The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Wolves win

[Votanic]

@Votanic, let me know if you want a deadbeat here instead of me. Excuse me for trying to make this into a game.

Waitaminute? Who needs to use visual aids to try to be funny?
But in any case, Rag, don't overplay your town cred. That died on Night 1.
Now you've come back as an unknown entity. In a role that was important enough to replace rather than just modkill...(Though yes, I do believe in trying to replace any role before modkilling, in order to maintain game balance.)
You have now posted a mega-post which I will try to reply to.
It brings up some good points... and some bad points. Evidently it is you who has been skimming.
Actually I hope you were just skimming as opposed to deliberate obfuscation.

Things you missed:
• LC's strong defense of strike can be found on Page 9. I don't necessarily find it super-scummy myself, but it does raise eyebrows.
• EW has been confirmed town, via confession, ...unless you have a crazy theory about me!?
[b]- St. Votanic the Confessor, Town-savior, Defender of the Faith, He who brought about the fiery demise of the very Devil (AWF) himself, encased in hirsute, lupine flesh![/b] I rest my case on my own Towniness.

Also in this case, I would not just look at the later votes of the Day 1 lynch to find a wolf, considering the way strike just immediately gave the game away. Only DDS and myself voted before strike's surrender, and even DDS could have been wise enough to get his wolfish vote in early.

Speaking of DDS, the two anonymous votes against him remain unexplained, even though they do closely fit the M.O. of the Scandalmonger.
Unless the wolves were given the power of the Scandalmonger (unlikely, and totally unlike in the W.O.M.H. source material) this must have come from Town (or maybe some annoying Third Party). Is the Scandalmonger, another role like the Barkeep, that is a Town role that is prone to screwing Town up?

About Randwagons and Lynching Randomly.
Semi-random lynching is necessary for town. It is one of the things I like least about Mafia games. Just as Risk/CC is mainly a dice game with some strategy on the side... Mafia is mainly a guessing game with some intel on the side (and a tiny bit of BS psychology, that can be faked and flipped beyond all recognition...) One way Town can make it a little less Random, is by lynching bad players (too quiet, too self-indulgent, etc). That is not a perfect strategy either, and should not be adhered to 100%, but it does help to keep some order.

Since Guessing is a huge part of Maia, think of it this way:
Intel/Evidence is much better than Random, but Random is still better that Tunneling just on a Hunch.

Remember Critical Thinking (Including self-criticism) and always work with multiple hypotheses in play.

I also now think we should act plan on Maxleod's plan, but it should not be done today but tomorrow. To do it successfully will require Town to act like a team and trust each other to be good l=palyers. iIm going to start another post on this because I do not want it ot be lost.

[Votanic]

Attention Town
Here is a workable/checkable refinement of maxleod's idea for the Barber to (maybe) kill the Barkeep (or not).

The Barkeep: A role that can't be lynched and can't be wolf-killed is an advantage for either side that has it. It could also be set as a Third Party role... The Barber, Witch, etc are probably the only way he can be killed, unless he wants to be... It would be good to have him confirmed... The Seer needs to check on him, and if he is a wolf the Seer needs to let us know, even if it means blowing the Seer's cover.In fact, if we don't hear from the Seer on this tomorrow, we should (cautiously) presume LC is Town (or that The Seer is 'out to lunch'....)
The odds are in our favor that LC is town, but that is true for each individual player, and 2 or three of those times the odds will be wrong.

So this is what needs to be done:
Tonight:
The Defender(whoever that is) will protect Swang the Butcher from a Wolf Attack
The Seer (whoever that is) will check on the alignment/role of LC the Barkeep
Tomorrow
• If the Seer finds LC is Town, the Seer will say nothing and we will proceed to treat LC as Town (unless other evidence emerges)
• If the Seer finds LC is a Wolf, the Seer will let Town know even if that means blowing his cover (worth it to get a wolf, especially an unlynchable wolf). Then, and only then, Swang will take action and vig LC.
In that case, the following night, the Defender will protect the Seer so he can continue his good work.

