start. Almost like it had been planned from the night.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Mar 17, 2012 11:03 pm

safariguy5 wrote:
Nebuchadnezer wrote:
thehippo8 wrote:@Iron - Your logic doesn't gell with me. You've been absent without comment for a very long time and then what you do say is so obtuse that it couldn't be deemed to help town at all. I have some other ideas, but I want to save those until later but want to see what everyone else thinks of your post first.

@Neb - Again, I can't see the point in loosing a townie. If saf is lying then he'll survive the night. If he's not then he'll get lynched. Seems there are better targets than Saf.

Fastposted by Neb ... but no change in my thoughts.


Why will Saf not survive the night if he's telling the truth? You have to explain that logic to me.

Whether or not I survive the night is up to WIFOM. Mafia could just as well not NK me and then frame me for a lynch. Which is probably what the've done for today.

What exactly do you mean by "missing protections"? How could I miss a protection if I got roleblocked or jonty was busdriven or something? So you don't believe my claim, fine. But realize that you're basically saying that we should lynch the claimed bodyguard because of one night's worth of actions.

How sure are you that I'm scum? Would you be willing to bet your life on it on Day 3 when I get lynched/killed and flip town? Because I'm a town protective role, and losing me would definitely hurt town more than a commuter.

My original line in the sand for Neb. He backs off the pressure soon after that (Page 36).

I feel (as I have already reiterated a couple times) that for me to be voting today would probably cast me in a bad light given my stance to being Day 2. Of course, should someone make a really bad scumslip, that would warrant my vote. Consider my FOS on Neb a de facto vote, and I am perfectly willing to hammer/pressure for the claim should that happen.

Also, nice how alt pops up to post something that's been repeated already. Real helpful.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Leehar on Sun Mar 18, 2012 9:29 am

Since I don't really have anything else to go for, and I've run past my initial mafia enthusiasm ;) I'll just bandwagon and vote Nebuchadnezar
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Mar 18, 2012 10:17 am

Now that we have a nice little bandwagon going heres somthing that bothers me. The only thing Neb is guilty of is his WIFOM argument when confronting Safari. If you read his posts from the beggining they are perfectly reasonable. When confronted with his logic he backs down.

Neb is the only one who has put his ass on the line to create a case against someone. Mafia does not put there asses on the line they let Town do that for them. Now we have people crawling out of the woodwork like Dazza saying "almost like it was planned."

While I do not agree with what Neb said in his argument I do not beleive that makes him mafia. Weather you agree with Neb or not he at least has played like Town. He has stated his conviction of why he beleives someone is Mafia.

We have 5 or 6 mafia , which is perfect to create a blood frenzy on him. Leehar, who has pretty much been invisible, says he is bandwagoning for no real reason and Dazza enters with his super scummy statement.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby safariguy5 on Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:21 pm

It's not that other people have raised concerns about the possibility that I faked my claim, it's just that Neb seems the most adamant that I have to be lying. At least most everyone else concedes that there are several possibilities for why my night action didn't work, but Neb seemed to believe that only one explanation was probable. I'm not going to stand here and say that I deserve the doctor claim treatment, but it's not as if my role is worthless. As of yet, there's no concrete evidence that I'm mafia besides the fact that my night action didn't work. And that is hardly a smoking gun in terms of only having one possible explanation, especially considering how it's only been 1 night.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby chapcrap on Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:55 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:Neb is the only one who has put his ass on the line to create a case against someone.

Who created the case on Neb?

I didn't write up a whole case against saf, but the case is there in front of everyone and everyone knows what it is and I voted for him. Is that putting myself on the line?

It's odd that you're standing up for him in my opinion.

In the case everywhere mentioned, he didn't even bring up the multiple submarining instances and multiple prods required on day 1 either.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Sun Mar 18, 2012 4:09 pm

Hey everybody. I'm a little behind, and I'm gearing up for my practicals and finals this coming week. I apologize, but please don't expect any activity from me until late Wednesday (PST so really late for most of you). After that I'm back in full force.

