ASoIaF Mafia Prologue (10/13) - D3: The Bloody Winter Rose

[Minister Masket]

I hid behind minister not because of his ability, but because strike wolf is jaime lannister, who is a 1-shot bp bodyguard, who said he would protect his father.

Actually he said:

My role is two part. I have a protection ability that I can use every night. It's a bodyguard ability but I would survive the first time someone tries to kill my target. I think it's obvious who I will be using this ability on. I also have 1 kill however I cannot use both abilities on the same night. So as long as Tywin is alive, I will be sticking to the first ability.

Consider what Jaime's job was.

[nagerous]

To the other loyalists, now is the time to support your comrade. Losing the first battle could lose you the war.

Tywin's Guesses:
spiesr - Rebel / Stark
jonty - 3rd Party
Neb - Loyalist

nagerous - as said I had him down as a rebel but he's too smart to admit I exposed where his cards lie. I'm now re-thinking you as a trecherous Frey.

You've made some glorious inferences with your colour choices, sir...

Masket, you described Frey as treacherous, care to elaborate on this, or was this just designed as an attack on me

[nagerous]

Neb - Hider doesn't fit with your comments on Stannis, please elaborate else I won't be unvoting yet..

[Foxglove]

I hid behind minister not because of his ability, but because strike wolf is jaime lannister, who is a 1-shot bp bodyguard, who said he would protect his father. There would have to be a lot of fancy work to kill Tywin. And since I believe that only the leaders of each faction know who is on their respective side, it would have been near impossible to coordinate such an attack.
I should be back on a comp by sunday, so I'll look back at those voting me. Namely Jonty and fircoal stick out to me...but it's so hard to make a case from a phone.

This does explain why you hid behind Tywin. But have you explained at all why there is a pressing and short timeline to choose a side? I need to reread the last few pages of posts - perhaps I missed it.

[Minister Masket]

To the other loyalists, now is the time to support your comrade. Losing the first battle could lose you the war.

Tywin's Guesses:
spiesr - Rebel / Stark
jonty - 3rd Party
Neb - Loyalist

nagerous - as said I had him down as a rebel but he's too smart to admit I exposed where his cards lie. I'm now re-thinking you as a trecherous Frey.

You've made some glorious inferences with your colour choices, sir...

Masket, you described Frey as treacherous, care to elaborate on this, or was this just designed as an attack on me

Mainly it was a reference to the Red Wedding. Don't panic.
As for the colour choices....red fits with dragons, blue fits with direwolves. It has nothing to do mafia stereotypes.

[Foxglove]

To the other loyalists, now is the time to support your comrade. Losing the first battle could lose you the war.

Tywin's Guesses:
spiesr - Rebel / Stark
jonty - 3rd Party
Neb - Loyalist

nagerous - as said I had him down as a rebel but he's too smart to admit I exposed where his cards lie. I'm now re-thinking you as a trecherous Frey.

You've made some glorious inferences with your colour choices, sir...

Masket, you described Frey as treacherous, care to elaborate on this, or was this just designed as an attack on me

Mainly it was a reference to the Red Wedding. Don't panic.
As for the colour choices....red fits with dragons, blue fits with direwolves. It has nothing to do mafia stereotypes.

Green is the baratheon color though - hardly 3rd party.

[Foxglove]

To the other loyalists, now is the time to support your comrade. Losing the first battle could lose you the war.

Tywin's Guesses:
spiesr - Rebel / Stark
jonty - 3rd Party
Neb - Loyalist

nagerous - as said I had him down as a rebel but he's too smart to admit I exposed where his cards lie. I'm now re-thinking you as a trecherous Frey.

You've made some glorious inferences with your colour choices, sir...

Masket, you described Frey as treacherous, care to elaborate on this, or was this just designed as an attack on me

Mainly it was a reference to the Red Wedding. Don't panic.
As for the colour choices....red fits with dragons, blue fits with direwolves. It has nothing to do mafia stereotypes.

Green is the baratheon color though - hardly 3rd party.

Orrrrr everything online seems yellow. I could have sworn it was green. Hmph.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Neb - Hider doesn't fit with your comments on Stannis, please elaborate else I won't be unvoting yet..

How would me being a Hider have anything to do with Stannis?

My comments on Stannis are that the scene indicated that he was...what where the words...

"My sire, Stannis Baratheon has been injured and we believe he may be close to death. That's one less enemy that you'll have."