This plan isn't 100% fool-proof. For example, what if the wolves kill the Seer or Defender tonight?
However, I think it is a plan that has a good chance of working, if the Seer and Defender are good players.

[Ragian]

Also, if the suggestion box is still open, I'd be up for hearing a confession from Swang. Dangerous role, he doesn't post much, and I have a hard time reading him.

We can't get another confession --both Vot and EW lost their power. Do you mean a claim? I don't know how that would help Town, it would just give the Wolves more info if Swang is Town.

Well, fudge me. I'm must have missed the second confession. I'll go back to rereading D2

[Ragian]

Why did you use the confession on EW?

[Votanic]

Why did you use the confession on EW?

Are you're still skimming? I already explained.
But to summarize, he was consistently describing things poorly and making wild, Sonic-like, unwarranted claims.
He did say he was busy/distracted at one point... I guess that's his reason, but it's a poor excuse.

[Maxleod]

Attention Town

This plan isn't 100% fool-proof. For example, what if the wolves kill the Seer or Defender tonight?
However, I think it is a plan that has a good chance of working, if the Seer and Defender are good players.

And the Seer and/or Defender could be Wolf/Wolves.

My initial plan is better. Worst case scenario we loose two townies, but with Papa Wolf dead we can afford it. And we make sure the wolves don't have two of the most dangerous public power roles (there's the sheriff too), and never will because the bailiff is dead. We'd still keep a huge numerical advantage. And keep in mind that it's the worst case scenario, that still helps us.

Also as I previousely pointed out, the wolves killed the bailiff for a reason; they already have the public PRs, and they don't want to be replaced, so if Loose and Swang turn out to be Town, we'll know where to look tomorrow.

On a side-note, I find Dega oddly silent, having played with him before.

[Votanic]

Attention Town

This plan isn't 100% fool-proof. For example, what if the wolves kill the Seer or Defender tonight?
However, I think it is a plan that has a good chance of working, if the Seer and Defender are good players.

And the Seer and/or Defender could be Wolf/Wolves.

Uh, no they can't.

[Loose Canon]

Max - in the pack that Traf sent out the Wolves are Characters and the Seer and Defender are also Characters.
So it is unlikely that a Wolf can also be a Seer or Defender.
Unless anyone says hold on my own character is a hybrid of different characters I for one am going to assume there is no such hybrid character out there.

Fast posted by Vot

[Extreme Ways]

Attention Town

This plan isn't 100% fool-proof. For example, what if the wolves kill the Seer or Defender tonight?
However, I think it is a plan that has a good chance of working, if the Seer and Defender are good players.

And the Seer and/or Defender could be Wolf/Wolves.

My initial plan is better. Worst case scenario we loose two townies, but with Papa Wolf dead we can afford it. And we make sure the wolves don't have two of the most dangerous public power roles (there's the sheriff too), and never will because the bailiff is dead. We'd still keep a huge numerical advantage. And keep in mind that it's the worst case scenario, that still helps us.

Also as I previousely pointed out, the wolves killed the bailiff for a reason; they already have the public PRs, and they don't want to be replaced, so if Loose and Swang turn out to be Town, we'll know where to look tomorrow.

On a side-note, I find Dega oddly silent, having played with him before.

Or the wolves want to kill off the public PRs, but the vagabonds are not wolves?

[degaston]

On a side-note, I find Dega oddly silent, having played with him before.

I've made 8 posts since joining 3 days ago. Sorry if I don't have anything too valuable to add add this point, but I think calling me "oddly silent" is a bit much. I don't claim to have any great reads at this point. I'm usually better once there's more to analyze.

[Votanic]

On a side-note, I find Dega oddly silent, having played with him before.

I've made 8 posts since joining 3 days ago. Sorry if I don't have anything too valuable to add add this point, but I think calling me "oddly silent" is a bit much. I don't claim to have any great reads at this point. I'm usually better once there's more to analyze.

Dega, What do you think about the modified LC test plan?

[DirtyDishSoap]

That's a silly thing to say when you have these three that have said close to nothing.


Here's mpolo and his whopping one post. All game

"Vote SoN!c"

Ewebasher - 6 posts. All game. I don't even see anything of substance either.

