Conquer Club

surely there is no such thing, correct? some people seem to win all their 3v3s...

also, is it true that being patient between attacks increases the odds of winning an attack?

graci

No and no. It's done by random.org, a site for RANDOMness.[/u]

Basic strategy says 3v3 =

there is no such thing as random.Everything follows one pattern or another.Rolling 9 straight 1's surely doesn't not seem random,let alone realistic.

I'm not sure on this. I just took on 6 to8 and took two countrys and had one left to fortify with. I say random yes.

With a site the size of CC, and sets of 2-5 random numbers being generated all the time, you're going to have a pattern like that eventually.

Are people ever going to give up on this dice thing? seriously? It all evens out in the long run...yes sometimes the dice are definately against you however nobody ever posts a " HOLY MY 4 JUST TOOK OUT A 10 " trust me it happens...download the dice analyzer and see for yourself. On my analyzer I am below norm by over 2% but still have a decent winning record.

-Sub-

here here, subjekt. I have seen three opponents just ruin themselves because of the dice, yet i was fortunate to have good rolls at the same time. just lucky i guess. BTW i have been on the other end of the dice taking on 18 to 8 and losing.

I think we can all agree that one pattern is definately seen...rolling 3 against 2(so you have 4 or more guys vs his 2 or more)-Alot of the times the 5 rolls are either quite low or quite high?Lets start there-Yes or No.Not everytime,just most of the time

Quoting random.org

Surprising as it may seem, however, it is difficult to get a computer to do something by chance. A computer running a program follows its instructions blindly and is therefore completely predictable.
Computer engineers chose to introduce randomness into computers in the form of pseudo-random number generators. As the name suggests, pseudo-random numbers are not truly random. Rather, they are computed from a mathematical formula or simply taken from a precalculated list. A lot of research has gone into pseudo-random number theory and modern algorithms for generating them are so good that the numbers look exactly like they were really random. Pseudo-random numbers have the characteristic that they are predictable, meaning they can be predicted if you know where in the sequence the first number is taken from. For some purposes, predictability is a good characteristic, for others it is not.



This really sounds as if they are sayin the two types are equal,when their not.I guess its just a matter of everyone perceives these words and everything else

Rolling 9 straight 1's surely doesn't not seem random

the chance to roll 9 straight 1's is 1/(6^9)=1/10,077,696
statistically it's bound to happen.
say we have 2000 active players rolling an average of 200 rolls (40 attacks) a day we get 400,000 rolls a day, that is 10,000,000 in 25 days so statistically this should happen ones a month.

and if you think your very unlucky... why not check get this dice analyzer:
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5655

pel6412 wrote:

Rolling 9 straight 1's surely doesn't not seem random

the chance to roll 9 straight 1's is 1/(6^9)=1/10,077,696
statistically it's bound to happen.
say we have 2000 active players rolling an average of 200 rolls (40 attacks) a day we get 400,000 rolls a day, that is 10,000,000 in 25 days so statistically this should happen ones a month.

Well. Nah.

Every time you roll a dice, there’s statistically a 1/6 chance of rolling a 1. The next time you roll it, you still have a 1/6 chance. Each throw is completely separated from the previous ones.

Rolling 9 straight 9’s? Well, it may never happen and it may happen two times in a row. Just because something is statistically possible, doesn’t mean it will happen sooner or later.

An example: If there’s a 1/100.000.000 chance of a plane crashing each time a plane takes off from a particular airport, doesn’t mean that a plane will crash eventually. You can have two consecutive plane’s crashing. Or a plane may never crash.

However, throwing the CC dice isn’t of course the same as real one though. It depends on how the underlying program works. But no, it’s not a perfectly random dice.

Misiek wrote:there is no such thing as random.Everything follows one pattern or another.Rolling 9 straight 1's surely doesn't not seem random,let alone realistic.

Yes. That is a correct observation. If you take notes of your dice rolls, you will be able to detect patterns.