Clearly the scene indicates Stannis is injured and close to death. I believe that someone has attempted a kill on him, and for whatever reason, this kill has been delayed. I also believe that Stannis is part of the Rebels. Thus I deduce that the Rebels will be down one player after tonight, unless help comes to Stannis. However, I'm not sure how Stannis expects to receive any help, when the only person who knows who Stannis is, are Stannis himself, and the person who injured Stannis.

Therefore, after one night of action, I am drawing a conclusion that the Loyalists will be ahead once Stannis finally dies. Now, because of my comments around Stannis being rather anti-Rebel, I can only assume that those voting me are the rebels.


Let’s look at the possible roles again:
Loyalists
Rheagar Targaryen*
Aerys Targaryen*

Rebels
Stannis Baratheon*
Jon Arryn*
Hoster Tully*
Ned Stark*

Third party
Tywin Lannister*
Jaime Lannister*
Walder Frey*

*Known by claim or in the moderators narration. This leaves only 4 other roles available. I still stand by my original list.

1. Rheagar Targaryen
2. Robert Baratheon
3. King Aerys II
4. Eddard Stark
5. Jon Arryn
6. Jaime Lannister
7. Mace Tyrell
8. Jon Connington
9. Hoster Tully
10. Grand Master Pycelle
11. Varys
12. Tywin Lannister
13. Some other minor house (Frey, Greyjoy)

(I could see only one character of the small council, so maybe Frey and Greyjoy are both in.)

I see the blue as "rebellion", red as "loyalists", green as "will choose" and orange as "survivor."

Looking at player posts, I would say Spiesr is a Rebel for this:

More important right now is the question your alignment. With the fairly obvious Pro-Targaryen sentiments in your post I wonder why you haven't been thrown over the coals already. I suppose that nearly half of the people active sense then being Lannisters might have something to do with it. Presumably the rest are simply too afraid to be the first to make a move. Well enough of that Vote Nebuchadnezer and get this rebellion moving. The dice are cast let the game begin.

Nagerous then supports Spiesr, so he’s most likely Rebel as well.

I would like to note this, from the Mod’s narration.

The knights, dragons and kings were placed on the cyvasse board and as soon as the first figure fell, there would be a landslide.

I may be thinking that there are quite a few players that can choose sides yet…but interesting that a reference is made to a landslide once the first person falls. I do have to pick a side tonight. I would really like to make sure that the side I pick also gets the other “undecided” players to join in…I am in quite the situation. Also, my questions to the mod about my Hider action has not been answered yet. So, I don't know what happens when I pick a side and then Hide behind someone who is on the other side.

Now…where to go from here? I still don’t see the voting lynching anyone today. I would really like another claim, though. Therefore, I will vote Fircoal, as he is the only one with votes out there. I would stress that I do not want a Fircoal lynch...just a claim.

[jonty125]

I ain't joining the Fircoal wagon, his is only crime (that has been presented) is not trusting MM, which is understandable. I'm tempted to vote Neb again for BW'ing, but he's already claimed, and I'm not sure if I want him lynched over BW'ing.

[The Weird One]

I think it's less bandwagoning and more blatantly fishing for claims. Though that's just about as bad, in my book.

[Iron Butterfly]

Lets be honest here...it takes 8 to lynch so no one needs to fear any bandwagon until everyone is on the same page and that is not going to happen today. In fact my biggest fear is that without a deadline and lynch all but impossible that the game will go stale.

I have my vote on neb because of his role not because I belong to one faction or another. Why give him the chance to gain power and to perhaps make enemies grow stronger?

[safariguy5]

Lets be honest here...it takes 8 to lynch so no one needs to fear any bandwagon until everyone is on the same page and that is not going to happen today. In fact my biggest fear is that without a deadline and lynch all but impossible that the game will go stale.

I have my vote on neb because of his role not because I belong to one faction or another. Why give him the chance to gain power and to perhaps make enemies grow stronger?

Wait, if you don't belong to one faction or another, then why would you care which side he picks? Unless you have a WC that's faction related, I think it's premature to assume he's going to be on an enemy side.

[The Weird One]

I have my vote on neb because of his role not because I belong to one faction or another.

That sounds downright Lyncher-esque.

[spiesr]

I think Iron Butterfly was saying that his vote on Neb is independent of the Loyalist/Rebel divide in the sense that both sides would have the same relation to Neb, not the he (IB) is independent from those sides himself.