Thor60 - 7 posts. All game. Again, nothing of any substance. It's just some weird "head down, I'm a lost lamb, baaaaaah."

There's way more egregious players, especially mpolo, that would warrant scrutiny than Dega. Wtf man. lol

[Votanic]

That's a silly thing to say when you have these three that have said close to nothing.


Here's mpolo and his whopping one post. All game

"Vote SoN!c"

Ewebasher - 6 posts. All game. I don't even see anything of substance either.

Thor60 - 7 posts. All game. Again, nothing of any substance. It's just some weird "head down, I'm a lost lamb, baaaaaah."

There's way more egregious players, especially mpolo, that would warrant scrutiny than Dega. Wtf man. lol

I'm not knocking Sonic for running a Mafia membership drive to fill this game. How else will normal people be converted?
The only problem, as with any marketing attempt to draw new customers, is you are going to get 'Mafia-resistant' window-shoppers.

...but still, people who don't play Mafia must have some reason to exist. I really believe that.

[Extreme Ways]

Inactivity is usually not an indication of scumminess, just makes them more difficult to read.

[swang918]

Some thoughts

I don't like the me killing loose cannon idea. I don't think defending strike pre-confession was scummy, I hadn't read anything scummy about strike at that point either. And votanic only targeted strike based on the role rather than a player read.

At first, I thought Raglan's death clears the vagabonds because now none of them can move into a public power role. But, now I'm thinking maybe a vagabond wolf might want to kill ragian to avoid a public role? Like a vagabond wolf might not want to risk getting picked to be the Schoolmarm since that's what got the confessor's attention, and the schoolmarm was the only open public role as of N1. So I'm not sure that the vagabonds are any less likely to be scum.

Maybe we can fall back on votanic's strategy of targeting based on roles more so than people. It got us the big hit on strike after all, so why not continue a good thing. The question then would be which role would be most harmful to town if scum? I'm thinking sheriff or lord, so DDS or Devante. We are out of confessions so the next best thing is a bandwagon to force a claim. I'm kinda hesitant to suggest this since my role is also up there in terms of power... but it's pretty much the best idea I got--
Therefore. I'm completely neutral on Devante as player read goes, but based on role Vote Devante

[Votanic]

Some thoughts

I don't like the me killing loose cannon idea. I don't think defending strike pre-confession was scummy, I hadn't read anything scummy about strike at that point either. And votanic only targeted strike based on the role rather than a player read.

At first, I thought Raglan's death clears the vagabonds because now none of them can move into a public power role. But, now I'm thinking maybe a vagabond wolf might want to kill ragian to avoid a public role? Like a vagabond wolf might not want to risk getting picked to be the Schoolmarm since that's what got the confessor's attention, and the schoolmarm was the only open public role as of N1. So I'm not sure that the vagabonds are any less likely to be scum.

Maybe we can fall back on votanic's strategy of targeting based on roles more so than people. It got us the big hit on strike after all, so why not continue a good thing. The question then would be which role would be most harmful to town if scum? I'm thinking sheriff or lord, so DDS or Devante. We are out of confessions so the next best thing is a bandwagon to force a claim. I'm kinda hesitant to suggest this since my role is also up there in terms of power... but it's pretty much the best idea I got--
Therefore. I'm completely neutral on Devante as player read goes, but based on role Vote Devante

The idea now is that you only kill Loose Canon if the Seer determines he is a Wolf... since the Barber being one of the few ways the Barkeep (Loose Canon) can be killed... a near-immortal Townie is fine, an unkillable wolf is not.

[Ragian]

Why did you use the confession on EW?

Are you're still skimming? I already explained.
But to summarize, he was consistently describing things poorly and making wild, Sonic-like, unwarranted claims.
He did say he was busy/distracted at one point... I guess that's his reason, but it's a poor excuse.

Yes, yes, you have learned the word skimming. Well done. Aye, I skim a lot of your posts because loads of your content is irrelevant. Was it because he targeted you in an off-hand comment?

Nice to head from swang.