-Tails
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby dazza2008 on Sun Mar 18, 2012 4:29 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:Now that we have a nice little bandwagon going heres somthing that bothers me. The only thing Neb is guilty of is his WIFOM argument when confronting Safari. If you read his posts from the beggining they are perfectly reasonable. When confronted with his logic he backs down.

Neb is the only one who has put his ass on the line to create a case against someone. Mafia does not put there asses on the line they let Town do that for them. Now we have people crawling out of the woodwork like Dazza saying "almost like it was planned."

While I do not agree with what Neb said in his argument I do not beleive that makes him mafia. Weather you agree with Neb or not he at least has played like Town. He has stated his conviction of why he beleives someone is Mafia.

We have 5 or 6 mafia , which is perfect to create a blood frenzy on him. Leehar, who has pretty much been invisible, says he is bandwagoning for no real reason and Dazza enters with his super scummy statement.


So you don't believe that mafia make plans at night to get someone lynched? :?

Whenever I have been mafia that is exactly what we have tried to do.

So you think mafia will be the guys who are not taking any opinion on anything?
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:24 pm

dazza2008 wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:Now that we have a nice little bandwagon going heres somthing that bothers me. The only thing Neb is guilty of is his WIFOM argument when confronting Safari. If you read his posts from the beggining they are perfectly reasonable. When confronted with his logic he backs down.

Neb is the only one who has put his ass on the line to create a case against someone. Mafia does not put there asses on the line they let Town do that for them. Now we have people crawling out of the woodwork like Dazza saying "almost like it was planned."

While I do not agree with what Neb said in his argument I do not beleive that makes him mafia. Weather you agree with Neb or not he at least has played like Town. He has stated his conviction of why he beleives someone is Mafia.

We have 5 or 6 mafia , which is perfect to create a blood frenzy on him. Leehar, who has pretty much been invisible, says he is bandwagoning for no real reason and Dazza enters with his super scummy statement.


So you don't believe that mafia make plans at night to get someone lynched? :?

Whenever I have been mafia that is exactly what we have tried to do.

So you think mafia will be the guys who are not taking any opinion on anything?


You have added nothing and it is noticable. You add a sentence here and a sentence there parroting everyone else with nothing substantial. I knew my posting would raise hackles.

Tell me Dazza when you say "Almost...as if it was planned" do you mean to say you beleive it was planned or you dont beleive it was planned? You dont offer your opinion one way or the other...you just throw it in there for someone else to pick up and chew on amd run with. Now THAT is scum tactics. Hide in the back and throw out little nuggets to raise doubts for Town when the time is right.

So Mafia said in their meeting..."OK lets block safari...and then one of us will hammer the point home...if they do it forceful enough folks are bound to beleive it and vote to lynch Safari...Town is after all really stupid and wont pick up on it".
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby safariguy5 on Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:38 pm

Well I'm pretty sure it was planned. They had at least 4-5 people convinced I fakeclaimed bodyguard. Dazza has a valid point, never underestimate how mafia may act, even if it borders on WIFOM. If you want to win a game, the team with the plan wins more often than the team without one. This is true in mafia, also true in CC.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby spiesr on Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:47 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:So Mafia said in their meeting..."OK lets block safari...and then one of us will hammer the point home...if they do it forceful enough folks are bound to beleive it and vote to lynch Safari...Town is after all really stupid and wont pick up on it".
FOS Iron Butterfly for strawmanning. You are assuming too much about how the scum would plan things now. Of course the scum wouldn't purposefully plan anything that obtuse. However, planing to attempt to case doubt upon Safariguy by blocking him or whatever is certainly something they could come up with. And then a relatively inexperienced member of their group not managing to have the appropriate subtlety when handling the manner the next day? That is something that I can see happening pretty easily.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Iron Butterfly on Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:03 pm

spiesr wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:So Mafia said in their meeting..."OK lets block safari...and then one of us will hammer the point home...if they do it forceful enough folks are bound to beleive it and vote to lynch Safari...Town is after all really stupid and wont pick up on it".
FOS Iron Butterfly for strawmanning. You are assuming too much about how the scum would plan things now. Of course the scum wouldn't purposefully plan anything that obtuse. However, planing to attempt to case doubt upon Safariguy by blocking him or whatever is certainly something they could come up with. And then a relatively inexperienced member of their group not managing to have the appropriate subtlety when handling the manner the next day? That is something that I can see happening pretty easily.


