The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow Wolves win

[SoN!c]

I will only be able to comment tomorrow, have lots of family here for my birthday.

Sorry to be quiet, but please Votanic, let's give it a few days before the confession.

Enjoy your birthdayparty Charle! Spending it with lots of family is the greatest present one can have!
That and a good health. Cheers to you Charle!

[Maxleod]

My readings so far: Son!c and Loose sound scummy AF. Everything they say is scummy.

I'll wait for the result of Vot's investigation.

A few things on the top of my mind:

The wolves didn't target Vot or EW.
Instead the bailiff, Rags, was NK'd, and wasn't replaced.
Could it mean that none of the vagabonds are Scum?

[Devante]

The Lord has awoken from his slumber behind the bar as his lordly wife would not let him back into his manor. Must have been some poison in them barkeeps drinks for this Lord has a frightful headache for which he cannot understand any reason for other than of course being poisoned by the barkeeps ale. I shall need to rest my head for a few before I catch up on this days events. Likely in the shade as the sun seems to be brighter than usual how odd.

The Lord does wish this Charle fellow a great name day celebrated, however cautions against the potent barkeeps ale if consumed

[fusibaseball]

Sorry in advance for the long post but this is a full brain dump of my opinions as they currently stand through Day 2:

I've been loosely reading and following the thread and there is A LOT of info to process. In general, with everyone having 2 roles, there is information overload in this game, especially for the new players (Thor, mpolo, and Parked). If this was my first game, I'd be totally overwhelmed right now. So I don't interpret their not posting as scummy at all. We have other new players I haven't seen before who seem to be posting quite a bit (Devante, Ewebasher), so there's evidence that a 1st time player CAN keep up, I just think it's harder in this setup so I don't blame the aforementioned 3.

As far as current reads, this is a rough layout...

Definitely Town:
1) Vot (obvious)
2) DDS (doesn't make sense to me that a scum player would have 2 votes on himself after Night 1)
3) Yours truly

These players lean town for me through their posts:
4) Ewebasher (reasoning below)
5) Max (good read that Scum targeted Bailiff night 1, essentially relegating us 4 vagabonds to useless public roles and killing 5 birds with 1 stone in the process)
6) Devante
7) Charle

I really like this post from Ewebasher and generally agree with pretty much everything:

The only slightly scummy reads from me are:

EW, sorry you may be town, but as Vot has said we could have finished Day 1 with some planning/barber kill of strike which would only have benefited us but you made the decisive vote very quickly to end the day

Loose, defended strike (but in his defence was before the confession and do we know that scum knew scum before night 1?)

I was in favour of getting confession from the sheriff-elect (whoever that may have been and I was slightly randomly voting DDS as I had absolutely no read on him, Pixar or Son at the time, and still don't to be honest)

I agree that, yes, Town should use Vot's confession ability again today. Clearing a suspicious, active player as definitely Town saves us a lot of time and wasted night abilities, and potentially getting another ping on a 2nd scum player is a huge upside.

So I am in favor of using confession Day 2 on EW or LC.

So that's 7 players above who I'm fairly confident are Town. We have 16 players alive, leaving 9 to address.

The 2 above have the strongest evidence for being non-Town for me and are my best guesses::
EW
9) LC

Of the remaining 7 alive who I haven't mentioned, that'd be the 3 quiet new players (mpolo, Parked, Thor), Sonic, Pixar, Swang, and dega (just started recently after Night 1).

Not sure/neutral:
10, 11, 12) mpolo, Thor, Parked

13) Swang: I played with Swang in our last game together and we were scum buddies together and he was a very capable new player. He had a "Vote Thief" ability in which he got to steal 2 votes from a Townie without their knowledge. So I'm wondering if we have something similar here and that's why DDS has 2 votes. Regardless, I just point that out to say he's a smart guy and certainly capable of deception.

14) Dega: is the strongest player in the game. Love the guy but take everything he posts with 5 grains of salt. He is a vagabond though so I generally trust him as Town a little bit more than the rest of this group after Ragian's death (and that extends to Charle and Parked).

15) Sonic:...I have no idea. I personally just have a harder time than everyone else it seems pinning Sonic as scum with how voluminous his posts and thoughts are. To say THAT much and be scum just seems really hard (but who knows, maybe he's a mastermind who's got me duped).