The problem of course is this: You can only detect the patterns afterwards. The clear, refreshing view of hindsight.

Every time you attack, the CC dice uses this random number program. Before you attack, you will not be able to predict the outcome. The patterns you may see afterwards is coincidental here.

Again: For every attack, you have the same chances of succeeding as you had the last time you attacked. Each attack is separate from the previous ones.

(With this said, patterns may be useful of course. But not for predicting your next attack.)

I'm glad you guys see what I am trying to show here.It is not that easy to explain.Thats an interesting link,thanks.I was always reluctant towards using the die analyzer, but I will give it a shot. I am not sure if this is going to help anyone but when I really need to roll good here is what I do:

-How many times on your first attack do you lose 2 or split it?Well I noticed it happens almost everything,ofcourse I cannot give you the numbers but I will work on that.Well when I lose 2 on my first attack I quickly press auto attack the next time.Most of the time I will win without the defender making any sort of a major stand.

-I have ALWAYS been doing auto-attack(lack of time haha),but recently I stopped and noticed that If I my rolls are big(4/5/6's) and the defenders are low(usually 1,1 or 1,2) I wait for some period of time before attacking again. Whats happens when I continue normally I always end up losing 2 the next time.Using this strategy I have taken out alot of medium sized armies (Most notably in the Canada map when I needed to get through 24 guys with my 19.I ended up losing 5 men and managed to wipe the player out not only gaining a region with a well defended border now but also his cards.

I know these are very silly,and ofcourse maybe I just trying to make myself believe that there is a way to atleast somehow predict the rolls but if your interested I guess you could pay attention to the rolls the next time you attack.

Yea, i've done the exact same thing for the same reasons, and it seemed to work. The truth of the matter is that there really are dice gods, and their moods are hard to read some times.

I was under the impression that blocks of rolls were stored in the CC code and constantly replenished, rather than getting each individual roll from wherever they get their random numbers from. If this is the case then you 8, 9, or 10 straight 1's arent exactly connected if other people are taking their rolls of the stack as well.

just a thought. and I hope I made sense

podge wrote:I was under the impression that blocks of rolls were stored in the CC code and constantly replenished, rather than getting each individual roll from wherever they get their random numbers from. If this is the case then you 8, 9, or 10 straight 1's arent exactly connected if other people are taking their rolls of the stack as well.

just a thought. and I hope I made sense

No. That is not a good way to create a “random” dice.

What is done is (at least this is the impression I’ve gotten) that CC uses an external random generator for the dice.

This is a good thing. What you’re talking about is more like having a long list of possible combinations that are picked off one by one. No matter how you do this, it’s far from random. If for nothing else, because such a list seen as a whole would be a perfect statistical outcome. For example, you have a list containing 100 each of all possible dice combinations, and when all those numbers are up, you’ll start over. Reality isn’t that perfect.

Also: Just to correct myself above. When you’re calculating the possibility of rolling 9 straight 1’s - what you’re actually doing is calculating the number of possible combinations.

An example -
Rolling the following combination: 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1

is as likely (or unlikely) as rolling the following combination: 4 – 3 – 6 – 2 – 2 – 1 – 5 – 3 – 1

Misiek wrote:I'm glad you guys see what I am trying to show here.It is not that easy to explain.Thats an interesting link,thanks.I was always reluctant towards using the die analyzer, but I will give it a shot. I am not sure if this is going to help anyone but when I really need to roll good here is what I do:

-How many times on your first attack do you lose 2 or split it?Well I noticed it happens almost everything,ofcourse I cannot give you the numbers but I will work on that.Well when I lose 2 on my first attack I quickly press auto attack the next time.Most of the time I will win without the defender making any sort of a major stand.

-I have ALWAYS been doing auto-attack(lack of time haha),but recently I stopped and noticed that If I my rolls are big(4/5/6's) and the defenders are low(usually 1,1 or 1,2) I wait for some period of time before attacking again. Whats happens when I continue normally I always end up losing 2 the next time.Using this strategy I have taken out alot of medium sized armies (Most notably in the Canada map when I needed to get through 24 guys with my 19.I ended up losing 5 men and managed to wipe the player out not only gaining a region with a well defended border now but also his cards.

