dazza2008 wrote:Also why do you say manipulator? I don't steal votes from anyone else I just have 2.
Most of the claims are difficult to prove so could easily be fakes.
dazza2008 wrote:
jonty125 wrote:Vote manipulators are generally bad, so FOS dazza. Also, I feel stubbs & IB have weak claims was well. But I'll vote vote Stubbs as he has a weak claim and deadline is approaching.
Why are they generally bad?
When I said bad, I meant mafia. True a double voter isn't a vote manipulator but does loosely fit in the category.
Thinking about it, if we assume IB's claim to be true, we could assume: you dazza, thechuck and myself (jonty125) are town, because he would of died if he hid behind anti-town.
Yeah but that could easily be a fake too. I dunno what to do. We have nothing solid to go on but the claims which most could easily be fake. When is the deadline? We need to lynch before then and hope to hell we get it right.
Deadline is this Wednesday. Depending on when I'm on I'll call it around 11 pm EST.
Maxleod wrote:Not strike, he's the only one with a functioning brain.
While I'm not completely convinced by Stubbs claim, I think his claim is more solid than IB's. A few thoughts about that: I) The Beatles could be "bulletproof" as their name is undying (as of now) and they still seem to be most popular band of R&R even these days. II) Of course, Lennon being shot works against them being BP.
IMO, Wolf more so thought about the 1st argument than the 2nd, so if it's a fake claim, I still think it's stronger than IB's.
Neb was roleblocked newguy was roleblocked spiesr claimed roleblocker and claims to have roleblocked newguy nobody has claimed busdriver IB has claimed Hider: Dazza, Jonty are town if this is true. Commander-Doom are masons
So that means there is a mafia roleblocker and a mafia busdriver?
I don't really trust spiesr, especially because he wants to lynch the only role that scum can't kill. But his claim seems to be believable, because newguy has confirmed it.
That means we still need to find 2 fakeclaims, 1 is the roleblocker and 1 is the busdriver.
I think Ghostly or IB would probably be most likely to be lying. Or possibly both. The other option is spiesr/newguy both lying.
I have seen scum governors before. So if we lynch ghostly, he could use his power, but we still won't know if he's town or scum. If we lynch IB, and he flips town, we'll have 2 confirmed town in Dazza and Jonty.
So I guess I'll just
vote IB
Does any of that makes sense? Or am I missing something?
2. jonty – The Beatles, town doctor 5. Ghostly447 – Rolling Stones, town governor 7. Stubbs – Elvis Presley, town bulletproof 8. New guy1 – Pink Floyd, town philosopher 9. Doomyoshi – Art Garfunkel, town mason 10. Commander9 – Paul Simon, town mason 11. Neb – Dire Straits, town watcher 12. Dazza – Eric Clapton, town double voter 13. Iron Butterfly – Les Paul, town hider 14. Spiesr – Jimi Hendrix, town roleblocker
Okay, there’s the list of claims. My thoughts (I’m not commenting on myself, as I’m a little partial):
1. Jonty, doom, commander are pretty solid claims. Jonty was investigated by chuck, and masons are pretty good. 2. Spiesr seems to be townish, as I’m pretty sure there are two roleblockers, and he would be the town one, with a confirmed action last night. 3. governor, bulletproof, philosopher, double voter and hider are easier to fake/can be mafia roles, so Ghostly, Stubbs, Newguy, Dazza and Iron have the least favorable claims. 3a. Of these 5, there are a roleblocker and a busdriver and one other mafia (grunt?). 3b. Of these 5, I feel that governor and hider can be proven at some point…Ghostly can halt a lynch, and Iron can let us know who he’s hiding behind (although, with a busdriver, that does get tricky…). 3c. So, my focus is down to Stubbs, New guy and Dazza.
Based on where we are, I am comfortable with trying one of these three as a lynch.
I am gonna be way for the next few days because of the holidays.
First Comm9 seems to believe that flavor has something to do with roles and name. While Simon and Garfunkel may work you can not say the same for Pete Townsend being a cop, Elvis being bullet proof, Janis Joplin being a body guard or the Band being a Vig to name a few. Anyone who bases their vote on flavor is silly.
Several of us can not prove who we are even if we use our actions.
I had a long post and then realized it was identical to Nebs, which pretty much sums up the game situation.
A question for Newguy, given that this scene seems to indicate that the scum faction has three members why did you use an action to find that out again?
spiesr wrote:A question for Newguy, given that this scene seems to indicate that the scum faction has three members why did you use an action to find that out again?
