Debriefing of Game 10476657 (With Photos)

[kierkegaard_2]

Good comments.

This debrief shows the the risk/reward of bonuses.

Playing strategically with hindsight,my weakness to red is evident. It would have been interesting if I had used the active game log to ally with green, reinforce all to Bangkok to protect green's bonus and convinced green to deploy all to NY to spread the stacks out.

I may attempt to start using the game log in active SoC games for this type of discussion.

If I had taken this action and alerted the other players, what would have been your reaction to green's strength? Would it still have been to eliminate me?

[Viceroy63]

Red here. while it may seem premature o start looking in round 2 at the possibility of eliminating someone, that is one part, one important part of the F4M guidelines - always knowing who is the weakest player, and even more importantly, whether or not you can eliminate him. Two separate questions. . In a map with settings - Terminator, sunny, unlimited forts- the search for answers to those two questions should be a priority. we also need to keep in mind the flip side all the other players are looking at the chances of eliminating This started to be my focus in plans for round three

Hi Fewnix;

First of all I think that we need to understand that the F4M are not commandments written in stone to be obeyed or we are put to death if we disobey. The F4M are really guidelines which if we follow we should be OK in the formation of our game. This does not mean that there are not exceptions to those guidelines which would serve us better not to follow the F4M. For example, A hypothetical situation...

It is your turn to play. It is the first move. Your drops are Chicago and New York, two neighboring regions. Also you have Moscow and Stockholm, another two neighboring regions. And your final three drops are all in the south of Oceania. So you got Perth, Sydney and Port Moresby. And just to sweeten the deal there is only 1 troop on Jakarta. All your regions have 3's on them. What do you do?

The F4M states that on the first move you "Deploy Only" and do not attack on round 01. And if that was a command then that is what we should do. But obviously in such a hypothetical situation as this one, it would greatly be to our advantage to assault Jakarta and take Oceania in that first turn. Thus the F4M is a guide to us which states that all things be equal and even, the best thing to do would be to "Drop Only" and do not attack. But obviously when a situation presents itself that is toward our best interest, to follow the suggestions of the F4M is then only to our detriment. Our own harm.

Let us also notice that the F4M only mentions to be alert of weaker players starting in Move 4. That's because the first three moves are really Survival moves. You very well can't be thinking of eliminating any players when your priority should be based on the survival of the game. That's what the F4M first three moves is really all about. Survival. Building up numbers, combining stacks of 3's into stacks of 5's because stacks of 3's are easier to kill then stacks of 5's.

For example, if a stack of 7 assaulted a stack of 5 the assault may very well fail simply because the odds of two dice would allow a double chance of a 6 or other high number to come out for the defender. Where as if the defender only had one die to defend himself with then his only hope might be a six because out of three dices attacking, one of them got to beat the defenders die. So 7 troops against 5 troops are not good chances of winning. But a stack of 7 can more easily take on two stacks of 3's and have room for dessert.

That's because after the stack of 7 gets the first two troops then that last troop can only use one die. and so the 7 wins easily there and if only four are left, 4 vs 3 on the second stack of 3's, the odds are better then 7v5 simply because if by sheer luck the first roll eliminates the first two defending troops then the defender is once again reduced to only one die. So it is more conceivable that a stack of seven has better chances against two stacks of 3's then a single stack of 5. Or look at it this way, two stacks of 3's will be using a single die in their defense, twice, but a stack of 5 will only be using a single die in it's defense just the one time. every roll in a stack of 5 will be two dice until the last troop. That makes a stack of 5 harder to kill then two stacks of 3's.

So it's all about survival. That is what the F4M really is; A survival guide. and that is why we "Deploy Only" and do not attack and combine our stacks and all of that. But then in the fourth move, now we can keep our eyes open for potential targets because if we did the first 3 moves correctly, we should be surviving and thriving. If we did not, then it makes no sense to keep alert as to weaker targets because then we are the weaker targets being looked at.

The only reason why I just went into such detail about this is because your focus up to now should not be about looking for easy targets but about survival and that is all. The first 3 moves is all about survival. Survival and growing strong because no weakling survives for too long.