[Commander9]

Vote count:

Neb (4) - Spiesr, nagerous, Butterfly, Fircoal
Fircoal (2) - Minister, neb

Atm no deadline. With 13 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

[Iron Butterfly]

I think Iron Butterfly was saying that his vote on Neb is independent of the Loyalist/Rebel divide in the sense that both sides would have the same relation to Neb, not the he (IB) is independent from those sides himself.

Exactly. I'm sorry if I did not make that clear.

[Minister Masket]

I ain't joining the Fircoal wagon, his is only crime (that has been presented) is not trusting MM, which is understandable.

u wot m8

Actually Fircoal pressed to lynch me both before and after I claimed, which goes far beyond "not trusting" in my book. We have neb's information, now would be an ideal time to see what Fircoal knows and why he's hostile.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Lets be honest here...it takes 8 to lynch so no one needs to fear any bandwagon until everyone is on the same page and that is not going to happen today. In fact my biggest fear is that without a deadline and lynch all but impossible that the game will go stale.

I have my vote on neb because of his role not because I belong to one faction or another. Why give him the chance to gain power and to perhaps make enemies grow stronger?

This makes no sense. How will I gain power by staying alive? I'm a Hider! Plain and simple. Hiders don't gain power as the game goes on. In fact, my chances of dying go up the longer I stay alive. Also, the only way I make enemies stronger, is if I join a side that you are not on. FOS Iron Butterfly for a false accusation. But at least I can now conclude that you are on the Rebel side. Thank you.

Now, I've heard back on my hiding abilities. I can hide behind anyone, except a few chosen people...which are not known to me. However, if I had to guess, I would say once I choose a side, I limit my options...but that's all guesswork. At least I know one person it's safe to hide behind...

[jonty125]

I ain't joining the Fircoal wagon, his is only crime (that has been presented) is not trusting MM, which is understandable.

u wot m8

Actually Fircoal pressed to lynch me both before and after I claimed, which goes far beyond "not trusting" in my book. We have neb's information, now would be an ideal time to see what Fircoal knows and why he's hostile.

I ain't Fircoal, so I'm not going to answer for him, but in my view, your vote on him is OMGUS, as you're trying to protect you & your faction.

[Minister Masket]

I ain't joining the Fircoal wagon, his is only crime (that has been presented) is not trusting MM, which is understandable.

u wot m8

Actually Fircoal pressed to lynch me both before and after I claimed, which goes far beyond "not trusting" in my book. We have neb's information, now would be an ideal time to see what Fircoal knows and why he's hostile.

I ain't Fircoal, so I'm not going to answer for him, but in my view, your vote on him is OMGUS, as you're trying to protect you & your faction.

[strike wolf]

I really don't care for either wagon right now. Fircoal just isn't going to happen and I believe Neb's claim.

[Fircoal]

I ain't joining the Fircoal wagon, his is only crime (that has been presented) is not trusting MM, which is understandable.

u wot m8

Actually Fircoal pressed to lynch me both before and after I claimed, which goes far beyond "not trusting" in my book. We have neb's information, now would be an ideal time to see what Fircoal knows and why he's hostile.

If you think that going after someone who you don't trust is abnormal then you have another thing coming. I don't trust your claim and your actions, it's simple. Personally I think either you or Neb is lying. I really don't think that Commander would put in 3 side picking roles in basically a faction game. There's so much power there.

[safariguy5]

I see what you mean Fir, but given the lack of a second kill last night, I don't really think we have a SKer and this is too small a game for cult. Unless Neb thinks his faction is weak or likely to draw lynch votes, I can't see a reason for him to be faking either faction or role right now.

[Commander9]

A tentative deadline set for Sunday, November 10th.

[Nebuchadnezer]

I see what you mean Fir, but given the lack of a second kill last night, I don't really think we have a SKer and this is too small a game for cult. Unless Neb thinks his faction is weak or likely to draw lynch votes, I can't see a reason for him to be faking either faction or role right now.

We are not even sure there was a first kill are we? The scene indicates something happened, but there was definitely no kill.

I really don't think that Commander would put in 3 side picking roles in basically a faction game. There's so much power there.

I like how Fircoal uses the "if I were the mod..." argument to make a case. Faulty logic anytime this is used. All claims so far make sense from a character, role and faction stand point. For you to throw doubt on the claims based on a "the mod wouldn't put 3 side picking roles in...a game" is misleading at best. My vote stays on Fircoal...