@DDS, have you played with Max before?

[Votanic]

Was it because he targeted you in an off-hand comment?

You hit the nail on the head there. He was delivering gameplay reads and theories in an 'offhand' manner. A good player avoids making joke reads, at least not after the initial joke phase. He was also repeatedly misstating facts and comparisons.

But seriously, Ragian, don't skim. It's bad for town to miss or misinterpet posts, and then misreport the news and other facts.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Kind of. Lot of his posts... well, they just suck. Then he deadbeated out. If he sticks around, it'd be the first full game.

Why? Should i treat him like Mitch?

[Ragian]

@Vot, I don't skim posts by players that don't have a habit of posting irrelevant speculation. My time is precious.

@DDS, maybe not Mitch per se - I miss him - but at least extremely fanatic in his reads and very gung ho.

[Ewebasher]

Ewebasher - 6 posts. All game. I don't even see anything of substance either.

Will choose to ignore the substance remark but your post count is absolute nonsense... case of mistaken identity or trying to throw me under the bus for some reason?

[Charle]

Speaking of DDS, the two anonymous votes against him remain unexplained, even though they do closely fit the M.O. of the Scandalmonger.
Unless the wolves were given the power of the Scandalmonger (unlikely, and totally unlike in the W.O.M.H. source material) this must have come from Town (or maybe some annoying Third Party). Is the Scandalmonger, another role like the Barkeep, that is a Town role that is prone to screwing Town up?

According to the WOMH Pact we received, on pages 16 and 19 it mentions that the Scandalmonger is definitely a character specific to the village. I don't think the wolves would have been given this power. This means it is a power specific to town, not that it really do much, but to get the full advantage out of it, we might as well use it to get a claim out of DDS to ensure that our sheriff is not a wolf.

Vote DDS

[DirtyDishSoap]

@Vot, I don't skim posts by players that don't have a habit of posting irrelevant speculation. My time is precious.

@DDS, maybe not Mitch per se - I miss him - but at least extremely fanatic in his reads and very gung ho.

So Mitch, glad to clear that debacle up. Bunch of mitches running about now though. Where's Skoffin? Someone! I need sane people here! HALP! THIS A MAD HOUSE

[SoN!c]

Speaking of DDS, the two anonymous votes against him remain unexplained, even though they do closely fit the M.O. of the Scandalmonger.
Unless the wolves were given the power of the Scandalmonger (unlikely, and totally unlike in the W.O.M.H. source material) this must have come from Town (or maybe some annoying Third Party). Is the Scandalmonger, another role like the Barkeep, that is a Town role that is prone to screwing Town up?

According to the WOMH Pact we received, on pages 16 and 19 it mentions that the Scandalmonger is definitely a character specific to the village. I don't think the wolves would have been given this power. This means it is a power specific to town, not that it really do much, but to get the full advantage out of it, we might as well use it to get a claim out of DDS to ensure that our sheriff is not a wolf.

Vote DDS

Yes, according to the rulebook only the scandalmonger (likely townish) can make the mod post this. I think DDS voted me because he thinks im the scandalmonger but im not.

And the dive was scummy but by now a lot more happened that is at least equally scummy?

I also liked DDS view on the Max drive by shooting plan.

And speaking of MAD HOUSE..

I wanna hear Fusi, Ragian, Deg and EW on the following mad house scenario:

Wolves Strike, Vot and 1 or 2 unknown wolfies make up this brilliant plan:

Vot steers the first confession on Strike (he did, his post before confessing Strike had "not the highest priority" remark on everybody. And By sacrificing Strike Vot got instant "confirmed town status".

Then on D2 Wolf Vot would choose whoever the wolves think is the most likely cop to confess (EW)...
.. while the next move in the mastermind plan is getting the seer to come forward (the only one who could unmask Vot) just to kill 3P loose? Loose is also the only player with Wolf immunity..

If Loose is so important Vot should have chosen him to confess?

[Extreme Ways]

my thoughts on that already surfaced, and it's a situation we can solve on day 6 or so if it arises. Votanic is town until it becomes impossible to understand why he is alive.