[Viceroy63]

Good comments.

This debrief shows the the risk/reward of bonuses.

Playing strategically with hindsight,my weakness to red is evident. It would have been interesting if I had used the active game log to ally with green, reinforce all to Bangkok to protect green's bonus and convinced green to deploy all to NY to spread the stacks out.

I may attempt to start using the game log in active SoC games for this type of discussion.

If I had taken this action and alerted the other players, what would have been your reaction to green's strength? Would it still have been to eliminate me?

Under the same circumstances I would still have eliminated Blue when I did simply because if I did not some one else would. Better it be me then another.

But lets keep in mind that this is still only round 03. We are jumping the gun when we analyze what has not happen yet. If we analyze the whole game in this round then what will we have left to say for those rounds. when we get to them.

So far everyone is playing well and doing their best. Up to this point. The next round is the round that truly shows some of the errors and horrors of our play.

[Viceroy63]

Red here.

The most likely target for me to eliminate in round 6 is Blue currently the weakest player on the map with 19 troops and 3 spoils. Assuming my plan listed above works, in round , 5 I would have 18 troops basically adjacent to blues 19 or so troops, depending on what happens between rounds. With only a 3 deploy and a set only IF I I pick up a third red this round ,that would give me about 25 troops to eliminate 20? or so blue troops. possible but not likely, and I hear you teach, trying would just make me a target,.>

But If I take a spoils this round and a spoils round 5, I start round 6 with 4 spoils, I could have a set to cash and that set could be worth more than 4. if someone has cashed a set, While there are other possibilities, blue is most likely to be the weakest player then , I would probably have a reasonable chance of eliminating him and then and it would trying. Blue is about my rank so eiminating him would give me about 20 points virtually guaranteeing I do not lose any points this game. Picking up blues 5 spoils would give me another set and a good chance to survive and eliminate at least one more player, before being eliminated. giving me a net gain of over 20 points . Etc.

I sincerely hope that I am not sharing too much information here with everyone. I wouldn't want to bore anyone. If I am wrong in anything that I write I am sure that sooner or later an instructor will make a correction in what I am saying. I think however that the important thing and the purpose of this debriefing is to just share our thoughts and ideas because the truth of the matter is that when we try to teach others by sharing our thoughts, even if we are wrong about something, we still learn and get more from the sharing then if we just stay quite. Some how just participating in the thing, whatever it may be helps us to learn and to appreciate and to grow then when we just only read and sit stagnantly, and so I sure would like to see more participation in this thread just to see more people understand what it is that I just finished saying. I am sure that Fewnix understands 100% what I am talking about here. If you never leave your house, then you never go anywhere.

Now one thing that I am learning, just like I am sure that Fewnix is as well; Is that when you eliminate another player, if you do not do it in a proper fashion and way then you yourself get eliminated. I am learning that eliminating other players in rounds 6 through 8 is way to early for that kind of activity unless you do it correctly, and here is why.

In a 6 player escalating game, assuming that everyone has been earning spoils on every play since round 02, the last person to trade their spoils for troops in round 06 will have received 15 troops for their spoils. That's about half of the total averages of troops per player. In other words, the average player would or should have about 25 or 35 troops by the end of round 06. How do we know this? Lets do the math.

We start out with 7 regions times 3 troops per region, that's 21 troops. We gain an additional 3 troops times 5 rounds, that's 15 troops. for a total of 36 troops. Assuming that we lose about 9 troops or so because our single troops will be taken by other players who will be carding off of us and we also may lose an average of 1 troop per round trying to get spoils perhaps even more, brings our total troop count to 25 - 30 troops or so by the end of round 05. So in round 06 we have an average of about anywhere from 30 to 40 troops on the board that's including the spoils trade in, which is obligatory in round 06. That's assuming that everyone plays by the book.

