[CCX] R2: FALL (19) vs TOFU (30) - TOFU Wins - Final 7/19/20

[donche64]

“When you get to he end zone, act like you’ve been there before”

Oh, how the mighty FALL.

We haven’t lost yet, and to be fair TOFU clearly is the “mighty” as the favorite to win.

I'm not sure how many people had us as the favorite. Given how we did last year in CC and how you've done in CL I'd say if we were the favorite we would've been a slight favorite at best and your clan mates in Feudal Epic made it pretty clear you thought of yourselves as favorites. But I really don't care, who is favored or who isn't. There is a monster lurking in the other side of the bracket and neither of us is the favorite to win the tournament.

Thanks !

[IcePack]

“When you get to he end zone, act like you’ve been there before”

Oh, how the mighty FALL.

We haven’t lost yet, and to be fair TOFU clearly is the “mighty” as the favorite to win.

I'm not sure how many people had us as the favorite. Given how we did last year in CC and how you've done in CL I'd say if we were the favorite we would've been a slight favorite at best and your clan mates in Feudal Epic made it pretty clear you thought of yourselves as favorites. But I really don't care, who is favored or who isn't. There is a monster lurking in the other side of the bracket and neither of us is the favorite to win the tournament.

I second this. Of course internally we see ourselves as favorites: to be a top clan you have to believe in yourselves and be at least slightly arrogant, but externally that label rests on past success.

In CC9 we disappointed. All respect to FOED, but we were expected to go through and our other showing isn't something you can use to argue you're still top dog either. This year, we're back to prove ourselves: to show that the label of 'favorite' that some people attribute to us is justified, to show that we haven't fallen (heh) off. I think it's reasonable for outsiders not to consider us favorites in this war, but I hope to convince them that we are favorites in the final, or next year.

I mean, I'd be SHOCKED if you weren't viewed as favorites by most.
You bring up CC9 - Fallen got knocked out Round 3 in a landslide vs LHDD - TOFU got knocked out Round 4 in a fairly close contest with FOED.
TOFU has been #1 ranked forever it seems like, until recently (Sept 2019) and Fallen hasn't been #1 since 2016. TOFU has consistently been ranked higher then FALL probably since you retook the #1 from TOP? Back in 2017? Not sure "slight favorite" is an honest descriptor. I mean, flattered really. But common. It surely would be viewed as an "upset" by the majority of people if Fallen won again.

your clan mates in Feudal Epic made it pretty clear you thought of yourselves as favorites

I'm not sure we are the ones who "clearly thought we were favorites". I believe it was you (rock) who basically said the only reason the competition was even close was "because we've been incredibly lucky". (full quote: 2020-04-28 13:56:00 - rockfist: What about the other dice you guys have had? You guys have been incredibly lucky in a number of games as is evidenced by a close competition.) This implies that without luck, the competition wouldn't be close at all. Clearly you see yourself as THE favorite. Not "slight favorites, if at all". (see also: 2020-05-01 06:20:38 - rockfist: Yup, when you guys have very good dice you are competitive.)
Also, clearly while we did win CL10 and CL11 back to back, you've shared your thoughts on how that impacts our clans status overall as favorites / not favorites:
2020-05-01 07:21:42 - rockfist: CL is necessarily more luck based than CC eight game sets can go either way but generally favor map specialists
2020-05-01 07:22:46 - rockfist: If you win CC twice we can talk, but it will have to be next year I think
Not sure what in that chat makes you think Fallen thought itself as favorites, reading the chat its mostly about odds on our side for specific attacks, not bad mouthing TOFU or other stuff I was expecting when you referenced that game.

None of this to say that I think we're chumps or can't hang with the best clans. In fact I do feel strongly we're a better clan now then previously (time will tell) but again, that doesn't change who is favored to win going into a competition, nor does it change who will actually win it in the end.

[IcePack]

Oh - and Tribal War Ancient Israel has Fallen!

[rockfist]

I think we are going to win every war we fight - I have to. That does not make it so and it does not make it the prevailing opinion of the outside world.

I wasn't the first person to bring up luck in that discussion. I would never have started that discussion, but I can finish it. Given enough games/rolls and a long enough time period luck evens out. Give it a small number of games/rolls it usually doesn't. I'll leave it there if you are good with that.

[IcePack]

I think we are going to win every war we fight - I have to. That does not make it so and it does not make it the prevailing opinion of the outside world.

I wasn't the first person to bring up luck in that discussion. I would never have started that discussion, but I can finish it. Given enough games/rolls and a long enough time period luck evens out. Give it a small number of games/rolls it usually doesn't. I'll leave it there if you are good with that.