16) Pixar...I just sort of still feel bad after everyone hounded him relentlessly the first couple games we played so I still want to give him a little bit of a break again no idea though, could be scum or not. Time will tell.

**Quick note that I also think no-lynch'ing today is also a solid move for Town, assuming the Confession doesn't ping a 2nd scum. Most people seem to think Town is up 13:3 right now (which I agree with & seems reasonable), which is a healthy enough ratio that just giving everyone a full night to use abilities and gather intel also seems prudent. It seems like there are A LOT of power roles distributed in this setup, so give folks some time to do their thing.***

Thanks all and hope everyone is staying warm through these bitter colds!

[degaston]

14) Dega: is the strongest player in the game. Love the guy but take everything he posts with 5 grains of salt.

I'm not sure whether to feel flattered or insulted by that. When have I ever misled you?

I've gone through the thread fairly quickly, and skimmed the game manual. I've never played with this set of rules, so it may take a little while to get comfortable with it. I don't have any great insights at the moment, so I'll need some time to go through individual posts, but it's still early in the day. It appears that the lynch was kind of rushed into yesterday. I hope we can be a bit more thoughtful today.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Probably upsetty spaghetti about the elementary game.

[SoN!c]

.. this is a full brain dump of my opinions as they currently stand through Day 2

Pretty good reflection of the general feeling i'd say.

I do think it's not 3-13 : True to the rulebook i expect some "swing-state players" (at least 1) as mentioned in page 13 as "the ambiguous players" in here + some 3P with own win motives as described as "the loners" on p. 15 of the rulebook. Perhaps Deg would know what the best balance would be in a 18 player game on the numbers of 3P to expect?

And DDS voting (as sheriff) looked like a panic-vote to me (to hide the Dive move) but perhaps he just voted me thinking im the scandalmonger..well im not. If Vot doubts that he can take me to confession.

Speaking about confession, i think repeating the succes of day 1 confession was based on picking a powervote. I think we should repeat that process. Everything else just seems 3/13 blind bets hitting a wolf at this point.

[Votanic]

Points to ponder...

The wolves didn't target Vot or EW.
Instead the bailiff, Rags, was NK'd, and wasn't replaced.
Could it mean that none of the vagabonds are Scum?

If the Big Bad Wolf power role exists, it would likely be used the first night (In mafia as in life: 'Don't wait for tomorrow, it might not come')
So there might have been a second target (me?) that was somehow saved.

So to answer: no, it's not the case here. No breadcrumbs.. But only for a very simple reason: im just a town villager. Otherwise i probably would have done so by now.

Hiding your secret abilities behind a a vanilla veil is a classic Mafia play.... and is by no means a scum-tell..
...but I wonder if there are any completely Vanilla Town roles in this game? WOMH has enough roles that everybody could have received some special role.

Speaking about confession, i think repeating the succes of day 1 confession was based on picking a powervote. I think we should repeat that process. Everything else just seems 3/13 blind bets hitting a wolf at this point.

Getting a known powerful role to confess is a valid strategy, and might be worth repeating. Though of course, there are now other dynamics to consider as well.

Definitely Town:
1) Vot (obvious)
2) DDS (doesn't make sense to me that a scum player would have 2 votes on himself after Night 1)
3) Yours truly

I'm surprised in your vote of complete confidence in DDS (Unless you know something I don't?...)
The Scandal Monger (?) situation is odd, but in the card game it is just a broadcast rumor based only on that player's suspicion... However, unless the wolves have a second secret power (strike did not), the Scandal Monger is Town (or Third Party...) In the card game, a rumor can be broadcast every night, so we might get more of these...
(Also, I'm not sure that fusi is Town either, though overall he appears very 'townish'.)


Last Post I reviewed the players, this time I'll list and analyze the possible roles for WOMH.
Huge Caveat: I don't know which roles have been included in our game, nor how they might have been modified...

Werewolves (See also White Wolf, Wolf-child, and Wolf-hound)
Simple Werewolves - in WOMH they collectively choose a kill each night, presumably their power is much the same here.
Big Bad Wolf - in WOMH can kill a second time each night until a werewolf is killed. This seems too powerful for our game, if he is included I would imagine he would be able to use this extra power once. (IDEA: Could a wolf Bonesetter, possibly have renewed a special wolf ability? Maybe not...)
Accursed Wolf-father - In WOMH he can do make a villager a werewolf only once, presumably that would be the same here. Thank God, we won't have to find out.