It is rare to see anyone with a spoils trade in round 07 and so in round 08 the spoils trade begin at 20 troops for the first trade perhaps 25 if anyone had traded again in round 07. Usually people just hold on to them cards looking for a higher trade in. At any rate to use a spoils trade of say 30 troops to eliminate a player who has 30 troops in round 08 leaves you at the same troop strength as you started unless that player has a set for you to trade in. If they do then you are right where you should be if not better off at around 50 troops or so but if not then you are left behind at about 25 troops or so and easy prey for the next player to come along and eliminate you from the game.

So any thought's of eliminating any other players in round 06, 07 or even 08 is way to premature and risky at best. The right and proper time to think about eliminating another player from the game would be around round 09 and up when the spoils trade in would more then make up for what you would lose in eliminating another player. otherwise you may be eliminating a player with 30 troops only to gain 20 or 25 troops in return. In other words it would be like taking a step backwards in terms of troops strength and survivability. You could eliminate someone early enough in round 06 or 07 and then find yourself eliminated in round 08 because you would be just to weak to defend yourself from another player by then. It would be better to wait and see who might try such a thing and then eliminate that player gaining a much better trade in of troops in return. At least in those early rounds.

[Fewnix]

F4M as Opening Move and a reply to some points

Much of this discussion involves the First Four Moves( F4M) that are the core of SoC teaching and that we should all attempt to master. Here's my thoughts and an attempt to reply to some points..

I see F4M as an excellent "opening move" covering the first phase of a Terminator game, played on the Classic map with settings - sunny escalating spoils, unlimited fort. As in chess the opening moves cover only the first phase ot the game , the other phases being the middle game and the endgame. While there are defense elements in F4M, decreasing the chances of you being eliminated early in the game, it is strong on offense, putting you into a position where the odds favour you making 1-2 kills per game (winning 25% or so) and "that will be enough to see your score move up and your fun increase",

Sorry Vice, F4M tells us, I believe correctly, that in the first move, except in certain situations, you should pass on trying for a spoils and concentrate on building up the stacks, It also tells us you may pass on getting a spoils in the second round, if the circumstance are not right, but should look to taking one if reasonable. If you have not taken a spoils in the first two moves, you should look to getting spoils your third and fourth moves, even in unfavourable circumstances. Putting that together, as the game enters round 5 and the middle game begins, you, and most of the other players, should have 2 or 3 spoils - a pass in one of the first 4 moves equals 3 spoils, a pass in two of the first 4 moves equals 2 spoils.You should also have a reasonable number of troops 20+ concentrated on 3 to 5 stacks 6+? in different parts of the map- North America, Europe, Eastern Asia?..

I try in the first four moves to:

Always know who is the weakest player and whether or not you can eliminate him

.

That doesn't mean that I would try to eliminate someone in the first four moves, most likely the odds would be against a successful attempt., but I would attempt to know from teh beginning of the game to the end, if there is someone I could eliminate or am close to eliminating and adjust my play accordingly..

At round 5 we can say the middle game begins, with most players in the game looking for someone they have a reasonable chance of eliminating. There will almost certainly be one or more elimination attempts by round 9, quite possibly by round 8 and possible by round 7 or even 6 or even 5. I see any attempt to eliminate someone, whether tried by you or someone else, whether successful or not, as the start of the end game. . Not the end of the game. though it may be the end for someone, the start of the end game.,

[Viceroy63]

10476657 Game Log Round 04

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 04

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Viceroy63 Reply To Fewnix

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[Kiwi_NZ]

I split my troop deploy here,I think it was wise,as to build equal stacks across the board.

I just read >
Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 04
hindsight is a good thing,most likely the right thing to do,with my troop deploy here

[Viceroy63]

I split my troop deploy here,I think it was wise,as to build equal stacks across the board.

I just read >
Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 04
hindsight is a good thing,most likely the right thing to do,with my troop deploy here

Hind sight is an excellent way to learn tactics. All the best boxers watch videos of themselves in previous fights to see what they did wrong and not do it again. Also the military is famous for teaching from past battles lost what the mistakes were so that future general will not repeat those mistakes.

That is why this "Debriefing of Game 10476657" is an excellent study tool. You just can't beat pictures for learning from. I could write a thousand words and it may not even be worth the picture up there of round 04. But what really makes this worth the while is your participation in this event.