I really don't care about dice. Either we win or we lose. The dice along the way are just part of the story that leads there. You and FALL can debate about that until youre blue in the face if you like. Wont bother me one bit, and I certainly won't be contributing to that discussion. I only replied to your response about TOFU being favored with quotes because of what you said and specifically referenced that game, which I went to go read.

[loutil]

While not totally indicative of a players quality, rank certainly matters. FALL has more higher ranked players in this war than TOFU. On that alone, I would put FALL as the betting line favorite. I suspect, when 2 strong clans compete against each other, that dice is the biggest variance and the probable decider of who wins. I am sure there are a few maps that you can outplay us. I am certain there are a few maps that we outplay you. But, the preponderance of outcomes is dice-centric.

[IcePack]

I'm not sure I agree with the rank bit (quality players can easily go medal hunting and not be reflective of their actual abilities) but I certainly would agree with the last half.

[rockfist]

Rank has a weak positive correlation with ability in clan play. I would say past performance in clan events has a much stronger correlation. That's only my opinion though.

[IcePack]

Rank has a weak positive correlation with ability in clan play. I would say past performance in clan events has a much stronger correlation. That's only my opinion though.

Which is why generally speaking, TOFU would be favored here IMO.

In regards to rank:

FALL
Average Score 2,733.5
Score Range 1,286-4,989

TOFU
Average Score 2,747.6
Score Range 1,349-4,140

TOFU has a slightly higher average score, while we have a higher ceiling and lower floor. But again, I'm not sure its super relevant

[rockfist]

If you looked at how we performed in last year's competition, I don't know how you would conclude that. We had no recent successes since then other than winning our opening round match in CC, which we were expected to do. We did not perform much better or worse than most would have picked us to in that match. Fallen on the other hand won CL against some tougher opponents, which although I don't put as much weight on it as CC (again my opinion) surely is of more value than winning a first round CC match against an unranked opponent.

When I look at your performance in last years CC I conclude that you weren't focused on it very much and were focused on CLs, I don't conclude that LHDD is that many games better than you. They caught you at a low point and took advantage.

[IcePack]

If you looked at how we performed in last year's competition, I don't know how you would conclude that. We had no recent successes since then other than winning our opening round match in CC, which we were expected to do. We did not perform much better or worse than most would have picked us to in that match. Fallen on the other hand won CL against some tougher opponents, which although I don't put as much weight on it as CC (again my opinion) surely is of more value than winning a first round CC match against an unranked opponent.

When I look at your performance in last years CC I conclude that you weren't focused on it very much and were focused on CLs, I don't conclude that LHDD is that many games better than you. They caught you at a low point and took advantage.

I left after CL10 win, the LHDD war was the first or second war I wasn't really apart of so not sure what happened there.
Either way, I guess we'll find out here in the next few weeks how this ends

[IcePack]

District of Alaska has Fallen!

[Extreme Ways]

If you looked at how we performed in last year's competition, I don't know how you would conclude that. We had no recent successes since then other than winning our opening round match in CC, which we were expected to do. We did not perform much better or worse than most would have picked us to in that match. Fallen on the other hand won CL against some tougher opponents, which although I don't put as much weight on it as CC (again my opinion) surely is of more value than winning a first round CC match against an unranked opponent.

When I look at your performance in last years CC I conclude that you weren't focused on it very much and were focused on CLs, I don't conclude that LHDD is that many games better than you. They caught you at a low point and took advantage.

I left after CL10 win, the LHDD war was the first or second war I wasn't really apart of so not sure what happened there.
Either way, I guess we'll find out here in the next few weeks how this ends

I'd call that a transition period.

Anyway, I think we can all agree that CL requires more luck than CC. I think we can also agree that both competitions require luck in general: it's too close at the top (however large you choose to define that top) to say that one clan has a large enough skill gap to win with bad dice. Still, this randomness gets less with every round of whereas in CL, you can thrash S&M 8-0 with luck in your homegames and lose 5-3 in awaygames, it will still net you only 2 points despite the game difference. With its map usage limits, it also requires more planning in advance: which strong maps of your clan are weak maps of other clans? Either way, it seems like FALL is prolonging their CL title. You may have lost about as hard as we did last year, but we can't show results like that right now.

Doesn't matter who's the favorite anyway, all that matters is who wins - nobody but the participating clans will remember the plus dice or negative dice.