Villagers (In WOMH, the Sheriff is a Villager, but here I've listed him with the Public Roles)
Simple Villager= a Vanilla Townie. Entirely possible, but I'm not sure if anymody is completely Vanilla in this game.
Villager-Villager = a Confirmed Vanilla Townie. Nobody has been mod-confirmed as such yet, so this is doubtful.
Seer - Basically the equivalent of a Mafia Cop (knows alignment only) or Detective (knows specific role). A very likely role.
Cupid - At the beginning of the game, Cupid links two players fates together. The live and die together, and act somewhat like a two-person Third Party.
The whole scenario is somewhat doubtful in our game, but certainly possible.
Witch - Once pergam cna raise the a werewolf-killed dead and once per game can perform a vigilante-style night kill. There a lot of ways this role could be modified. It seem somewhat likely that this role exists, though perhaps quite different form the card game version. Could even be split into two roles a 'white witch' and a 'black witch'...
Hunter - At the time of his own death, gets to kill a player of his choosing. A possible role, perhaps in a modified or limited form.
Young Girl In the card game, this is somewhatlike the detective role, but with the added possibility that the little Girl could be caught by the wolves... There are many ways to modify and play this, so perhaps some form of the Little Girl is in our game...
Defender - Basically the equivalent of a Mafia Doctor, with all sorts of possible modifications. A very likely role.
Elder - Has one free save from being killed by the wolves. They have to try to kill him twice. He can die immediately from other means such as lynching or vigging. If he does die the town loses all their powers for the rest of the game!! A role having a one-kill immunity is likely in our game, but the part about everyone losing their powers is very unlikely, though maybe a weaker modified form of that could exist.
Scapegoat - If there is a tie, the scapegoat dies instead of the intended lynchee... I doubt this role would occur as itis in the card game, but perhaps a modified form could exist.
Village Idiot - If about to be lynched, the Idiot gets his Towniness mod-confirmed. The Villagers don't get to lynch anyone else that day, and the Idiot can no longer vote. A role like this is possible, perhaps somewhat modified. Of course, it is also a role that any desperate lynchees could try to bluff about...
2 Sisters Two Townies get to talk and plan together at Night. Actually quite a powerful set of roles if played well... Perhaps too powerful for our game...
3 Brothers Three Townies get to talk and plan together at Night. Like the above but even more powerful...
Fox - Sort-of a blurry form of detection. The fox picks three players and the mod will only tell him if there is a wolf or not in that group. This role might be possible, perhaps as a once-per-game power.
Bear tamer - Another detection role. It would have to be modified quite a bit to work in our game... but somewaht possible.
Stuttering Judge - A Town role that will allo a second day lynching once per game! A very powerful role, if used well, but it is possible in our game.
Knight with the Rusty Sword - If killed by a werewolf, his rusty sword will infect one of the killing wolves, killing that wolf on the following night. This role woud be a serious danger to wolves, if it exists, but it might be possible, perhaps in a modified form.

Ambiguous
Thief - A role that would simply allow a character to choose from several otherwise unchosen roles. It seems doubtful he would be in our game.
Devoted servant - A role that would allow a player to secretly take the role of a player who died... Interesting. It would be difficult to manage but not impossible. Unlikely but maybe...
Actor - A role that would allow a player to have several different power roles each of which he could play for one night. There would be many ways to modify this. An interesting idea and certainly possible...
Wild Child - Interesting. He starts off Town but turns Wolf if his Town role-model is killed... Possible in our game.
Wolf Hound - A player that gets to choose at the start of the game whether he wants ot be Wolf or Town. That would give the player unilateral power to mess up the game balance... so doubtful in our game.

Loners (likely Third Parties...)
Piper - Something like a classic third-party cult role. It is quite doubtful that he would be in our game.
Predjudiced Manipulator - A third party role that has his own personal kill list for his own win. It seems doubtful that he would be in our game.
Angel - A third party roles that wins if he gets himself lynched... In the card game it needs to happen on the first round/day, but maybe not here. I doubt such a role would be included in our game, but maybe.
White Wolf - Interesting a werewolf-hating werewolf, that can kill werewolves. In the card game he can do it every other night... maybe only once here. I seriously doubt he would be included in our game, but maybe.