So, Thank You Kiwi_NZ, for your comment and participation! It is much appreciated.

[dhallmeyer]

Good analysis Viceroy, not much I could add. It's painful watching green and pink at this point.

[Viceroy63]

Thank You Dhallmeyer;

Just dropping by and paying us a visit means a lot to us especially me. =)

Tomorrow I will be posting Round 05. That's the Round where the shite hits the fans.

[kierkegaard_2]

Blue here. Thx 4 advice. That would have been best.

[Viceroy63]

Blue here. Thx 4 advice. That would have been best.

kierkegaard_2, Blue would have done better moving his stacks further away from one another. His stack in Astana is right next to his stack in Hong Kong. Why? You do not need two stacks right next to each other as it defeats the purpose of having stacks. You might just as well then make one very strong Hong Kong stack.

What Blue should have done in this round is to deployed 1 troop on Nairobi and 2 on Astana. Assault Moscow from Astana, advancing all troops. Also I would have moved the stack on Hong Kong to Manila. That way those two stacks would have been as far away as possible from each other and the Stack in Manila would be away from Green's stack of 11 troops. At what ever point that Green sees Blue as a threat, Blue is toast.

The whole point of the game is to survive first and then to win. With the lost of his regions in the America's in round 03, Blue is in a weakened state. Blue's only mission now should have been to run and hide and live to fight another day. Thus you move the stacks as far away as possible from each other so as to make them harder to kill. It could also just have been possible for Blue to move that stack little by little across Europe and into the Americas. Who can say?
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Hi kierkegaard_2:

If you are referring to the above assessment of your move then I can only hope that we both have learn something that we can both take with us into future games. When I was in that game with you, that thought never occurred to me either. It was only now upon re-examining this game that this thought had occurred to me. That is why it is all so important that people participated and share what they learn. That sharing does not seem to be happening too much in this debriefing. It's like no one really understand with the exception of one or two what a valuable tool this really is.

It's not the fact that I am looking at these and coming up with these suggestion but that all of us could be doing the very same thing. Many computers hooked up together and networking can and are more powerful then just one computer processing information all by himself. What I get from this exercise many will never come to know. If you only knew that I do this by myself. I play a game and then I review my own game. Especially the ones that I lost.

The idea of a mock up game has been suggested by myself and others as well in order to illustrate the basic reasoning of the F4M and other tactical play and positions. The pros and cons of many diverse ideas such as BMing or attacking prematurely. When to attack and when not to and those sort of things. But it is a large undertaking. Or does any one think that these photos of the game just happen by themselves. No, they do not. I have many more photos of all the players moves but I am only showing the first player photo. All the other moves in that round can be extrapolated from that photo.

This is an idea that I really wanted to share with others but sadly the world may not be ready for it. If I must remind everyone to visit here and not to forget to leave an input and a comment then they surely are not interested. For this reason I will no longer be sending out post messages to the players of this game but will just leave this as it is an open forum and that anyone can comment on if they wish. Otherwise I may become know as a spammer or worse.

So I am glad that you enjoyed the assessment and I hope that you continue to stop by and read the other rounds but I hope that if you leave a comment it is because you sincerely desire to do so. I don't want any one to feel under any obligation to leave me a "thnx" Just because I reminded them that the next round has been posted.

[Viceroy63]

10476657 Game Log Round 05

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 05

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[dhallmeyer]

It's a train wreck. Gruesome and gory, but I can't take my eyes away.

[Viceroy63]

I can not tell you from my heart just how much I am learning here, especially from the mistakes of others. I realize that many are reading this thread and perhaps learning from it as well but the original players of this game could contribute so much more and gain themselves that much more in the process.

What I wanted from this can not be fully realized but that's OK. At least this thread will be here for future use to all who will learn from this thread. When I finish this one I will start another one and will continue to do so, as I can't help but feel what an important learning tool this really is.

And you stopping by, really helps me to feel supported in this endeavor.

-Thank You Dhallmeyer.