I was being sarcastic.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby dazza2008 on Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:27 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:
Iron Butterfly wrote:Now that we have a nice little bandwagon going heres somthing that bothers me. The only thing Neb is guilty of is his WIFOM argument when confronting Safari. If you read his posts from the beggining they are perfectly reasonable. When confronted with his logic he backs down.

Neb is the only one who has put his ass on the line to create a case against someone. Mafia does not put there asses on the line they let Town do that for them. Now we have people crawling out of the woodwork like Dazza saying "almost like it was planned."

While I do not agree with what Neb said in his argument I do not beleive that makes him mafia. Weather you agree with Neb or not he at least has played like Town. He has stated his conviction of why he beleives someone is Mafia.

We have 5 or 6 mafia , which is perfect to create a blood frenzy on him. Leehar, who has pretty much been invisible, says he is bandwagoning for no real reason and Dazza enters with his super scummy statement.


So you don't believe that mafia make plans at night to get someone lynched? :?

Whenever I have been mafia that is exactly what we have tried to do.

So you think mafia will be the guys who are not taking any opinion on anything?


You have added nothing and it is noticable. You add a sentence here and a sentence there parroting everyone else with nothing substantial. I knew my posting would raise hackles.

Tell me Dazza when you say "Almost...as if it was planned" do you mean to say you beleive it was planned or you dont beleive it was planned? You dont offer your opinion one way or the other...you just throw it in there for someone else to pick up and chew on amd run with. Now THAT is scum tactics. Hide in the back and throw out little nuggets to raise doubts for Town when the time is right.

So Mafia said in their meeting..."OK lets block safari...and then one of us will hammer the point home...if they do it forceful enough folks are bound to beleive it and vote to lynch Safari...Town is after all really stupid and wont pick up on it".


I think it is clear what I meant when I said that. I think the mafia could have done something to kill jonty with the hope that we would doubt Safari and lynch him. I also do think there is a good chance one of them would come out with that case early on while the rest sit back and watch.

That is why I am suspicious of Neb and why I have voted him.

In what way am I "hiding in the back"? I have been active here and following along. When the discussion was all flavour spec I could not add anything because I have not watched any of the movies or read any of the books.
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Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby alt1978 on Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:55 pm

It's been a busy weekend for me...i apologize for not getting in here more actively. I'll get straight to my thoughts...

I'm not buying the case on Neb...he has (as has been noted sticking his neck out) trying to get put something out there. The speed with which some people jumped on the Neb case is a bit astonishing to me...as I don't see anything worthwhile in everywhere's case to warrant that kind of band-wagon. Safari jumping on...I completely get. If someone were to lead a case against me I would be suspicious of them...but what's going on with some of the other folks jumping on. Dazza jumps on but puts up some evidence or something that doesn't sit right with him...Spieser adds to the case...but when we get to 3 (4 with safari's hammer) Leehar jumps in with this,

Re: Harry potter: The fight for freedom. Day 2. (16/18)

Postby Leehar on Sun Mar 18, 2012 9:29 am
Since I don't really have anything else to go for, and I've run past my initial mafia enthusiasm ;) I'll just bandwagon and vote Nebuchadnezar

In my mind...the case against neb is still minimal at best...this stands out like a sore thumb as someone trying to push a town lynch. I don't really have any evidence against safari...just the unfortunate night one killing of harry. As spieser pointed out (very effectively and informatively) there were a lot of scenarios that could have resulted in that outcome...so I am convinced to drop the FOS on safari. Leehar's skimming and then bandwagoning however is a different matter for me. Jumping in to use flavor, posting nothing of substance day one...and staying just off the submarining side of the ship adds up to enough for me to vote.

Vote Leehar
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