Others (These require buildings or scenarios in the card game, but not necessarily in our game)
Pyromaniac - We know he existed because he was Ragian's secret role. I find it very interesting that the Bailiff was also the Pyromaniac... If those two roles were separately distributed, then that is a remarkable coincidence.
Scandalmonger - - Good evidence that he exists in our game in a way similar to his role in the card game. PHe posts a rumor and casts two anonymous lynch votes. The question is can he do his once or every night like he can in WOMH?
Gypsy - A power role that can speak to dead, eliminated players. This would be interesting if included, It seems possible.
Town Crier - A role that can announce events, thereby causing them to happen. He is almost like an independent player-mod. It seems doubtful he would be in our game.

Public Roles (I won't go over these again, because 1) they are already public, and 2) this post is already huge)
Vagabonds
Farmers
Lord
Confessor
Bonesetter
Barkeep
Barber
School Marm
Bailiff
Sheriff (elected, not chosen by the Bailiff)
&
Baker (not included in our game)

[degaston]

Perhaps Deg would know what the best balance would be in a 18 player game on the numbers of 3P to expect?

The rule of thumb that I'm used to is that you have about (3x+1) town players for (x) scum. 3rd-party and power roles can help to balance the game, but they also can make it more "swingy".

So for a typical game with 18 players, you might have 4 scum, 13 town, and 1 3rd-party.
But having a cult-like wolf-father complicates things. If the town mis-lynches and he's successful on the first night and the wolves have a successful kill, then on D2 you'd have 5 scum, 11 town, and 1 3p, which would be a huge advantage for scum.
This makes me think that it's more likely there we started with only 3 wolves, with the assumption that there would be 4 on D2. And I suspect there's a BBW and a 3p among us as well.

But Law could have done whatever he wanted, so I don't think it's useful to spend a lot of time speculating about the setup.

[DirtyDishSoap]

And I suspect there's a BBW and a 3p among us as well.

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[DirtyDishSoap]

EBWOP

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[SoN!c]

Take it we're already getting these "vote no lynch" since it's day 1 and we have no idea about anything really at this point right? I expect that's normal on the first day till more info is gathered or introduced from players. If so I'll follow suit

Its not set in stone. Different players have different beliefs in the matter. I personally believe that we should never go into Day 1 with the conclusion that we're going to no lynch because it takes pressure off any potential scum as Day 1 suspicions have a habit of disappearing D2.

I have been thinking more and more over the players.

Most of you have not really made an impact on me so far.

DDS: I am a little bit wary about his hesitancy to be investigated but the more I look at his play in comparison to The Tick Mafia where he was an anti-town role, he seems more assertive so far in this game. Voting No Lynch is also pretty standard play from him and being hesitant to use powers unnecessarily does seem to also fit that pattern. So ultimately I am leaning town. Still a meanie for voting me.

EW: His plan to investigate the potential sheriff before ultimately deciding is interesting. I was initially for it but I think DDS's reservations have mostly won me over to not using it yet. Some have cautioned that he might be trying to misdirect the investigation onto a townie to save a wolf from potential investigation. It seems possible but ultimately speculative. Neutral read but worth keeping an eye on.

Son!c: Outside of his conjecture about which roles line up with which secret roles, he's been on the tame side for Son!c so far. Either he's learning to be a little less in everyone's face about his theories or maybe this is how he plays as scum. Still active but trying to be less aggressive. That said, this is even more speculative than the EW investigation thought. Neutralish reading and Also a meanie for voting me.

Vot: Very active. Seems engaged both in reading people and figuring out the game. Leaning town.

Ewebasher: Perhaps it's just his name giving me misgivings but he seems to be more following than engaged. Could just be a newer player defaulting to backing more experienced players. Slight scummy read.

Strike: Pro-town hero unfairly blamed for his name.

Ultimately, this all brings me to Ragian who so far has basically just posted mostly fluff and one post where he kind of accuses DDS but puts little weight behind it. He really hasn't said much more than people who have only posted a couple times but he's used more posts to do it. Somewhat scummy vibe.