[Kiwi_NZ]

2012-02-02 19:59:57 - Kiwi_NZ received 3 troops for 5 regions
2012-02-02 20:00:06 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 2 troops on Istanbul
2012-02-02 20:00:15 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 1 troops on Montreal
2012-02-02 20:00:35 - Kiwi_NZ assaulted Madrid from Istanbul and conquered it from ronshippau
2012-02-02 20:00:45 - Kiwi_NZ ended the turn and got spoils

At the time I thought equaling out my stacks was the best,
but In hindsight,I didnt keep an out out for the weakest link > blue
I'm now doing this before and after my moves,I've read the soc guide,a few times,but my human nature is to skip read at times,even though,I read the bit about the weakest player

[Viceroy63]

2012-02-02 19:59:57 - Kiwi_NZ received 3 troops for 5 regions
2012-02-02 20:00:06 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 2 troops on Istanbul
2012-02-02 20:00:15 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 1 troops on Montreal
2012-02-02 20:00:35 - Kiwi_NZ assaulted Madrid from Istanbul and conquered it from ronshippau
2012-02-02 20:00:45 - Kiwi_NZ ended the turn and got spoils

At the time I thought equaling out my stacks was the best,
but In hindsight,I didnt keep an out out for the weakest link > blue
I'm now doing this before and after my moves,I've read the soc guide,a few times,but my human nature is to skip read at times,even though,I read the bit about the weakest player

Do you know that at the time I did not even considered Blue as well? I don't think that anyone really did and when it fell into my laps I was like, Dame! what good luck. I was not trying to be ready for blue or anything and if anyone else had blocked me it would not have been me who won that game but some one else. I am learning here, just like you are.

But yeah, one needs to think just a few moves ahead. I don't know if you read the SoC Newsletter but soon I will be posting a three part article about BM's. It will be basically this game that I will use as an example. But it's in good taste, I promise. Hope you subscribe to the Newsletter.

Oh and one thing that I learn, now that you mention it is that at some point you can't just be evenly divided. You need to set an objective and set your troops in that direction but always the timinng is crucial. You don't want to leak your hand before time and let everyone know what your up to but sooner or later you must make your intentions clear.

Watch me and learn as we all learn from one another.

[Viceroy63]

With a failed attempt at eliminating Blue, Green goes back home in a fit of depression. Just like the dinosaurs who dominated this planet for 150 million years and that was no guarantee of survival, so also does dominating an entire bonus zone does not guarantee a successful elimination.

I want to point out something here. I don't know if Green used the right click or not and he is certainly not debriefing us that information and I am not about to drag him in here for a confession, if he wants to share, he knows where the office is; But I suppose that Green used the right click on the assault and conquer of Hong Kong.

I am not sure how that Atmospheric Noise Random Dice thrower works But at least we know to blame the Atmospheric Noise when we get bad dice. =) But my point is, and mind you all that I am just learning this along with all of you at this same time, but in a critical elimination like this one when failure could mean your own extinction, I think it would be best to go with the regular click and be able to step on the brakes if things go to badly.

I think that what had happen was that Green right clicked and then saw that there was 1 Blue troop to his 3 troops and screamed as loud as he could. "DDDDDDAAAAAAMMMMMMMNNNNNNN IT!!!!!!

I could have sworn that's what I heard that night and I thought that it was some one in the streets in front of my house but now that I think about it; It was Green, that night. I'm sure of it now.

Anyway realizing that he lost 17 or 18 troops in that one right click, he figured, "why not, might as well." And so Green just clicked away the last troops. But at least he got Hong Kong?!

[dhallmeyer]

Sometimes single clicking and losing is harder to stop than Auto. Hard to say what actually happened from this vantage point.

[Viceroy63]

Sometimes single clicking and losing is harder to stop than Auto. Hard to say what actually happened from this vantage point.

That's true; But when you get to the point when you see that you don't have enough troops left to finish the job, then you might, just maybe, if you have any self control left, figure, "I better stop." I'm just saying that if you have that kind of self control then regular click would be the way to go. I thinks so anyway. I think that I would have at least stopped at 04 troops left Because there would not have been enough troops for the job then.

