Conquer Club

When planning an attack I calculate how many troops I need to win. The mathematical odds are in favour of the attacker so the defender should lose more then the attacker. Reality doesn't always follow math.

I always figure on losing about the same number as the attacker. Then I add 2 (or 4 if the attacker has a large stack) to allow for a bad roll. Then I add 1 for the region. Plus 3 as a base to attack with.

To attack an army of 1 I want a minimum of 5. I figure on losing just 1. To attack 4 I want to use an army of 10. To attack 20 I would use 28 (or 30 to make it a nice round number).

Does anyone use a different formula to calculate troop deployment?

My most memorable success was when I when I attacked an army of 4 with just 4 (I was desperate). 2 lucky rolls and victory.

Grifter wrote:When planning an attack I calculate how many troops I need to win. The mathematical odds are in favour of the attacker so the defender should lose more then the attacker. Reality doesn't always follow math.

I always figure on losing about the same number as the attacker. Then I add 2 (or 4 if the attacker has a large stack) to allow for a bad roll. Then I add 1 for the region. Plus 3 as a base to attack with.

To attack an army of 1 I want a minimum of 5. I figure on losing just 1. To attack 4 I want to use an army of 10. To attack 20 I would use 28 (or 30 to make it a nice round number).

Does anyone use a different formula to calculate troop deployment?

My most memorable success was when I when I attacked an army of 4 with just 4 (I was desperate). 2 lucky rolls and victory.

yea u are too conservative. simply remember that on average attacker will win. so 4v4 is actually something that you should do pretty often - not only when you are desperate. Obviously doesnt mean u should go around hitting 3v2 or 2v2

Your deploy should depend on how many troops u can spare, not how many it would take to win a certain terrs. There is usually a better place for deploying around the map. So there, no generalized formula.

BUT -- since law of large numbers suggest that attacker wins more on average, you can decrease the gap when you are hitting 15+ armies. winning 15v15 is much likelier than winning 4v4 or 7v7. Infact if you are hitting a stack of 30, you can probably do with just 25-26 armies.

Rec Dice Odds

Enter appropriate defending armies vs attack.

Scott-Land wrote:Rec Dice Odds

Enter appropriate defending armies vs attack.

or. http://www.gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds
or. there's a plugin called assault odds

Thanks for telling me about the Assault Odds plugin. I could have used it on my last game.

This is the formula which I use:

Number of armies + (Number of territories/3) + (Number of fronts from which you are attacking x 3) = The absolute minimum of armies you need to kill the opponent
Advice: If you can add to this number a couple more because if you get a bad dice you may fail, do not even attempt a kill with less armies then this.

I believe I learned that from EmperorOfDaNorth

Ray Rider wrote:This is the formula which I use:

Number of armies + (Number of territories/3) + (Number of fronts from which you are attacking x 3) = The absolute minimum of armies you need to kill the opponent
Advice: If you can add to this number a couple more because if you get a bad dice you may fail, do not even attempt a kill with less armies then this.

I believe I learned that from EmperorOfDaNorth

Mine is similar, but more simplified.

Armies on this front + territories on this front. Repeat for each front. If you have leftovers in your deployment spread between all fronts, with larger piles requiring less because of attacker's advantage.

One thought on calculating odds in esc for a takeout. If you have several mid odds attacks (75% for instance), the likelihood of them all succeeding is A*B*C, so 3 75% attacks actually have about a 42% chance of succeeding. As a result, for a takeout situation in escalating it's important to improve those individual attack odds to around 90%. That means 8 v 3, 12 v6, etc.