This is Strike the AFW talking here. Strike saw the DDS dive alright. He would have ignored it if DDS was wolfie. He also calls Ragian and Ewebasher scummy here so that are very good points for Ewe not being a wolf.

Now Deg could be right, only 3 wolves in play. I assumed 4 based on the original game that has 4 wolves for 18 players. But i overlooked the fact that those are 4 common wolves...so with the AFW and BBW in here 4 wolves would have been overpowered?

It means we are looking for a duo now instead of a threesome?

Also his comment

"I personally believe that we should never go into Day 1 with the conclusion that we're going to no lynch because it takes pressure off any potential scum as Day 1 suspicions have a habit of disappearing D2."

is very true and also very well played saying this as the AFW

And because its true we should do the same thing on D2. Not going into Day 2 with the conclusion that we're going into no lynch just to keep the pressure up.

[Charle]

Thanks for the birthday wishes, I had a great time

I am still battling on the fact that Loose was defending Strike on D1. The problem is that we cannot vote for Loose, he only loose his immunity once the person he voted for gets eliminated, therefore IMHO he votes early in the day for someone who he thinks will not get eliminated and if he is a wolf, he obviously knows that that person is town. I think Loose is wolf, but for now we can do nothing about it.

With Ragian gone, we have one confession left so we should make good use of that. Thereafter I guess Votanic will be safe from the wolves as his role will be depleted. Do I have this right?

I do not agree with fusiball, I would have put DDS on the scummy list as well, he was very scared that Votanic would get a confession out of thim on D1 and could never proof his innocence after that. Maybe a confession from our Sheriff who has 2 votes is not a bad idea? Or else, if you are really town, what about a Claim then?

[Extreme Ways]

The only slightly scummy reads from me are:

EW, sorry you may be town, but as Vot has said we could have finished Day 1 with some planning/barber kill of strike which would only have benefited us but you made the decisive vote very quickly to end the day

Loose, defended strike (but in his defence was before the confession and do we know that scum knew scum before night 1?)

I was in favour of getting confession from the sheriff-elect (whoever that may have been and I was slightly randomly voting DDS as I had absolutely no read on him, Pixar or Son at the time, and still don't to be honest)

Think it's already like 10 votes to strike 1 too many.

The Confessor has heard an atrocius confession - The schoolmarm has been a wolf all this time, and not any wolf but the original wolf. he gatther the village quickly and the villagers lynched Strike Wolf.



Allegiance - Werewolves

You are the Accursed Wolf Father.
The First wolf in our lands.


D1 is over. No one can post on the forum till D2, please submit me your night actions asap

Scum me all you want for hammering instead of allowing discussion (when any other wolf also could have done so, or strike himself), but also scum the others then. Apparently I was late to the party, too. When I voted, I didnt even know we had swang with a razor and imo an extra night kill. I usually find those tools to be more useful to use on people you have reads on, rather than relying on village discourse. I have more faith in swang reaching good target to kill (100% town) than town to read a good kill (~80%? town)

But now that swang is outed, he should just use his power next night on someone he finds suspicious before he kicks the bucket I guess.

[Extreme Ways]

also posting this before others do:

yeah I said I found fusi suspicious due to klack of activity and now I was doing the same. I was away for two weekends to spend time with my long distance partner, just arrived home again yesterday evening. Unofrtunately couldnt stay longer but I had my priorities.

[SoN!c]

also posting this before others do:

yeah I said I found fusi suspicious due to klack of activity and now I was doing the same. I was away for two weekends to spend time with my long distance partner, just arrived home again yesterday evening. Unofrtunately couldnt stay longer but I had my priorities.

Sticking my neck out here but ibelieve you. I also think Ewe's unvote no lynch was counted as a lynch vote on Strike by the mod. We can recount the Strike lynch votes if you think thats important. It would only mean Ragian hammered instead of you.

Now with Deg saying he thinks the balance could be there are just 3 wolves (instead of 4) Ragian could have been right all along saying the fellow wolves are unexperienced. Why did Strike confess for real so fast otherwise?

And if Parked had not been active during the night wouldnt he have been modkilled by now?

