Conquer Club

Posted: **Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:44 am**

Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !

Posted: **Thu Aug 24, 2017 12:50 am**

sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !

http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)

Posted: **Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:47 am**

sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !

No. Nothing in the algorithm for obtaining dice rolls depends on how many troops are on the respective territories.

Posted: **Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:52 am**

From the same link as above: http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

2v3
The first roll is the same as 2v2 since you have 1 attacking die versus 2 or more defending dice

Attacker: one die; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins 55 out of 216 (25.46 %)
Defender wins 161 out of 216 (74.54 %)

3v3
The first roll is the same as 3v2 since you have 2 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice

Attacker: two dice; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins both: 295 out of 1296 (22.76 %)
Defender wins both: 581 out of 1296 (44.83 %)
Both win one: 420 out of 1296 (32.41 %)

4v3
The first roll is the same as 4v2 since you have 3 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice

Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)

As for odds of winning if battled to completion, check out a table like the one at http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/novemb ... index.html
A 4v3 battle (3dice vs 3dice) has a 47.025% chance of success, but that's only if you keep attacking. In reality, you would stop at the first loss because the odds of attacking with 3 or less drops drastically. Sometimes its worth doing a 3v1 or 2v1, or even 2v3 or 2v2, depending on the circumstances.

Posted: **Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:01 am**

sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !

In short, after one tap on a 4v3 you have about a 1/3 chance of killing 2, 1/3 chance of killing 1 and loosing 1, and 1/3 chance of loosing 2. Except the odds are slightly in your favour of killing 2 (ie. 37.17%, not 33.33%)

Cheers,
Yynatago

Posted: **Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:01 am**

In short, after one tap on a 4v3 you have about a 1/3 chance of killing 2, 1/3 chance of killing 1 and loosing 1, and 1/3 chance of loosing 2. Except the odds are slightly in your favour of killing 2 (ie. 37.17%, not 33.33%)

Cheers,
Yynatago[/quote]

So its not surprising that 2/3 of the time you are going to be disappointed by either losing two or being in a 3v2 situation, where the next roll is stacked against you

(haha, says me, the biggest dice bitcher around!)

Conquer Club

4 vs 3 attacks

4 vs 3 attacks

Re: 4 vs 3 attacks

Re: 4 vs 3 attacks

Re: 4 vs 3 attacks

Re: 4 vs 3 attacks

Re: 4 vs 3 attacks