But perhaps your right and the emotion of being there is different than the logic of hindsight?

[Viceroy63]

10476657 Game Log Round 06

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 06

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Viceroy63 Game Form for Round 06

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[dhallmeyer]

Even in a term game, stretching for a kill when the spoils are that low is dangerous. You haven't reached replacement value, even with a double cash. Better to wait, even if it means someone else gets the points.

[Viceroy63]

You mean for green to try to take out Blue? I agree. But I see what you mean; You only lose more troops then you gain at this point and become weakened by it.

Thanks for mentioning it. I shall add that to the assessment of round 06.

Very good point to make. Thanks Dhallmeyer.

[Fewnix]

Thanks to Vice and the SoC for this discussion - much fun and much to learn.

My decision to go for the elimination and the fine tuning involved, working with the mighty and masterful Macbone. I see the first four moves, F4M, as teaching an opening move strategy, positional play and working the odds to have fun and win points, without trying to eliminate every player in every game. It's a numbers game.

Keep in mind that you will not win every game you play with these tactics: even the best among us only win 25-30%. What we have learned is that we can make 1-2 kills per game (winning 25% or so) and that will be enough to see your score move up and your fun increase.

Your Plans: Cash my set and eliminate green,

My set will give me 10 plus a 2 auto -deploy on Capetown F5 where I already have 4. That Capetown F5 6 and the 8 I have on Dubai A1 would give me 14 troops and a good shot at eliminating greens 7 on South America - 14 v7 . To up the odds a bit, I plan to deploy one (just one 1) on Capetown giving me 15 v 7 a 8 surplus. I have only one troop on Mumbai to attack the 5 green on Oceania, so I plan to depoly 12 there, Mumbai A6 giving me 13 v 5 another 8 surplus. I am open to fien tuning the deply.

Once I eliminate green I will have points for the elimination and a reasonable chance of survivng to cash my newly acquired 5 set and eliminate another player. I may want to set up a string of doubletons to increase my chacne of survvial,noting:

Yellow, the player after me and the to be elimianted green, will have to cash a set worth 12 and starting with 24 troops has some chance of eliminating someone and running the board . Perhaps more importantly, pink, the player after yellow will have to cash a set wotrh 15 and with 34troops currently and a 6 deploy could run the board. Cyan with 44 troops and 3 spoils may be able to cash the set and run the board. If I survive to the next round. I will have a set worth 20 and some chance of taking out another player and running the board.

P.s. There is some chance I could eliminate yellow and get his 5 cards, cash them and then eliminate green, run the board.. but there is not a good chance and trying would weaken me for elimination and a net losss of points..

The above respectfully submitted.
your student,
Fewnix

Re: Basic Terminator 10476657 -student Fewnix
by macbone on Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:31 am

Fast-moving game, eh? One player down already, and another about to die, and it's only Round 6. By all means, Fewnix, fien tune that deply! =)

You're faced with a dilemma here. Do you go for a kill, perhaps evening your points won/lost, or do you play for the win? Yellow is tempting, but your chances are only about 27% of taking him out.

If you go for the green kill, you're going to be depleted in troops and ripe for elimination.

I usually deduct -2 from each additional stack in a particular kill run, since you won't attack usually from there with 3 or less, although in this case, a 3v1 is certainly doable. I'd advise 2 more on Cape Town, not 1 more, and only 11 on Mumbai.

This will give you 14 v 3,2,1,1 (89% success) and 12 v 1,1,1,1,1 (93.5%), for an overall 83% chance of success. This will likely leave you very weak, however, and Yellow and Cyan are in particular positioned to take you out, given the cards and good dice.

I'd like to see you play for the win, but in this case, you might as well go for the low-hanging fruit. Good luck, man!

[dhallmeyer]

I wasn't saying that you should never go for a kill in the early rounds, because there are some players who just NEED killing. But you have to be tactful about it, and not suicide yourself for a small reward. Hangings are a great thing, but you have to be careful about how hard you work to clean up after one that will not start a sweep. That's the key question: Will eliminating this player leave me in a better or worse position?