Conquer Club

Can anyone explain how the Luck percentage is calculated?

I am a little curious because if you look at the image below 16 losses for 0 kills in the 3v2 attack column sure looks and feels like shittier fucking dice than 54% unlucky.

Makes me curious what the hell would be required for a -80%.

Given that (from memory) losing 2 troops on each of five consecutive 3v2 is something like 1:250 and this happened to me twice within 10 battles!

The formula for luck is: Actual % killed - Expected % killed.
The expectation on a 3 v 2 roll is that kills would be 54% of the total results.
In your case then, 0% (actual) - 54% (expected) = -54%.
The worst you'll ever get on 3 v 2 rolls is -54%, which will happen every time you have 0 kills.
Similarly, if you look at your 1 v 2 stats in the image, you can tell that the expectation on a 1 v 2 roll is that over time you'd get a kill 26% of the time. 0 - 26% = - 26%.

For your 1 v 1 stats, it is expected that you would only win 42% of the time. however you won 100% of the time.. so 100% - 42% = +58% luck on 1 vs 1.

Swifte wrote:The formula for luck is: Actual % killed - Expected % killed.
The expectation on a 3 v 2 roll is that kills would be 54% of the total results.
In your case then, 0% (actual) - 54% (expected) = -54%.
The worst you'll ever get on 3 v 2 rolls is -54%, which will happen every time you have 0 kills.
Similarly, if you look at your 1 v 2 stats in the image, you can tell that the expectation on a 1 v 2 roll is that over time you'd get a kill 26% of the time. 0 - 26% = - 26%.

For your 1 v 1 stats, it is expected that you would only win 42% of the time. however you won 100% of the time.. so 100% - 42% = +58% luck on 1 vs 1.

Thank you