I did not collect from the scene that there were probably 3 scum members, probably the same as many considering part of the reason I claimed is because people were thinking there were 4 mafia, not 3. In case that didnt make sense, I am saying I think alot of people missed that in the scene, not just me. Before we reach deadline, be it by lynch or by deadline, does anyone have problems with me asking how many people that were on this lynch were scum? The only thing I can see is that if you are right and I am scum, then I know the answer already. Figured I would lay that out there so you all could take it into account, because I didnt think of it when I was asking the question.
As far as lynches, I feel as though stubbs' claim of Bulletproof is viable, and so I am going to leave him. IMO, I would actually prefer to lynch IB, because if he is telling the truth we can rule out more players as scum. The only downside to this is that 1)I dont think there would be momentum to lynch him and we'll end in a NL, and 2)He can rule out more people while we wait to lynch him. Because of these factors, I think we can wait at least till tomorrow to lynch him if so desired and I can take a chance with lynching stubbs. Vote stubbs.
Oopsy, saw IB's vote but didnt take into account that would be 5 plus mine. Ill leave my vote off for if someone has anything else to say before a lynch.
...I will point out, new guy, that you started off saying stubbs claim was viable and that you would leave him, but then still voted him. If anyone wants me to prevent the lynch, I need a majority vote to do so because I want to prove myself town, but I want it to be useful.
ghostly447 wrote:...I will point out, new guy, that you started off saying stubbs claim was viable and that you would leave him, but then still voted him. If anyone wants me to prevent the lynch, I need a majority vote to do so because I want to prove myself town, but I want it to be useful.
Adam
Ahh, I noticed after I posted that I had meshed two thoughts together. I will clarify by saying that I do believe stubbs' claim to be possible, but that to try and gain enough momentum on another case would most likely result in a no lynch, and so though stubbs' claim is viable, I believe he is the best candidate for a lynch.
DoomYoshi wrote:IB is best candidate for lynch since hider is the least useful role.
I disagree, we can use it as a cop.
To see not guilty players. Once he hides behind scum, hes dead. Though that brings up a point that we probably shouldnt lynch hider since he can clear players as he goes and if hes telling the truth, he will eventually kill himself off.
spiesr wrote:Commander, take a look at who claimed what again...
StubbsKVM wrote:I am Elvis Presley, Bulletproof Townie.
jonty125 wrote:The Beatles-Town Doctor
Well, then....
Honestly, this does change quite a bit for me - I could easily see Elvis Presley fitting into a Godfather type of a role or being provided as a "Solid" claim and BP Townie works really well with that... Hmmm, I'd still be leaning towards IB as our lynch, but this may not be a bad lynch either.
StubbsKVM wrote:Let's see
Neb was roleblocked newguy was roleblocked spiesr claimed roleblocker and claims to have roleblocked newguy nobody has claimed busdriver IB has claimed Hider: Dazza, Jonty are town if this is true. Commander-Doom are masons
So that means there is a mafia roleblocker and a mafia busdriver?
I don't really trust spiesr, especially because he wants to lynch the only role that scum can't kill. But his claim seems to be believable, because newguy has confirmed it.
That means we still need to find 2 fakeclaims, 1 is the roleblocker and 1 is the busdriver.
I think Ghostly or IB would probably be most likely to be lying. Or possibly both. The other option is spiesr/newguy both lying.
I have seen scum governors before. So if we lynch ghostly, he could use his power, but we still won't know if he's town or scum. If we lynch IB, and he flips town, we'll have 2 confirmed town in Dazza and Jonty.
So I guess I'll just
vote IB
Does any of that makes sense? Or am I missing something?
I actually PM'd Doom Spiesr as the best lynch for D2 if I got off'ed and I still don't trust him (he's probably the hardest player to read for me in the whole mafia forums), but as of now I'd prefer you and IB over him and most of others. I'm willing to believe Ghostly's claim.
Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. jonty – The Beatles, town doctor 5. Ghostly447 – Rolling Stones, town governor 7. Stubbs – Elvis Presley, town bulletproof 8. New guy1 – Pink Floyd, town philosopher 9. Doomyoshi – Art Garfunkel, town mason 10. Commander9 – Paul Simon, town mason 11. Neb – Dire Straits, town watcher 12. Dazza – Eric Clapton, town double voter 13. Iron Butterfly – Les Paul, town hider 14. Spiesr – Jimi Hendrix, town roleblocker
Okay, there’s the list of claims. My thoughts (I’m not commenting on myself, as I’m a little partial):
1. Jonty, doom, commander are pretty solid claims. Jonty was investigated by chuck, and masons are pretty good. 2. Spiesr seems to be townish, as I’m pretty sure there are two roleblockers, and he would be the town one, with a confirmed action last night. 3. governor, bulletproof, philosopher, double voter and hider are easier to fake/can be mafia roles, so Ghostly, Stubbs, Newguy, Dazza and Iron have the least favorable claims. 3a. Of these 5, there are a roleblocker and a busdriver and one other mafia (grunt?). 3b. Of these 5, I feel that governor and hider can be proven at some point…Ghostly can halt a lynch, and Iron can let us know who he’s hiding behind (although, with a busdriver, that does get tricky…). 3c. So, my focus is down to Stubbs, New guy and Dazza.
Based on where we are, I am comfortable with trying one of these three as a lynch.
Vote STUBBS
I agree with most of your analysis, but here's my list.
People who I'd not lynch unless something major happens: Myself, Doom, Dazza (Double-voter confirmed and mafia is very unlikely), Jonty (fairly confident that he's town), neb (somewhat confirmed since day 2), ghostly (testable and that'd be a pretty balsy claim - most likely town).
[color=#FFFF00]The Yellow Zone: [/color] Spiesr (I honestly can't read him fully and I've suspected that he's the GF at days 1 to 3, but at the same time, he's not quite as scummy as most others in the list).
The Red Zone: newguy (Philo seems like super weak role and in general his claim today may be mafia's attempt to force a no lynch with town trusting them while they win - roleblocked conveniently too), Stubbs (a PERFECT claim for the godfather all around ("King of Rock-and-roll" claim, "BP Townie").
The Twillight Zone: IB has been on my list since day 1 as I still think that was a mistaken overreaction by him - in general I don't think he really contributed that much to town and his claim is by far the weakest IMHO.
[b]So my final thoughts:[/b] My guess is that the mafia is IB, Stubbs and either newguy or Spiesr. I'd lynch in this preference: IB ---> Stubbs ---> Newguy ---> Spiesr >=< everyone else. If I'm right about Stubbs and IB, we should then definitely test out ghostly's claim.
Iron Butterfly wrote:I am gonna be way for the next few days because of the holidays.
First Comm9 seems to believe that flavor has something to do with roles and name. While Simon and Garfunkel may work you can not say the same for Pete Townsend being a cop, Elvis being bullet proof, Janis Joplin being a body guard or the Band being a Vig to name a few. Anyone who bases their vote on flavor is silly.
Several of us can not prove who we are even if we use our actions.
I had a long post and then realized it was identical to Nebs, which pretty much sums up the game situation.
Vote Stubbs
Fair enough - although I do believe there's enough flavour to actually mean something. Elvis being BP definitely makes sense through flavour (or as a Godfather replacemnt) and IMHO Towsend as a cop can also be made sense off. However, all of this is indeed subjectable and I do believe our lynches should be more so based on merit and actions through out the game - and thus my list.
new guy1 wrote:
spiesr wrote:A question for Newguy, given that this scene seems to indicate that the scum faction has three members why did you use an action to find that out again?
I did not collect from the scene that there were probably 3 scum members, probably the same as many considering part of the reason I claimed is because people were thinking there were 4 mafia, not 3. In case that didnt make sense, I am saying I think alot of people missed that in the scene, not just me. Before we reach deadline, be it by lynch or by deadline, does anyone have problems with me asking how many people that were on this lynch were scum? The only thing I can see is that if you are right and I am scum, then I know the answer already. Figured I would lay that out there so you all could take it into account, because I didnt think of it when I was asking the question.
As far as lynches, I feel as though stubbs' claim of Bulletproof is viable, and so I am going to leave him. IMO, I would actually prefer to lynch IB, because if he is telling the truth we can rule out more players as scum. The only downside to this is that 1)I dont think there would be momentum to lynch him and we'll end in a NL, and 2)He can rule out more people while we wait to lynch him. Because of these factors, I think we can wait at least till tomorrow to lynch him if so desired and I can take a chance with lynching stubbs. Vote stubbs.
ghostly447 wrote:...I will point out, new guy, that you started off saying stubbs claim was viable and that you would leave him, but then still voted him. If anyone wants me to prevent the lynch, I need a majority vote to do so because I want to prove myself town, but I want it to be useful.
Adam
Good catches. Anyways, to summarize: IB ---> Stubbs ---> Newguy ---> Spiesr >=< everyone else. My preferable lynch will still be IB, but I'm willing to go with Stubbs (and worst case scenario newguy). For now, my vote stays on IB.