I know these are very silly,and ofcourse maybe I just trying to make myself believe that there is a way to atleast somehow predict the rolls but if your interested I guess you could pay attention to the rolls the next time you attack.

Ok. Calm down mate. You’re “quickly pressing the auto attack”. Honestly - and no disrespect intended - you might as well wear your lucky underwear when playing CC.

Auto-attack though. Dunno there. It’s interesting the kind of attacks/defenses coming out of it, but I think that is due to a different reason, not the function as such. The waiting, same there, interesting, but coincidental if you’re systematically waiting between each roll. Why? Because the CC game engine (as far as I know) is using an external random generator. Therefore, it’s quite unlikely that here would be a glitch in the CC code making magic tactics like that work. Really. Unless someone shows me statistics of 10.000-50.000 throws consequently using any of these tactics and those throws shows a remarkable difference from what it should be, I won’t believe it.

Predicting the rolls: Forget about it. You’re dealing with statistical certainties here. Anyway you turn it, you may discover some statistically interesting things if there is a glitch or two in the random generator, but that can nonetheless never grant you an ability to state anything but statistical numbers, absolute predictions – forget it.

obviously I didn't explain myself very well.
let's just say CC use random .org. CC ask random.org to generate say 50000 dice rolls that are then stored somewhere (don't ask me where) the 50000 rolls are replenished on a regular basis ie if 10000 are used today, then 10000 new rolls from random.org will be added to the bottom of the list.
as each attack is made the dice are picked of the top of the list used then discarded. and so the cycle continues.

podge wrote:obviously I didn't explain myself very well.
let's just say CC use random .org. CC ask random.org to generate say 50000 dice rolls that are then stored somewhere (don't ask me where) the 50000 rolls are replenished on a regular basis ie if 10000 are used today, then 10000 new rolls from random.org will be added to the bottom of the list.
as each attack is made the dice are picked of the top of the list used then discarded. and so the cycle continues.

Dunno. But still, how would that help you?

The point I was making is that when people say they have rolled 9 consecutive 1's, if the numbers are stored the way I say, then the 9 1's might not be consecutive if other people are attacking at the same time. An example. lets say player A attacks and gets three 1's, at the same time player B is attacking and gets lets say 6,5,4, when player A attacks again and gets three 1's it looks like the generator has rolled 6 straight 1's which is not the case. It would be 1,1,1,6,5,4,1,1,1

podge wrote:The point I was making is that when people say they have rolled 9 consecutive 1's, if the numbers are stored the way I say, then the 9 1's might not be consecutive if other people are attacking at the same time. An example. lets say player A attacks and gets three 1's, at the same time player B is attacking and gets lets say 6,5,4, when player A attacks again and gets three 1's it looks like the generator has rolled 6 straight 1's which is not the case. It would be 1,1,1,6,5,4,1,1,1

Yes. But still, that won't help you.

Are you being deliberately obtuse ? I wasn't asking to be helped.

podge wrote:Are you being deliberately obtuse ? I wasn't asking to be helped.

No. I wasn’t sarcastic. But the thing is that the thread more or less has turned into a thread about predicting the dice or tweaking the odds of the dice. That’s what I’m referring to. This knowledge won’t really matter (if it is indeed in this way it works).

my posts have in no way been about predicting or tweaking anything. The point I was trying to get across (and it is aimed at the people who think the dice generator has generated 9 straight 1's) is that if the dice are generated in the way I say, then even though you have 9 straight 1's, that doesn't mean that the generator has produced 9 straight 1's.

I'm afraid I can't explain any better than I have, but I know what I am talking about.
And thats not meant to be as cocky as it sounds, it just means I can't get it across to you.

bad rolls happen no more often than good rolls, they just seem to happen all together at the most crucial times