Vote Parked

[*Pixar*]

also posting this before others do:

yeah I said I found fusi suspicious due to klack of activity and now I was doing the same. I was away for two weekends to spend time with my long distance partner, just arrived home again yesterday evening. Unofrtunately couldnt stay longer but I had my priorities.

Sticking my neck out here but ibelieve you. I also think Ewe's unvote no lynch was counted as a lynch vote on Strike by the mod. We can recount the Strike lynch votes if you think thats important. It would only mean Ragian hammered instead of you.

Now with Deg saying he thinks the balance could be there are just 3 wolves (instead of 4) Ragian could have been right all along saying the fellow wolves are unexperienced. Why did Strike confess for real so fast otherwise?

And if Parked had not been active during the night wouldnt he have been modkilled by now?

Vote Parked

I agree why has Parked not been replaced? Has been just as inactive as josko was and he got replaced. So even though I believe Loose is wolf I don't think we should waste a confession on him at least for today. For today I don't really see a "great" player we should use votanic's confession on, maybe one of the farmers (including myself). EW gives me town vibes just by repowering Votanic. Devante reads townish to me, can't tell just because he is new to the game and drunk for most of it , could be our town drunk . Votanic reads town, not sure why he would make a fellow wolf confess if he was wolf. Loose reads wolf, just because of how quickly he votes so he won't lose his immunity to get lynched during the day, but not really worth using a confession for. Swang I'm reading neutral, haven't heard much from him. I believe there could be at least 1 wolf in the group of farmers and no one in that group should be trusted including me. Same goes for Vagabonds.

[Extreme Ways]

Honestly never read me town for replenishing vot. Consider that the one in the building is scum, do they really have a choice? They can try to argue that they prefer to save it, but they will almost always just go for it anyway.

My main gripe with the Parked vote is a bit meta-y, but if we killed a wolf already and josko was replaced but parked was not, isnt it more likely that josko was the wolf with town behind so ahead?

[degaston]

EBWOP

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Who's afraid of the BBW?

[degaston]

My main gripe with the Parked vote is a bit meta-y, but if we killed a wolf already and josko was replaced but parked was not, isnt it more likely that josko was the wolf with town behind so ahead?

Nice try trying to redirect suspicion from Parked to me - I'll keep that in mind.

The mod should not be playing favorites with either side, and in this case, Parked did post in the game thread on D1 to say he was busy, while josko hasn't posted in the game thread at all. Doesn't that seem like a more likely reason for replacing josko?

Also, Traf sent a pm to me and a few others asking for backups. I may have been the only one to reply.
If Parked doesn't show up on D2, then he's likely to be mod-killed, so I don't think we should use a confession or lynch on him today.

[degaston]

And if Parked had not been active during the night wouldnt he have been modkilled by now?

Not necessarily, since he did post on D1. Mods prefer not to kill their players if they can avoid it. One silent player isn't going to hurt the game too much at this point.

[Extreme Ways]

My main gripe with the Parked vote is a bit meta-y, but if we killed a wolf already and josko was replaced but parked was not, isnt it more likely that josko was the wolf with town behind so ahead?

Nice try trying to redirect suspicion from Parked to me - I'll keep that in mind.

The mod should not be playing favorites with either side, and in this case, Parked did post in the game thread on D1 to say he was busy, while josko hasn't posted in the game thread at all. Doesn't that seem like a more likely reason for replacing josko?

Also, Traf sent a pm to me and a few others asking for backups. I may have been the only one to reply.
If Parked doesn't show up on D2, then he's likely to be mod-killed, so I don't think we should use a confession or lynch on him today.

Yeah, that does seem more likely. Remind me to never believe Sonic!

[SoN!c]

Remind me to never believe Sonic!

That's your favorite line when YOU look scummy.

So much for trying to pressure Parked to get him in here.

Unvote Parked


So what does Fusi know about DDS, Catey and Catey her moobs?

[Devante]

I agree throwing park randomly into confessor doesn't make sense and is fairly random out of the blue. And Pix this Lord has only been drunk one day so far, but I guess in game days that's a 50% rate so winningggggg. Now to refocus here, I still think we should use the confessor again and reading others posts there is an overall lean on the same two folks. Not sure if we officially vote or note on this but either way:

Vote Loose to go to Confession

[Thor60]

Nice

EBWOP

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Who's afraid of the BBW?