[iAmCaffeine]

nobody but the participating clans will remember the plus dice or negative dice.

and narutoserigala

[donche64]

If you looked at how we performed in last year's competition, I don't know how you would conclude that. We had no recent successes since then other than winning our opening round match in CC, which we were expected to do. We did not perform much better or worse than most would have picked us to in that match. Fallen on the other hand won CL against some tougher opponents, which although I don't put as much weight on it as CC (again my opinion) surely is of more value than winning a first round CC match against an unranked opponent.

When I look at your performance in last years CC I conclude that you weren't focused on it very much and were focused on CLs, I don't conclude that LHDD is that many games better than you. They caught you at a low point and took advantage.

As I see LHDD mentionned, I take the opportunity to jump in the discussion.

IMO, mainly biased by what I've experienced as an LHDD member, I'd say that the global motivation of the team prevails over the strength of its individuals to reach a specific objective (as long as you have top players within the roster of course), and the strength of your roster in terms of number of players will assure you a minimum of results whatever the competition you are engaged in. I personnaly believe LHDD being at peak, not only because we've been able to win the CC for the first time last year, but also (and mainly) because we ended up 2nd of a CL that we didn't take as seriously as the prevent events. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that we would have won it otherwise nor trying to undermine FALL's success.

The number of strong players you have within your roster will also help you mitigate the "dice factor". We all know those periods where you can't win a single fight. If your roster is strong enough as you can give plenty of people 8 to 10 games, rather than 15 to 20 games to 3 or 4 members, then you are less likely to suffer from it on the duration of a war.

Finally, there are always clans (even within the top 5) that you will find easier to face, for rational reasons or subjective ones (you've already beaten them a couple of times, their home set is close to yours, you would just pretend that it's easy because you're facing S&M and you want to upset josko (works with LHDD and betiko too !)). And that's the reason why we can have endless debate over which clan is the best !

[rockfist]

Upsetting Josko is like upsetting me on steroids. I avoid it.

[GoranZ]

Anyway, I think we can all agree that CL requires more luck than CC.

As this years planner I assure you that luck is not the key factor. Luck is as big factor as in CC.

you can thrash S&M 8-0 with luck in your homegames and lose 5-3 in awaygames

Its not luck when you have high home score with all contenders to the crown(7-1). We have high home score vs LHDD, A^ and S&M and 5-3 in aways with realistic chances for draw.

it seems like FALL is prolonging their CL title

Not really, for some odd reason the last game I'm part of turn into a draw, although it should have been decided by now

[rockfist]

They aren’t going to admit to anything. They are who we thought they were.

[Extreme Ways]

Anyway, I think we can all agree that CL requires more luck than CC.

As this years planner I assure you that luck is not the key factor. Luck is as big factor as in CC.

I think you misunderstood my post, I never said that luck is the key factor. I said that to win either of the two tourrnaments, you need to have both skill and luck and in CL the luck portion is bigger than in CC. Skill is still the most important, otherwise I would have quit a long time ago.

you can thrash S&M 8-0 with luck in your homegames and lose 5-3 in awaygames

Its not luck when you have high home score with all contenders to the crown(7-1). We have high home score vs LHDD, A^ and S&M and 5-3 in aways with realistic chances for draw.
[/quote]
Winning 7-1 is unlucky actually, you only need 5 wins to secure the full points. If you get lucky in your homeset and unlucky in your awayset you will never score 4 points vs a top4 clan, the amount of games is just too low. You need to win 5/8 games for sufficient points, whereas in CC you only need 1/2 +1. Consider CC as a CL minimatch: do you expect to win 15 games (out of 24) in our homeset, and do you expect to win 15 games in your homeset (aka: beating us 30-18 at minimum)? Of course not, but with fewer games the luck factor in individual games becomes more noticeable. Say you have a 55% win percentage on your oppo's set, what is the chance of winning at least 5 games? About 48%[1], and I think that 55% on awaygames is quite realistic and in some cases even generous.

Note: I don't think a CL win is deserved or undeserved: I don't check those games, I am not opinionated on the matter.

[1]: Sum of n=5 to 8, nCr(8,n) * 0.55^8 * 0.45^(8-n)

[IcePack]

Middle Ages has Fallen!

[IcePack]

Poison Rome has Fallen

[Sanguis]

Texan Wars has fallen!

Am I doing it right IP?

[IcePack]

Texan Wars has fallen!

Am I doing it right IP?

Sure, I’ll chalk it up for us 8-11? Sounds good

[Sanguis]

In the future I'll say it has fallen in TOFU's hands, to eliminate confusion!

[Doc_Brown]

You could just say that Texas Wars was an Odd game.